Comments on: Adventures in probability, market forecasting edition

By: RobertArvanitis

RobertArvanitis — Sat, 25 Sep 2010 05:05:32 +0000

Let’s monetize that.
Send out say 20,480 newsletters.
Half predict the market will rise, half say it will fall.
Whichever way it goes, you will be correct to 10,240.
Repeat the process with that 10,240. To half you say “rise,” and to the other half you say “fall.”
Soon enough, there is a core of people for whom you have been right 10 times.
Announce a hedge fund.
Check laws on extradition before absconding.

By: ErnieD

ErnieD — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 02:41:46 +0000

Or you could save money and time and simply buy a trained parrot to get the same level of forecasting accuracy. See link for explanation: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/displ ay/web/2010/09/21/pm-dont-bet-on-economi c-forecasting/

By: CDN_finance

CDN_finance — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 23:40:18 +0000

*vuvuzelas*