Comments on: Esther Dyson’s hopes for Russia http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: traduceri daneza http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-53763 Mon, 29 Sep 2014 14:06:09 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-53763 Excellent post. I was checking continuously this blog and I am impressed! Extremely useful info specially the last part I care for such information much. I was seeking this particular information for a very long time. Thank you and best of luck.

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By: verdigreen http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35388 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 17:04:26 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35388 Russian Total Fertility Rate has been steadily growing (from 1.16 in 1999 to 1.54 in 2009, even higher now) and mortality falling (life expectancy at birth went up from a rock bottom of ca. 65 years in early 2000es to estimated 70.3 years in 2011). Correspondingly, natural decline went from about 6.5 ppm in early 2000es to likely 1 ppm in 2011. Even with grossly under-counted migration, the population was essentially stable in the last three years. Latest Census (2010) found about 1 million more people in the country than expected (0.7% of expected population), in contrast to Latvia where Census discovered 158 thousand missing (7% of expected number). It is much more likely than not that in the next decade to population will be either stagnant or increase marginally.

While upwards of 1.54 TFR is much lower than replacement rates, in Europe this number is beaten only by Scandinavian countries, Netherlands, Belgium, UK, France, Ireland, couple of Baltic countries, and Serbia. The rest of Europe has it worse.

So, the demographic trends are unambiguously positive, unlike in many other places. On immigration – whatever the way local population looks at it, this is fact of life. Immigration-related tensions are causing the rise of right wing parties across the whole of Europe, which makes Russia not exceptional at all. A normal (and improving) country.

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By: SelenesMom http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35350 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:03:39 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35350 I’d like to see some drilldown into the Russian mortality rate as well. I thought that lifespans were mostly held down by heavy smoking, heavy drinking, crap in the environment (pollution, poor standards of food safety, Chernobyl etc. etc.) and lack of disposables in most people’s medical care. This could be out of date — has progress been made on any of these fronts, or is it likely?

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By: johnhhaskell http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35340 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:39:58 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35340 There is definitely undercounting of “recent immigrants,” you will see them at just about any building site or meat packing plant in European Russia.

They are not here legally, which is why they aren’t counted. We can use Uzbek and Tajik immigration to argue that Russia is not facing a demographic problem, but we would be looking at the problem in a manner which is, let’s say, very different from the way the Russians look at it.

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By: malcolmgladwell http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35339 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:53:42 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35339 In answer to your questions, yes and yes–although I would describe my book as a thoughtful book on not thinking. :-) On the second, 1.54 is also not unusually low if you consider that as recently as 1999 it was 1.16. And if you also consider that there is probably undercounting of recent immigrants with substantially higher birth rates.

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By: johnhhaskell http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35337 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 06:13:31 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35337 @ Felix – I assure you with 100% certainty that Mikhail Prokhorov’s bid for the Presidency will fail. He was selected for a reason, the reason being his demonstrated inability to manage even the tiny “Union of Right Forces” which collapsed in acrimony last summer.

@ Matthew Saroff- the RTS trades at a p/e of 5. Is that usually the price earnings multiple that you find in a theme that is “played out”?

@MalcolmGladwell- is that the real Malcolm Gladwell who wrote a book about not thinking? The World Bank puts Russia’s fertility per woman at 1.54. I guess that’s not “unusually low” because a lot of European countries have fertility rates below replacement?

@DCWright both the Bolotnaya and Sakharova protests were organized on Facebook. No firearms were present at either event BTW

@Realist50 Does Russia censor the Internet? Okay then. Why are you here

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By: realist50 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35336 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 02:50:36 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35336 I remember similar theories about China 10 or 15 year ago, that the Internet would doom Chinese censorship and then authoritarianism would inevitably be swept aside. Certainly not happening as quickly or inevitably as the techno-optimists thought.

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By: DCWright http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35335 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 02:31:15 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35335 Word to Dollared.

Russia has produced fantastic, wire-and-duct-tape engineers since early soviet times, and it never did much to produce a civil society. If anything, engineers tend to be susceptible to technocratic, top-down, command-and-control ideas of societal optimization.

I have no doubt that, when the next Russian revolution comes, the revolutionaries will use social media. They will also use telephones, printing presses, and probably guns. But that doesn’t mean that social media are culturally transformative in the way the techno-utopians like Dyson seem to imagine.

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By: Dollared http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35333 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:04:37 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35333 I’m a bit tired of the technology folks describing their economy and culture as the one-size-fits-all-solution to all problems.

It hasn’t exactly made California heaven for everyone but the golden few who either 1) held equity or 2) held real estate.

And no, high tech does not lead to greater “freedom.” It just makes young white guys overconfident about the future before they are riffed at age 42 and replaced by low cost Asian workers.

But there is never a shortage of Esther Dysons suggesting that Russia, or Singapore, or Seattle, or Sheffield, adopt the “Silicon Valley Model.” And then they get back on their planes and head back to their weekend places in Half Moon Bay….

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By: malcolmgladwell http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/01/25/esther-dysons-hopes-for-russia/comment-page-1/#comment-35332 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 23:53:38 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12020#comment-35332 You should look again at the Russian population numbers, Felix, since the country’s demographic situation seems to have improved in recent years. Russia had a real population increase in 2009–independent of immigration. And there are some experts who think that the actual immigration numbers are far higher–maybe three or four or five times higher–than the official numbers. One more thing. A population crisis caused by an unusually high mortality rate (Russia’s problem) is a lot easier to fix than a population crisis caused by an unusually low fertility rate (not Russia’s problem). Russia isn’t Japan–which has the opposite issue.

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