Comments on: The IMF oddsmakers

By: Sicklyafrican

Sicklyafrican — Thu, 19 May 2011 18:07:13 +0000

@RS108 I disagree completely with your assessment of Manuel, he successfully managed to balance many different forces (labour unions, leftist pressure, big business etc etc) while Finance minister of SA and the country implemented some very tough economic reforms that ensured lower inflation and smaller budgets in SA. Maybe he’d habe the attitude and balls to actually stop bailing out every single Euro nation that can’t keep their spending in check. Ask yourself this question, would Mexico or Brazil have received such “wonderful” loans as Greece has? No – clearly the wonderfully qualified heads of the IMF have not used their “fantastic” degrees properly.

By: GregHao

GregHao — Thu, 19 May 2011 11:32:52 +0000

I know that David Cameron hates Gordon Brown (while Brown himself has basically campaigned for the position) but can there be a case made for Brown as the head of the IMF? That is to say, domestic politics aside (ha!), is Brown a valid candidate?

By: S_2

S_2 — Thu, 19 May 2011 10:44:33 +0000

William Hill lists Lagarde now at 6/4, Paddy Power at 4/5 ( http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-be tting/current-affairs/imf-betting/Next-I MF-chief-2682647.html ). But both differ significantly on Montek Singh Ahluwalia (5/1 vs. 33/1) and other Asian candidates.

By: RS108

RS108 — Thu, 19 May 2011 09:19:40 +0000

Trevor Manuel would be a purely political choice. He has no training in economics and has a trade school qualification.

He was no university degree, let alone advanced degrees. He was ‘finance minister’ but all he did was to rely on the advice of consultants. The head positions in SA are all about race and little about meritocracy. This is the sought of influence peddling that South Africa is now renowned for. Making Trevor Manuel even the Deputy of the IMF would be an insult to the very concept of merit based appointments.

By: FelixSalmon

FelixSalmon — Thu, 19 May 2011 05:03:29 +0000

TomLindmark, it’s not me, it’s the IMF. You have to be 65 or younger to get the job. They’d have to change the rules to appoint M Singh Ahluwalia, or Stan Fischer.

By: Christofurio

Christofurio — Thu, 19 May 2011 00:40:38 +0000

I think you have to give Montek Singh Ahluwalia better odds than you do — he is on the list because of a widespread feeling that it is time for an east Asian to head the IMF, and he is for various reasons more plausible than any of the others on the list who might benefit from the same idea.

By: TomLindmark

TomLindmark — Thu, 19 May 2011 00:18:40 +0000

Pray tell why you consider 67 as too old for the job.

By: rjs0

rjs0 — Wed, 18 May 2011 23:20:28 +0000

amartya sen

By: S_2

S_2 — Wed, 18 May 2011 23:16:05 +0000

Gordon Brown – UK: opposition at home
John Lipsky – USA: out because of US world bank president Zoellick
Axel Weber – Germany: resigned from German Bundesbank, likely because of different opinions with the government, so also opposition at home
Christine Lagarde – France: faces an inquiry at home ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-1 3347659 ) and French hold the job very often, hard to sell to non G7 countries
Mark Carney – Canada: unlikely as Canada is linked very strong to the USA

Peer Steinbruck – Germany: wants to run for chancellor in 2013, faces opposition in own party, but has public support; government will consider supporting him to get rid of him (as he is in the opposition party SPD)

Kemal Dervis – Turkey: Looks like a good bet regarding his experience in international financial organizations

Hildebrand would be a workable compromise.

By: kmbutler

kmbutler — Wed, 18 May 2011 21:18:14 +0000

Felix, what about Tharman Shanmugaratnam? You didn’t mention why he wouldn’t be a good candidate, but his odds are fairly good. I don’t know anything about him.

By: Felix Salmon

Felix Salmon — Wed, 18 May 2011 21:04:00 +0000

Thank you Matt!

By: mattclarkdotnet

mattclarkdotnet — Wed, 18 May 2011 20:45:47 +0000

Apparently the comedy £25 limit is because it’s a market especially susceptible to ‘inside information’. And no, the nice man on the phone couldn’t keep a straight face when he said it.

So I made the best of a bad job and popped £25 each on Philipp HIldebrand and Trevor Manuel for you as well.

By: mattclarkdotnet

mattclarkdotnet — Wed, 18 May 2011 20:27:43 +0000

She’s shortened to 10-1 I’m afraid, but I still tried to put down £100 for you. Unfortunately William Hills are lightweights and wouldn’t let me stake more than £25 online, so that will have to do for now.

They’re offering:

5/2 Kemal Dervis – Turkey
5/1 Montek Singh Ahluwalia – India
7/1 Axel Weber – Germany
8/1 Tharman Shanmugaratnam – Singapore
8/1 Gordon Brown – UK
10/1 John Lipsky – USA
10/1 Mark Carney – Canada
10/1 Christine Lagarde – France
12/1 Philipp Hildebrand – Switzerland
12/1 Peer Steinbruck – Germany
16/1 Stanley Fischer – Israel
16/1 Changyong Rhee – South Korea
16/1 Hyun Song Shin – South Korea
16/1 Trevor Manuel – South Africa
20/1 Mohamed El-Erian – Egypt
25/1 Agustin Carstens – Mexico