Against the optimists

By Felix Salmon
January 27, 2010
countries are growing again, there must be grounds for optimism and the kind of yes-we-can thinking in which the World Economic Form has always specialized.

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One of the more annoying aspects of the Davos echo-chamber is the way in which people are constantly asking each other what “the mood” is this year; the result is an inchoate consensus that since the crisis is over, markets are up, and countries are growing again, there must be grounds for optimism and the kind of yes-we-can thinking in which the World Economic Form has always specialized.

I’m moving the other way, however, siding with the pessimists like Nouriel Roubini and Martin Wolf. They’re both convinced that the problems of southern Europe are both grave and intractable, although they differ in their prediction of what the consequences will be: Nouriel sees a good chance of the eurozone breaking up, while Martin sees the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) staying in the euro and ending up stuck in a long-term slump, able to neither cut interest rates nor devalue their currencies in an attempt to regain competitiveness. The only other option is an across-the-board cut in nominal wages, on the order of 30% or so. That’s something which is pretty much inconceivable, although Ireland seems to be trying to move in that direction.

Of course the one entity which will benefit from this is the Squid: Goldman Sachs seems to be taking the lead in trying to orchestrate a desperate and expensive sale of Greek debt to China. Expect more such desperate moves as the southern European macroeconomy continues to deteriorate; anybody who watched the world’s investment bankers swarming all over Domingo Cavallo in the final weeks of Argentina’s currency board will remember just how vulturish they can be in such situations.

My feeling is that the US poses at least as much of a risk to the global economy as southern Europe does. There’s a good chance that 2010 could be the year of walking away from underwater mortgages; there’s no sign of the private sector releveraging; and the government has clearly reached its limit in terms of the degree it can step in and borrow on behalf of the rest of us. If the attempt to prop up the still-overvalued housing market fails and there’s another downwards lurch, there will be a whole new wave of bank insolvencies and much less fiscal space to bail them out than there was pre-crisis. And the fact that most delegates here at Davos seem blissfully unconcerned about the possibility of a second nasty lurch downwards doesn’t reassure me in the slightest.

9 comments

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Count me among the pessimist crowd Felix. The financial world has a surreal feel that is hard to put your finger on at the moment, kinda dreamlike, where everything is OK because we think it is. How can this be when nothing has been done to fix the problem? Living today with tomorrow’s riches seemed like such an easy proposition not so long ago, but we quickly seem to be running out of tomorrows to borrow from. http://www.theendisalwaysnear.blogspot.c om/

Posted by nahummer | Report as abusive

I agree with the above commenter. I live in Florida and all this talk about how things are turning the corner, getting better, blah blah blah is like living in an alternate reality. Nobody I know is finding a job if they need one and no one is sleeping at night, afraid that they are next in line to be laid off. At 54 yrs old, I have never been so scared for my future as I am right now.

Posted by vachon | Report as abusive

“And the fact that most delegates here at Davos seem blissfully unconcerned about the possibility of a second nasty lurch downwards doesn’t reassure me in the slightest.” This may turn out to be quite prophetic and unfortunately I believe much sooner than not expected.

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