Comments on: Taleb vs Treasuries http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: roga http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11805 Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:48:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11805 http://2010.therussiaforum.com/news/sess ion-video3/comment-page-1/#comment-85

everyone should watch this panel… Can anyone figure out what the trade Hugh is talking about is?

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By: zerulian http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11801 Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:17:01 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11801 You miss Taleb’s point. There is a big difference between T-bills and the 10 year or further out on the curve. There is nothing inconsistent in these two statements by Taleb. Long term US yields are not the same as 90 day paper.

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By: DavidMerkel http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11799 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:50:03 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11799 Too many people are saying this trade is a no-brainer. The yield curve is very steep already.

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By: Bob_in_MA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11790 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 03:21:15 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11790 When I saw that at Bloomberg, it made me consider going long TLT, or even EDV.

Taleb knows how to get attention, but much of what he says is muddled. And his strategy is never made clear. He insists he makes small bets a very long odds. But the result he claims in 2008, ca. 100%, is just 2:1.

If, as he explains it, he accepts losing until the pay off of the black swan event, his performance was miserable. If he started his fund in 2003 and lost 10% each year til 2008, making 100% than would just bring him to even. Big freaking deal.

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By: framed http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11785 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 22:47:36 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11785 Why does anyone take anything that comes out of his mouth seriously? Based on his own reasoning, we shouldn’t:

“George Soros has 2 million times more statistical evidence that his results are not chance than Buffett does. Soros is vastly more robust. I am not saying Buffett doesn’t have skill—I’m just saying we don’t have enough evidence to say Buffett isn’t doing it by chance.”

And what about the robustness of the statistical evidence offered suggesting that Mr. Taleb’s investment performance is anything other than luck? As far as I can tell, there’s one big payoff surrounded by a sea of funds that have bled to death.

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By: Uncle_Billy http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11781 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 20:01:00 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11781 What’s the deal lately with Russia and “Russia Today,” the Russian-Government run english speaking television show?

First they put a Gawker writer on(introduced as “the editor of Gawker.com) to talk about Haiti, then they have Jagdesh Bhagwati on talking about god knows what?

Now they’ve got Taleb over there at a conference?

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By: OnTheTimes http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11780 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 19:45:30 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11780 Since treasury yields are about zero, they can only go up, which doesn’t require a lot of brains to see. What does require brains, or preferably a crystal ball, is knowing WHEN those interest rates will go up. Without a good idea of when that will happen, you could lose money shorting treasuries.

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By: ottorock http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-11778 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 19:28:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=2470#comment-11778 “It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries”
“Every single human being should have that trade.”

Errrr…Salmon, it’s good that you have the intellectual nous to cut’n’slice things etc etc, but this time you’re reading too much into it. That’s investment advice, believe me.

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