Comments on: Pimco’s risk-filled global outlook http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: traduceri romana daneza http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-55065 Tue, 14 Oct 2014 10:54:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=3836#comment-55065 Everything is very open with a really clear clarification of the issues. It was truly informative. Your website is very helpful. Many thanks for sharing!

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By: Herschel Wehling http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-54461 Thu, 09 Oct 2014 19:01:27 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=3836#comment-54461 I and my guys ended up reading the excellent helpful tips located on your web site and then at once got a terrible suspicion I had not expressed respect to the blog owner for them. All the men appeared to be for that reason stimulated to learn them and now have really been enjoying them. Many thanks for indeed being indeed accommodating and then for settling on this kind of helpful guides most people are really eager to discover. My sincere apologies for not expressing gratitude to earlier.

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By: nose2066 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-14856 Sat, 15 May 2010 03:43:22 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=3836#comment-14856 There’s a lot of discussion of the role of government regulation in the PIMCO Outlook. After Enron went bankrupt, the Sarbanes-Oxley rules were put in place to prevent another Enron. I suspect that a number of CEO’s on Wall Street were probably in violation of those rules. There has been no mention of Sarbanes-Oxley by regulators, by government officials, or by the news media.

Which brings us to the idea that there can be a lot of rules and regulations in place, but they can be ineffective, or be ineffectively administered. In fact, the PIMCO document describes the future as: “a world with a flatter distribution of potential outcomes, fatter tails” – this implies more risk and widely variable outcomes – the exact opposite of what you would expect if government regulation were effective.

PIMCO thinks that “emerging economies will maintain their development breakout phase” even though PIMCO thinks that “concerns about the dark side of globalization tempers enthusiasm for its benefits”. So what happens if voters say: “we’ve had enough of this globalization thing”?

PIMCO thinks that Australia and Canada will be special beneficiaries of globalization (That means that Australia and Canada export raw materials to China). It’s probably worth remembering that the PIMCO guys are not infallible. There were a few times that they told us that they favored German bonds. Unless they hedged their currency exposure to the euro, that wouldn’t have worked out for them. Likewise they favored Canadian bonds in keeping with the globalization theme. The Canadian dollar is really a petro-dollar. It moves up and down with the price of oil. Again, with oil moving down, that wouldn’t have worked out unless PIMCO hedged the currency.

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By: willid3 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-14794 Fri, 14 May 2010 00:13:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=3836#comment-14794 I am thinking that the real problems are skill erosion as we have a lot of people who have been out of work for a long time, and we have gotten rid of so much work and never ever replaced it. the geographical problem was more tactical, yes some were stuck because of their houses, but jingle mail solved that, the bigger problem is the recession was almost nationwide, so there really was no place to go

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By: ClarkTroy http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/13/pimcos-risk-filled-global-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-14784 Thu, 13 May 2010 18:41:59 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=3836#comment-14784 Felix,

I wouldn’t be so sanguine about the geographical flexibility issue. A story in the Journal Tuesday (“Americans Moved in ’09, but Not Far”) indicated that people were moving at the lowest rate since 1948 (the lowest on record) last year and — when they did — it was within their home counties, presumably in with friends, family members, etc.

I think that skill erosion would be a less trivial risk had the lower end of the workforce not been so effectively deskilled and deracinated already.

Clark

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