Comments on: Is unemployment only 9.5%? A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 By: Robert Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:01:59 +0000 Sure seems a lot worse than what it is. Even those with jobs are paying more for groceries, fuel, health insurance, taxes, tuition, etc. And many employed are part-timers with no benefits at all, so they’re struggling too.

By: dsquared Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:27:45 +0000 Felix, this is pretty horribly ignorant stuff. From Norris:

“For some reason, October is the month with the largest seasonal adjustment down in jobs”

oooh wonder why? Perhaps it could be that October is the month in which a new year’s graduate intake enters the workforce?? And so if only 80,000 jobs were added, this implies that a substantial proportion of that graduate intake did not actually find a job and remains on the unemployment rolls?

“there is no way I can think of to test whether the seasonal adjustments are reliable”

of course! no way at all! because these numbers are just made up out of thin air by the BLS, perhaps by throwing darts at a board! Seasonal adjustment is just some sort of funny Freakonomics stuff with no basis in statistical fact!

Every single recession brings with it a late autumn crop of people who have discovered seasonal adjustment for the first time and use the autumn seasonals to claim that “really” things are going better. It is followed by the apring/summer crew of permabears using the positive seasonals to claim that the government is covering up how bad things really are. The one follows the other with a regularity which is, well, seasonal.

By: KenG Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:09:09 +0000 Is LazyFelixDoesIt Again Ben Stein?

By: Lazy Felix Does It Again... Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:43:17 +0000 Oh, so contrary Felix! How astute of you to regurgitate day-old Norris and pretend it is telling us something new.

Calculated Risk at least provided some new perspective on the issue when it commented on the not-very-helpful musings by Norris. What did we get from the Felix the Fisherman? Nothing but by-catch.