Comments on: Fat tail of the day, oil edition http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: traducere romana daneza http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-53407 Mon, 29 Sep 2014 13:53:53 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-53407 easy, restrained and stylish

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By: Beezer http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26361 Sat, 07 May 2011 20:02:16 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26361 The margin requirements were raised, and speculators push leverage to the limit. They had to cover and cover fast.

This is the definition of speculation and in our current overly financialized world it happens far often than Gaussian math can accomodate. The earlier comment about Mandelbrotian math being more accurate is correct.

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By: TFF http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26348 Fri, 06 May 2011 23:58:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26348 I was commenting on this move myself. No rhyme or reason, no news, nothing changed. Except suddenly the trading price of oil dropped by ten dollars a barrel.

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By: xyz70 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26318 Fri, 06 May 2011 04:15:03 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26318 Eliminate the mortgage deduction, raise the retirement age for Medicaid and social security and institute an effective transactions tax.

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By: djiddish98 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26307 Fri, 06 May 2011 00:06:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26307 Chart link fail

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_ chart.aspx?time=48

Just tick the crude box

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By: djiddish98 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26306 Fri, 06 May 2011 00:03:09 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26306 Does anyone know why retail gas prices are higher than 2008 levels when crude was ~115?

http://www.GasBuddy.com/gb_retail_price_ chart.aspx?city1=USA Average&city2=&city3=&crude=y&tme=48&uni ts=us

The graph is tough to pin down, but looking at the data point on 4/19, it seems as if gas was around $3.60 national average with crude trading around ~115.

Why the 8% increase in retail?

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By: nedofbaker http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26304 Thu, 05 May 2011 23:42:49 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26304 Felix,

I apologize that I only comment when I have a complaint because, honest, I enjoy reading your stuff!

But I second 3oosion above… Mandelbrot observed that financials don’t follow a normal/gaussian distribution. That was a few decades ago. I really don’t understand why otherwise sophisticated financial commentators forget this all the time.

And, really, going after speculators?

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By: jmh530 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26299 Thu, 05 May 2011 22:05:20 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26299 On a one day horizon, the mean of most financial securities is close enough to zero that it won’t matter much.

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By: david3 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26292 Thu, 05 May 2011 20:21:46 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26292 You are missing the mean in your std dev calculation. It was more than a 5.4 std dev movement.

This t-shirt should clear up your confusion.

http://rlv.zcache.com/standard_deviation _root_mean_square_of_values_tshirt-p2358 11735824455090trlf_400.jpg

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By: GRRR http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/05/05/fat-tail-of-the-day-oil-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-26291 Thu, 05 May 2011 20:14:50 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=8148#comment-26291 Blame the quants and their equations.

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