The employment recovery is real

By Felix Salmon
March 9, 2012
payrolls number -- and it's another solid report.

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I can’t remember the last time there was this much excitement and anticipation surrounding a payrolls number — and it’s another solid report. There were 227,000 new jobs created in March, and the already-excellent numbers from the previous two months being revised upwards: the figure for last month is now officially 284,000, a truly excellent number.

The really good news here is that this isn’t even really good news, at least from a market perspective. For a while there, the recent spate of upbeat jobs reports only served to raise worries that the other shoe would soon drop and we’d run into big downward revisions or monthly mean-reversion. Increasingly, however, this is looking like a real trend: the recovery in the American jobs market is going as well as anybody could reasonably expect. It’s still not enough to get the unemployment rate down to an acceptable level in the near term, of course: there’s still a jobs crisis in this country. But we’re moving in the right direction.

At this point, if we have a weak month between now and the election, it’s going to be the bad figure which looks like an aberration: only a sequence of two or three consecutive weak payrolls reports will really convince economists and the market that the recovery is going off the rails. It’s taken far too long to get here, but we’re finally moving in exactly the right direction, at an eminently healthy clip. Or, to put it another way: you can start breathing easier again, come the first Friday of the month. All those good job numbers were real, after all. And maybe next month the pundits won’t be on quite as many tenterhooks as they were this time around.

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8 comments so far

I think you mean February. Though 227,000 jobs in just this part of March would be awesome.

Posted by ryanlouiscooper | Report as abusive

First, it is the jobs report for FEBRUARY not March. Second, if the economy is “improving” why were durable goods orders down 4.5% (same as 1/09) and why is every investment house lowering their GDP estimates. Don’t be surprised if you see some negative numbers in the near future!

Posted by ccclj | Report as abusive

What a load of BULLHONKEY! The numbers are only an estimate – nearly always revised a few to several months down the road. Very often downward. In addition, WHAT KIND of jobs were created??? When you consider temporary and low-paying (burger-flipper) and contract positions, this report is WEAK! Get a clue and stop being a cheerleader for the Administration. News types shouldn’t be cheerleaders for ANY administration, whether Republican or Democrat.

Posted by NukerDoggie | Report as abusive

I see the US goverment and this idiot are trying to sell another bridge to the masses

Posted by thefacto | Report as abusive

If I want to go to the moon, I find the best space scientists and engineers to help me get there;
If I want to improve my health, I find the best doctors to guide me and help me with diet plans, etc;
If I want to learn about finance – hey STFU you stupid a$$hole govt shill.

I hope the above commentors think about this; it’s not about bowing down, it’s accepting there is a world outside your little bubble.

Posted by CDN_Rebel | Report as abusive

@ccclj, isn’t employment supposed to be a lagging indicator?

Posted by TFF | Report as abusive

I guess Fox News threw these guys on this post here out.
Oh, I forgot, Fox News doesn’t even give you a “Post Your Comment’ option. Strange..!!!

Posted by GMavros | Report as abusive

I think employment nowadays are more and more server. It’s a serious problem that goverment should pay much more attention to and take some measures to solve the problem. I am happy to hear of the news.http://www.karenmillendressfactory. com

Posted by feitian | Report as abusive
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