Opinion

Felix Salmon

I’m getting emotional

Felix Salmon
Nov 23, 2009 20:04 UTC

The Fund seeks to provide qualified investors with an opportunity to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investment in Emotional Assets. Its objective is to deliver a stable target growth rate of 15% per annum, with predictable volatility – at the same time preserving capital.

This is not satire. It’s real, and the fund manager is even giving quotes to the FT:

“Most fund managers over-promise and under-deliver. With emotional assets, there are no synthetic assets or fancy structures.”

Somehow the irony of a fund manager denigrating over-promising while still pledging to deliver stable 15% returns is never remarked upon.

In any event, I have it on good authority that next up will be the Emotional Liabilities Fund. Go ahead and monetize those neuroses!

COMMENT

Is it based in Palm Beach? Sounds like Madoff II.

Posted by Jon H | Report as abusive

The fiscal-prudence debate

Felix Salmon
Nov 23, 2009 19:34 UTC

Edmund Andrews has a long front-page story today on what he calls “the United States’ long-term budget crisis” — and has occasioned a strangulated “Urg” out of Paul Krugman in doing so. Krugman wrote a very smart blog entry on Friday (Tyler Cowen called it one of the best recent economics posts in some time) which talks about exactly the issue that Andrews is addressing — the question of whether and how the interest rates that the US pays on its borrowings might rise in future. But none of that nuance made it onto the NYT’s front page. Instead, we get this:

With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.

In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Economic forecasting is hard enough a few months out; trying to guess what a certain number is going to be in a decade’s time is a fool’s errand, and it’s sad that Andrews didn’t give the other side of the story. What’s more, this scary chart doesn’t seem quite as scary when you look at the y-axis:

debt.tiff

Most developed countries can cope quite happily with net interest payments around 3% of GDP. According to the OECD, Belgium is already at 3.8%, and Italy’s at 5.2%; the average for the euro area is 2.7%. So while there might be a big rise in this metric, it would be a big rise from a low level and to a number very much within the bounds of precedent.

None of which is to say that Andrews doesn’t raise an important question. But fiscal prudence is the kind of thing which get rich financiers like Pete Peterson and Bill Gross very excited; it doesn’t have nearly as much effect on the populace as a whole. Just ask the Japanese: if they’re having problems right now, it’s not because of their massive government debt. So it would have been nice to see a slightly less one-sided article.

COMMENT

To help Howard’s understanding. I am not repeating anyone’s piffle but Paul Krugman’s own. Perhaps you did not notice the date on Paul’s article but it is from March of 2003. At that time your vaunted GDP growth had been less than 2% for the previous year and had averaged less than 1.5% for the last two years. Unemployment had increased over the previous year (and would continue higher for another few months). In the second to last paragraph, Paul describes the economy as sputtering. Perhaps you were the only person regaling that period as a time of GDP growth but I am afraid I missed it at the time. At the time, Paul worried that when the economy did recover(which he was not predicting anytime soon), the fiscal deficits would lead to higher interest rates. I think it is a fair question to ask. Now as well as then.

Posted by John O'Meara | Report as abusive

Ackman’s auction-rate apartment

Felix Salmon
Nov 23, 2009 19:05 UTC

Bill Ackman has sold his huge apartment at the Majestic, which means he also needs to sell the baby 1BR one floor down that he bought in 2007 for $450,000. (How baby? It’s 322 square feet; that’s smaller than the 406-square-foot living room in the apartment he just sold.)

Given the degree to which real estate values have plunged in the past two years, you might be surprised to learn that Ackman is asking $950,000 for the apartment — $2,950 per square foot, and well over double what he paid for the place. And the apartment faces west: it doesn’t even have a view of the park! (Ackman does claim to have spent more than $250,000 on renovations, but even accounting for that, he’s still set to make a substantial profit if he gets anything like the asking price.)

If, as seems likely, no one offers $950,000 before December 8, the apartment will be auctioned off by Ackman himself, who promises to “provide some excellent wines for participants”. Residents of the building should probably turn up for the win alone — and for the spectator sport of watching the bidding, of course. No word on whether Ackman’s setting a reserve, but I’m sure he’s familiar enough with the story of auction-rate securities to have a Plan C in hand if there aren’t any bids at all.

COMMENT

I’m impressed that he spent over $750 per sq. ft. just on renovations!

The role of the database in the financial crisis

Felix Salmon
Nov 23, 2009 15:38 UTC

It’s over a year old now, but this paper, by Norm Cimon, is still very interesting for where it places the blame for a large part of the financial meltdown: the rise of computing power generally, and the relational database in particular.

All securitizations, after all, are based on computer analysis of a database of underlying assets. And Cimon explains:

The development of a good relational database design relies on the sort of cooperative effort that only exists in a handful of companies. That’s because extracting all the information from the involved parties is a daunting task. The rule of thumb is that it can represent upwards of 85% of the effort involved in re-engineering a corporation’s data assets, while the actual code to accomplish the job accounts for less than one-fifth of the work…

Now imagine coordinating the collection of such information across something as vast as the global mortgage-backed security industry which developed over the last 5-10 years. It never happened.

The investment banks and ratings agencies who were putting this stuff together simply never stopped to dot their i’s and cross their t’s — they were originating bonds at such a torrid pace that they didn’t have the time to make sure that reality was well represented in the way their models were constructed. Anybody who tried to create the kind of well-formed database that Ted Codd would be proud of would fall far behind the pack, and never sell anything.

Cimon concludes:

Weizenbaum’s book contains a very powerful argument for exerting human control over important business processes. He understood intuitively what we would end up doing to our accounting practices, our banking concerns, our investment houses, and all the other institutions when easily automated tasks could thoughtlessly be driven by limitless computing power. With networked computers now cast by all organizations, including the financial sector, into the role of wizard-behind-the-curtain, we all live in Oz. It’s long past time we pull back the veil and call a halt to the mindless application of this supreme and supremely dangerous creation before the damage gets any greater.

In the age of zero-price computing power, it’s far too easy to cut corners and trust in black boxes. What’s more, it’s incredibly difficult for any regulator to audit such things: I don’t think the Fed or the SEC has a department of relational-database integrity. Maybe they should think about starting one up.

COMMENT

First, I want to thank Felix for asking if he could post this after I sent it off to him. I’d come across the Wired article he’d written a few years back (http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazin e/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all) about the equation used to measure risk. The same issue had a companion piece about a coding system for tracking investments. It was obvious that both dovetailed with what I’d put together so I forwarded him a copy.I wrote it to make a point that still escapes many analysts: the way to make sense of mortgage-backed securities and other such instruments is not through the use of ever more sophisticated equations for risk but simply by tracking what’s in them. We’ve known how to do that for a long time. That we chose not to says some very disturbing things about the knowledge and/or honesty of the people who steered us into this train wreck.As for knowledge, books such as The Black Swan only hint at the reality of the world we’ve created. Statistical theory and it’s attempt to model the after-the-fact distribution of market investments is useful but only to a point. The likelihood is that the trading systems we’ve created are non-linear. If so, it’s entirely possible that feedback can force them onto trajectories that don’t look remotely like the ones typically modeled using statistics.It’s easy to get fooled. Such systems can look stochastic even when all the variables are strictly determined. So this is not about rational versus irrational actors (see Justin Fox’s Myth of the Rational Market for example: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/books/ review/Krugman-t.html). This can happen even as everyone acts quite rationally. It’s a property of the system itself. That may be what’s been built and what we’re watching operate.What’s deeply disturbing is that the quants seem to have no understanding of these systems, even though the major developments in the field have all come within the last 50 years. This isn’t about equations for risk, it’s about the possibility of slipping into a different set of trajectories or “orbits”, a different portion of the attractor for the system.Or do they know and not care? If so it’s dishonest. The money that’s been made in commissions and bonuses is almost beyond comprehension. A tacit admission that the system is prone to this sort of jolt may not be one they are willing to accept, or they can accept it to make public.Again, we can solve this by tracking what’s in those investment vehicles. That we can’t or won’t do it means one of two things. The financial institutions participating in these markets may be unable to organize itself well enough to do it. That’s a market failure. On the other hand they may be unwilling to do this because of the money that would be lost. Near-instantaneous feedback about the performance of the components would remove the latency in the current system. That would flatten those fees real quickly. That’s a moral failure and it means the system should be taken apart.

Posted by Norm Cimon | Report as abusive

Why BusinessWeek shouldn’t ape Time.com

Felix Salmon
Nov 23, 2009 14:05 UTC

Why was Josh Tyrangiel hired to be the new editor of BusinessWeek? One reason, the pundits agree, is that he successfully dragged Time — another weekly — onto the web. Ryan Chittum writes about “his eye-popping numbers at Time.com”, with pageviews rising from 400 million in 2006 to an estimated 1.8 billion this year, while Marion Maneker says that “he had tremendous success in building Time.com’s Web traffic over a few years”.

I’m an admirer of Tyrangiel too. But it would be depressing if Bloomberg’s brass hired him on the basis of his pageviews, because Time.com is an object lesson in how not to boost traffic. Reading Time.com is an exercise in frustration: the stories there are hugely painful to read. Barely-relevant links to other stories interrupt the flow on a regular basis; slideshows are everywhere; and in general it’s almost impossible to get through a whole story without being forced to visit multiple pages in doing so. Revealingly, no one’s talked much about Time.com’s uniques over the past few years, just its pageviews.

The last thing that Bloomberg should ever want to do with BusinessWeek.com is use such tactics. It might make sense for Time.com to operate in the CPM-driven junk-mail paradigm, where revenues rise with pageviews and therefore you maximize the latter to maximize the former. But BusinessWeek’s high-end readers won’t and shouldn’t put up with such shenanigans.

Tyrangiel’s job at BusinessWeek.com will be to build strong bonds with the readership — to make them loyal readers and to constantly exceed their expectations of what a website can deliver. That will help give Bloomberg the prestige and glory it wants from its consumer-media operations, and will also allow Bloomberg’s business-side staffers to position themselves happily at the high end of the market, selling relationships with readers rather than simply eyeballs-by-the-million. If BusinessWeek.com becomes half as annoying to read as Time.com is today, it will have failed, and Bloomberg is going to have to be careful to make sure that Tyrangiel undrinks the pageview Kool-Aid he quaffed so gluttonously at Time.

COMMENT

I read 21 national business news homepages for my blog about business journalism every weekday, the big nationals, ones you would expect. The one I have the most trouble deciphering is Reuters’.

Time lays out all of its business stories in one place where it is easy to find them and tell which ones are new. Reuters makes this a mess. Finding Matt Goldstein can take multiple clicks (although you are usually buttoned on top). There are days I only look at the top story because it’s the only one I can tell is new.

My cross-eyed list of most helpful homepages is:

1) The New York Times Business Section
2) The Wall Street Journal “In Today’s Paper”
3) Bloomberg News “Exclusives” section
4) Fortune.com homepage
5) Portfolio.com homepage (the one thing they did right)
6) NPR Marketplace homepage
7) Time.com business/tech homepage
8) Newsweek.com business/tech homepage

The ones that annoy me because it’s hard to figure out what’s new and featured…

1) Forbes.com (do any actual journalists contribute?)
2) Reuters.com (so much content, so hard to find)
3) BusinessWeek.com (so much content, so hard to find)
4) CNBC (a little busy and the highlighted stories are mostly not highlights)
5) CNN/Money for making it so hard to find Paul LaMonica.

Annals of news-burying, Overstock edition

Felix Salmon
Nov 22, 2009 08:08 UTC

Friday was the Financial Follies — which means that most of New York’s financial journalists descended on the Marriott Marquis for the evening. The joke going around was that Friday afternoon would be a great day to bury bad news, a la Jo Moore, on the grounds that even fewer people would be around to cover it than would normally be working on a Friday after the markets close.

But Overstock, it seems, took the joke literally, waiting until 4:02pm on Friday to announce that it had received a delisting notice from the Nasdaq. (And the wait was a long one: they received the letter the previous day.) Naturally, the headline of the release (“Overstock.com Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Notification Letter”) gives no hint as to the importance of the contents.

Gary Weiss, of course, noticed; I suppose we’ll have to wait until Monday to see whether the news has any effect on the stock.

Counterparties

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 22:41 UTC

Bad stock art

Vivendi, GE agree to interim payment on NBCU stake — Reuters

I’m now “the dark prince of the financial blogosphere”! — NYM

They Might Be Giants: “Meet the Elements”: Make your kid love chemistry! — YouTube

Signs the world is coming to an end: John Baldessari’s Catalog Raisonne launch party took place at the Fendi store — HuffPo

Sarah Palin angers her base — Rumproast

Ken Lewis’ replacement could be… Ken Lewis — Alacra

The secret behind Mona Lisa’s enigmatic smile — Telegraph

How ingrained is corruption in Albany? Even Joe Bruno’s personal secretary was stealing from Joe Bruno! — NYT

A huge infographic on the front page of the The Daily Herald in Everett, WA — Visual editors

The Paradou deathwatch begins, and I hope its owner loses a fortune — Gawker

Easterly hangs out with TESFA, a successful locally-owned tourism initiative in Ethiopia — Aid Watch

College students arrested for not paying tip — Philly

Vice magazine has audited Ebitda — FT

COMMENT

No, Bob, it was my bad. Fixed.

Posted by Felix Salmon | Report as abusive

How to fund the MTA

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 22:22 UTC

Alex Pareene has a wonderful rant about New York’s MTA, which picks up on this astonishing line from the Daily News:

In addition to the 2010 budget, the MTA released a four-year fiscal plan. It envisions 7.5% fare and toll hikes in 2011 and 2013 as the agency tries to establish a pattern of regular inflation-based increases.

‘Cos obviously consumer prices generally are going to rise by 15.5% between now and 2013.

Pareene also has a very good point about the fungibility of city revenues:

Fares are simply taxes—incredibly regressive taxes, just like the sales taxes that New York City residents suffer to fund our own transit while suburban New Yorkers bitch about the prospect of being charged to clog our streets with their cars, and Jersey dicks bemoan the tolls they have to pay to enter the city where they make all of their money while contributing nothing back.

This is one reason why Charles Komanoff’s plan for reducing MTA tolls while implementing a congestion charge makes so much sense — and it’s a reason which has yet to fully penetrate the consciousness of most New Yorkers. There’s no particular reason why the MTA’s revenues should cover the MTA’s costs, especially when the MTA benefits the city in so many other ways, such as reducing congestion and increasing possible population density and therefore total taxes. Yet somehow everybody seems to blindly accept that the MTA should cover most of its costs through selling MetroCards. Sad.

COMMENT

Pareene laments “suburban New Yorkers.” I’m not sure if the reader understands, though, that many outerborugh drivers–Queens, Staten Island, Brooklyn–use cars to commute to Manhattan. Just to clarify, those aligned against the tolls are not just non-NYC residents.

Posted by Bill | Report as abusive

Where to get 50x leverage on stock indices

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 21:43 UTC

Last Friday, Jason Kelly put up a very funny blog entry about his launch of a pair of fictional 100x levered ETFs, with the ticker symbols SOAR and SINK:

Kelly Capital will reset and relaunch the funds at the beginning of each trading day. The company is in talks with the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) about the possibility of relaunching the funds after lunch should they go bust in the morning session, but the SEC is balking. SEC spokesperson Ben Meriwether remarked, “We recognize the right of investors to employ as much leverage needed to find fortune or ruin in a day, we just aren’t sure of the need to extend that right twice per day.”

By Wednesday, Kelly was depressed enough about the email traffic he got in response that he posted an update:

A full 65% of people expressed an interest in owning products that would “go bankrupt within the course of most trading days.” A stunning 5% thought they already owned them. Only 30% of respondents got the humor.

John Carney picked up the datapoint in a blog entry headlined “Is It Possible To Invent An Investment Product Too Stupid To Find Buyers?” — something I then tweeted.

What none of us appreciated, however, is that products much like these already exist. As Amy Nauiokas Sean Park rightly notes, in the spread betting market, which is huge in the UK and elsewhere, 50-1 leverage is common. IG Index, for instance, gives an example of how a £10-a-point bet on the FTSE can generate a gain of £560 — or a loss of £480 — in one day.

Spread bets don’t exist in ETF form, but they’re essentially the same thing, just much more highly leveraged than any fund. They’re hugely popular in the UK — which just goes to prove that yes, if you offer an insanely leveraged way of betting on intraday moves in stock indices, there’s no shortage of people who will flock to your door. Even in boring old England.

COMMENT

Eh, how is that example of spread-betting telling you what the leverage is? That depends on how much margin you’re required to put up, and is probably more like 10-20x.

Posted by nivedita | Report as abusive

The Miller-Moore amendment’s not that bad!

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 19:53 UTC

John Jansen reprints some BarCap research on the Miller-Moore amendment, and now I think I understand why so many finance types are so scared by it: they’ve misread it!

Here’s BarCap:

Proposed by Reps. Miller (D) and Moore (D), it would effectively replace existing repo and secured funding with unsecured borrowing subject to a margin, or haircut, of up to 20%. Specifically, in the case that a large systemically important institution is put into receivership by the FDIC and there are not enough assets to cover the cost of unwinding it to the government, all secured claims would be automatically converted into unsecured loans with a haircut of up to 20%…

No secured lender will want to be left in a trade with a bank in receivership where the regulators have converted the transaction into an unsecured loan at 80% of the original amount.

But that’s not what the amendment is proposing. Here it is:

An allowed claim under a legally enforceable or perfected security interest (that became a legally enforceable or perfected security interest after the date of the enactment of this clause), other than a legally enforceable or perfected security interest of the Federal Government, in any of the assets of the covered financial company in receivership may be treated as an unsecured claim in the amount of up to 20 percent as necessary to satisfy any amounts owed to the United States or to the Fund. Any balance of such claim that is treated as an unsecured claim under this subparagraph shall be paid as a general liability of the covered financial company.

Let’s say you have a secured claim of $1 million on a bank which has been taken over by the FDIC, and let’s say that unsecured creditors of that bank end up being paid only 70 cents on the dollar.

If the BarCap reading were right, the FDIC would first impose a 20% haircut on the $1 million, turning it into $800,000, and then convert it into an unsecured loan — which, at 70 cents on the dollar, would be worth just $560,000. The net effective haircut would be a whopping 44%. But of course this makes no conceptual sense at all, because unsecured creditors would end up being treated better, under this scheme, than secured creditors.

The way I read it, however, the Miller-Moore amendment allows up to 20% of the secured debt to be converted into unsecured debt; the rest of it is untouched. So you retain $800,000 of secured debt, worth $800,000, and now the remaining $200,000 is unsecured debt, worth $140,000. All in all your $1 million claim is worth $940,000 — a net effective haircut of just 6%.

No one likes losing 6% of their money, of course, but that’s a hell of a lot better than losing 44% of your money. And maybe if the sell side begins to understand how Miller-Moore really works, they might be less averse to it.

(HT: Alloway)

COMMENT

It’s not even that bad. Secured creditors would lose nothing until shareholders and unsecured creditors had lost everything. So the haircut provision wouldn’t apply when a systemically significant financial firm teeters over into insolvency, it will only apply in spectacular, catastrophic collapses. Think of the Hindenberg.

It wouldn’t take a lot of underwriting to see something like that coming. The most likely candidates for the haircut would be existing creditors who demanded more and more collateral as the firm collapsed, jumping queue and exacerbating the liquidity crisis at the collapsing firm.

Also, the haircut would be discretionary. The FDIC could allow secured creditors who had taken collateral when the firm was solvent their full security interest, and just impose the haircut on creditors who had grabbed collateral from a firm that should already have been in receivorship.

I liked your calling the amendment a “spectaculary good idea” more than “not that bad,” but I’ll take it.

Posted by brad miller | Report as abusive

The SEC surrenders to the oil industry

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 16:44 UTC

What are the consequences of allowing multi-billion-dollar systemically important multinational corporations to report their assets using proprietary mark-to-model tools involving discredited Monte Carlo simulations? I think we all know the answer to that one. But unbelievably, after such shenanigans contributed enormously to the greatest financial meltdown in living memory, the SEC is now set to allow more or less exactly the same thing in the oil industry.

Otto points to a stunning report by oil consultant Alan von Altendorf which spells it all out. Up until now, oil companies needed to actually prove they had reserves before they reported proven oil reserves. Now, however, the SEC is allowing them to use internal, proprietary computer models to essentially pull their “proven reserve” numbers out of thin air (or the nearest friendly Monte Carlo simulation).

Von Altendorf goes into great detail about how such numbers are useless and meaningless, and how the “proven reserve” rules should probably be tightened, rather than loosened, given the number of enormous write-downs in proven reserves which have taken place across the oil industry in recent years.

So what’s the SEC thinking here? Frankly, it’s not thinking at all: this is just another case of regulatory capture. And a sign that, so far at least, nothing has changed at the unsalvageable and dysfunctional institution.

COMMENT

Are you implying that you actually believed any of the reported reserve numbers in the first place?

“…the SEC is allowing them to use internal, proprietary computer models to essentially pull their “proven reserve” numbers out of thin air (or the nearest friendly Monte Carlo simulation).”

Hasn’t OPEC done this since, uh, always?

Hitting secured creditors

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 15:34 UTC

Ira Stoll notes that the Miller-Moore amendment has passed. He calls it the “Bair-Miller-Moore Haircut”, and he doesn’t like it; I, on the other hand, think it’s a spectacularly good idea. This is the meat of it:

Payments to Fully Secured Creditors: Notwithstanding any other provision of law, in any receivership of a covered financial company in which amounts realized from the resolution are insufficient to satisfy completely any amounts owed to the United States or to the Fund, as determined in the receiver’s sole discretion, an allowed claim under a legally enforceable or perfected security interest (that became a legally enforceable or perfected security interest after the date of the enactment of this clause), other than a legally enforceable or perfected security interest of the Federal Government, in any of the assets of the covered financial company in receivership may be treated as an unsecured claim in the amount of up to 20 percent as necessary to satisfy any amounts owed to the United States or to the Fund. Any balance of such claim that is treated as an unsecured claim under this subparagraph shall be paid as a general liability of the covered financial company.

In English, this means that if you’re a secured creditor of a bank which has failed and which the federal government has to pay money to rescue, you are only guaranteed to receive 80% of your money back. Beyond that, you’re treated as an unsecured creditor.

This achieves three important goals.

Firstly, it means that lenders to dodgy banks will actually have to start doing underwriting, rather than simply relying on their security interest. That keeps everybody honest, and will give the system a heads-up when banks start getting into trouble.

Secondly, it means that wholesale lenders no longer have the ability to jump the queue when it comes to seniority. Banks should repay their depositors first, and then their senior unsecured creditors, and then their subordinated creditors, and then their preferred shareholders; whatever’s left over goes to common shareholders. But increasingly the pecking order has been upended by allowing banks to issue secured debt, which in practice ends up being senior even to depositors. In some countries, banks aren’t allowed to issue secured debt at all; this amendment doesn’t go that far, but at least it makes the debt a little bit riskier for the lender.

Thirdly, it means that banks will be forced to look at the big picture when it comes to their assets, rather than simply using them as collateral for cheap and dangerous short-term funding. Writes Stoll:

The provision make it harder and more expensive for banks to raise capital, and therefore, harder to get credit flowing again into the economy.

This is not entirely true. The provision makes it harder and more expensive for banks to raise secured capital — but as we’ve seen, there are lots of other funding sources available to banks. The more unpledged assets that a bank has, the easier it is for that bank to raise both unsecured debt and various forms of equity.

Conceptually, this is entirely what we want. If I have an asset worth $1 million, I can either borrow $900,000 against that asset and pay interest on the loan, or else I can sell off equity stakes in that asset for $1 million. I’m not sure why the former is a better idea than the latter, when we’re trying to deleverage the banks and move to a more equity-based (and less debt-based) world.

Does the Miller-Moore amendment make banks more liable to liquidity runs? Yes, but on the understanding that (a) they only become more vulnerable insofar as they’re reliant on the short-term repo markets, which is something we want to discourage; and (b) they have access to the Fed’s discount window anyway, so it’s not as though all secured funding sources can disappear overnight.

Why does Stoll love secured creditors so much? He says that “the rights of secured creditors took a beating in the Chrysler bankruptcy” — but that’s not true. They still had the right to provide DIP financing themselves (the role played by the government) or even to push Chrysler into liquidation. They sensibly didn’t exercise those rights, because doing so would have cost them an enormous amount of money compared to what they ended up getting. But the rights themselves were untouched.

The Miller-Moore amendment, by contrast, really does hit secured creditors. That’s a very good idea. Next up, let’s allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages, too.

Update: One more thought on this subject. Most secured funding for banks comes from the repo market, where banks borrow against securities they own. But what are banks doing holding so many securities in the first place? Shouldn’t their assets mainly be loans, which can’t be repoed?

COMMENT

It’s not even that bad. Secured creditors would lose nothing until shareholders and unsecured creditors had lost everything. So the haircut provision wouldn’t apply when a systemically significant financial firm teeters over into insolvency, it will only apply in spectacular, catastrophic collapses. Think of the Hindenberg.

It wouldn’t take a lot of underwriting to see something like that coming. The most likely candidates for the haircut would be existing creditors who demanded more and more collateral as the firm collapsed, jumping queue and exacerbating the liquidity crisis at the collapsing firm.

Also, the haircut would be discretionary. The FDIC could allow secured creditors who had taken collateral when the firm was solvent their full security interest, and just impose the haircut on creditors who had grabbed collateral from a firm that should already have been in receivorship.

I liked your calling the amendment a “spectaculary good idea” more than “not that bad,” but I’ll take it.

Posted by brad miller | Report as abusive

Counterparties

Felix Salmon
Nov 20, 2009 03:56 UTC

A classic 2002 Calvin Trillin piece on wine tasting — TNY

How TV works — YT

HFT “is happening because it’s just more cost effective to employ one programmer over dozens of expensive traders” — FT

Elizabeth Warren earns a six-figure salary from COP on top of what Harvard pays her — Bloomberg

Gotta love those ombudspeople. 800 words on whether it’s “Rahm” or “Mr Emanuel” — NPR

BusinessWeek staffer: Bloomberg “seems to be getting rid of voice” with columnist axings — NYT

Annals of famous Belgians: Hilarious Herman Van Rompuy profile — BBC

ACORN conspiracy theory datapoint of the day — TPM

I want a dedicated RSS feed for Heather Horn’s “Screed” columns — Atlantic Wire

Texas Accidentally Bans Straight Marriage — Newser

The Daily Mail news headline randomizer — Qwghlm

Cats for Gold

The semiotics of death penalty attire — WaPo

Simon Johnson’s testimony on TARP — Baseline Scenario

‘Too Big to Fail’ now $13.50, below cost — Amazon

Not generally a fan of listicles, but I like these Weird Error Messages — ZDnet

Jonathan Ford and Peter Thal Larsen on how to shrink the banks — Prospect

COMMENT

ACORN stole my lunch money!

Posted by kthomas | Report as abusive

Disclosing journalists’ pasts

Felix Salmon
Nov 19, 2009 20:00 UTC

Dear Henry,

I’m not annoyed by you! How could I be, when you call me the “king of financial bloggers” no fewer than four times in one piece? I think you’ve created a powerful, innovative, and disruptive franchise in The Business Insider, which employs some very smart people and publishes some great journalism — even if sometimes it’s neither checked nor correct. I’m entirely happy that you’re out there hiring people even as most publications are doing the opposite, and I wish you and your investors the very best of fortune.

My blog entry yesterday was not about you qua entrepeneur; I just thought that if you were going to get into the business of publishing earnings estimates for technology companies — exactly the business you were banned from by the SEC — then it might be worth mentioning the ban as you did so.

In fact, the blog entry wasn’t really about you at all, as you might have surmised from the picture at the top and the lead paragraph, which were all about Michael Whitney. Maybe you could answer my questions where Bloomberg’s Judith Czelusniak didn’t: do you think it was OK for Bloomberg to hire Whitney and not disclose his past? If not, would it have been OK for Bloomberg to hire Whitney if they had disclosed his past?

I suspect that the differences between us are not particularly great, and that we believe that while such episodes aren’t necessarily disqualifying when it comes to hiring journalists, they should definitely be treated transparently. At the margin, the necessity of disclosing such things might well lead media organizations to pick an experienced out-of-work journalist instead: that clearly doesn’t apply in your case, where you’re the hirer rather than the prospective employee.

You say that you’ve disclosed everything in great detail in the past — this is true, and in fact I linked to one such disclosure. I feel that the disclosure should be a permanent thing, easily available to new readers, especially when you start revisiting ground extremely similar to that which you trod as a securities analyst. It’s not a major difference.

I think we’d have a much more substantive disagreement if you defended Bloomberg’s failure to disclose Whitney’s past, or Thom Calandra’s failure to disclose his own past when selling his new newsletter; I look forward to reading your views on them. But as it is, I think you might be overreacting to my piece slightly.

Best,

Felix Salmon, KFB

COMMENT

If Bernie madoff started publishing a split strike newsletter people would be pissed…why aren’t they pissed about blodget?!?! Because people are dumb and have no memory.

Posted by Al Coholic | Report as abusive

The unbearable pain of 0.01%

Felix Salmon
Nov 19, 2009 19:08 UTC

Bill Gross isn’t earning much interest on his cash: in fact, he’s only earning 0.01%. Tell us, Bill, what’s an appropriate metaphor to explain how it feels to earn such a low interest rate?

My point is to recognize, and to hope that you recognize, that an effective zero percent interest rate, as a price for hiding in a foxhole, is prohibitive. Like the American doughboys near France’s Maginot line in WWII – slumping day after day in a muddy, rat-infested pit – when the battalion commander finally blew his whistle to charge the enemy lines, it probably was accompanied by some sense of relief; anything, anything but this! Anything but .01%!

I’m not sure this is entirely fair. Think of the camraderie in those muddy foxholes! Think of all those meaningful religious conversions! Frankly, earning 0.01% interest on your money-market funds is much worse than that!

Or, you know, it could be a sign of how incredibly short memories are. A year ago — even six months ago — people thought that losing 30% or 40% or 50% of your money constituted something extremely painful. Now, it seems, making a small amount of money is analogous to fighting in the bloodiest war of all time.

Kid Dynamite today translates Gross’s column into Sensible, explaining that opportunities paying say 5% annualized become a lot more attractive when rates are at zero than they are when you can get 5% just by investing in Treasury bills. Hence assets yielding anything at all — even stocks — have become pretty popular of late, accounting for the impressive price rise since March. Still, he concludes, “this can only end one way… badly”. People aren’t asking that yields compensate for risk any more, they’re just asking that they pay more than nothing. Which is probably not the smartest manner of allocating capital ever invented.

As for Gross, his best advice is to buy utility stocks:

Pricewise, they’re only halfway between their 2007 peaks and 2008 lows – 25% off the top, 25% from the bottom.

Is that the new Goldilocks Scenario, I wonder?

Update: The quote above — which mangles history in unspeakable ways, as many commenters noted — has been changed on the Pimco website, which now talks about “the American doughboys near France’s future Maginot line in WWI”.

COMMENT

“If I have accumulated $1 million for that purpose, at the 5% I came to expect as a minimum rate for safe fixed-income investments – far from what anyone would have ever said was the product of an “asset bubble,” I can generate $50,000 per year for as long as I live without depleting principal. Maybe I will have $70,000 total income combined with Social Security, which could be a reasonably comfortable retirement income.”@Urban Legend:If you think it is reasonable to get a 5% return on top of inflation without taking risk, I have some oceanfront property in Nevada to sell you. That may have been possible in the past, but we are in a new world now.Investing is not about loaning your funds out to a government, completely abdicating responsibility for finding meaningful uses for the capital and then expecting a substantial return above inflation. Our governments are nearly bankrupt.If you lend to a nearly bankrupt and profligate entity, you deserve to lose a lot of money. You are like a bartender serving a drunk who is drinking himself to death. You are not innocent. You are part of the problem, and your investments are making the world worse. You don’t deserve a good return for that.How to invest? If you really want risk fee, go for TIPs, but don’t expect much beyond inflation. Better yet, learn basics of business and investing and carefully loan out to local small businesses. Or be a landlord, watching your profit and dividends every month. Or invest in important and useful companies via the stockmarket. Or invest in making your house energy efficient. Or invest in your childrens’ and grandchildrens’ educations. Or donate it for research to invest in everyone’s future.Whine about the Fed if you want. Your treasury buys make all these games possible.

Posted by Dan | Report as abusive
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