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The winner’s curse implies that Labour and the Lib Dems should allow a Tory minority government making huge spending cuts — Guardian
Cool Lilly Allen video — Field
“The euro stood at $1.2744, returning to levels seen before the rescue scheme was announced” — Reuters
I’m no great fan of Siegel. But this is an extremely lucid case for stocks — Kiplinger
Kinsley’s new column — Atlantic Wire
Cokie Roberts : Laura Bush :: ACA : John Paulson — Washington Examiner
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I can see why you are not a Siegel, he is comparing apples to oranges, assuming inflation (as oppossed to deflation) is the only risk, and ignoring risk adjusted returns.
the yield on a 10 year corp portfolio (and i have not done this in too much depth just blended 50% ig with 25% of hvol and hy) is very approx 5.8-6%, as opposed to govt yields at 3.7%
with high unemployment, declining house prices, taxes soon to rise, excess capacity, and at some point a withdrawal of transfer payments there is a considerable risk of deflation, please don’t give me the “we’re printing money, look out for Wiemar inflation” argument. inflation just transfers wealth for debtor to creditor
given the still potentially huge risks to the financial system, shocks and volatility can not be ruled out. possibly the higher place in the capital structure is compensation for the slight drop in yield.