Comments on: Did the market know about Apple’s announcement? http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: EllieK http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37077 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 21:31:27 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37077 KenG_CA has a valid point, about actual ability to realize the full potential of wireless.

Regardless, I was just ruminating on Apple’s decision. Both parts: The dividend ($40bil? $45bil?) and the share buyback ($10 or $15bil? I’ve seen different breakouts). I couldn’t find any recent history of Apple stock repurchases. Given the company’s inclination to hold on to cash after the bad times in 1995, I suppose that’s consistent. There are various reasons to do a share buyback. Poor stock price performance clearly isn’t one of them for Apple! Is there any significance to this decision, the share buyback now?

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By: KenG_CA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37067 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 18:50:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37067 winstongator, VZ and ATT both believe that wireless can replace wireline, but that’s wishful thinking on their part, because they can charge more for it. However, wireless is a shared medium, unlike fiber and DSL, which is switched and can support far more concurrent users. I am seeing 19 Mbps on my LTE connection right now, but that’s because hardly anybody in my neighborhood is using it at the same time. If everyone around here was depending on LTE for all of their internet activity, the speed that each individual user would see would drop to low DSL rates (1 Mbps, if they’re lucky).

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By: Strych09 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37066 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 18:38:34 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37066 I’m with TFF on this one. The old adage “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” seems to apply in this case.

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By: winstongator http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37065 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 18:28:45 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37065 Today’s data plans are 2GB/mo. People pay a lot of money for home high-speed internet and cable access. VZ will look at the iPad as a way to break into that without running fiber to people’s homes. As the 4G network expands, and 5G networks come on-line there will be more and more data going over cell networks. A huge amount will be video. This is a potential long-term market trend, not what I’m planning on doing tomorrow.

AAPL’s current market share, if it is accurate, implies a lot of future profit, much of which will come from new products.

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By: FifthDecade http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37056 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 14:51:25 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37056 For heaven’s sake Felix, didn’t they teach you percentages at school? That rise, expressed as a percentage, is nothing like as big as you write. I realise you are attempting to be sensationalist, but sensationalism isn’t why I read your column – I come because you had a history of factual writing and sensible analysis. Sad to see this eroding.

The launch of the iPad 3 wasn’t the only thing in the ether recently – there is a persistent rumour that Apple are working on an actual TV, not just the current set top box equivalent. Clearly markets are looking at the size of the current TV market and working out that if Apple does to that what it did to the mobile phone, music and tablet markets sales would increase exponentially and it would not be sector bound into being a mature market player.

There is also the info out there that the new MacBook Pros are going to be as thin as the MacBook Air which so recently experienced a sales explosion.

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By: KenG_CA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37055 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 14:36:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37055 winstongator, I hope you’r enot expecting to watch a lot of TV streamed over that LTE connection. It’s $30 for the first 2 GB. That might last 2 or 3 movies, at most, at the resolution of the new ipad. After that, it will be cheaper to go to the theatre.

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By: Biscayne http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37052 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 14:16:36 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37052 If it was so obvious that Apple was on the way up,did any one of you throw all they have at it?

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By: KenG_CA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37051 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 13:32:23 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37051 If you follow the price of Apple’s stock, you would notice that it usually goes up in anticipation of the release of a new product, and then drops once the product comes out. They had record pre-orders for the new ipad, and that probably had more of an impact on the share price than any rumors of a dividend or share re-purchase.

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By: TFF http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37049 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 13:16:01 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37049 Talk of an Apple dividend has been going on for months now, with hints dropped here and there by Cook. Was anybody surprised by this announcement? Either the fact or the amount?

Markets are inherently forward-looking. By the time something is announced, the price action is already past.

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/03/19/did-the-market-know-about-apples-announcement/comment-page-1/#comment-37047 Mon, 19 Mar 2012 13:07:18 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=12514#comment-37047 Mr. Salmon, one doubts there is even one person who will read your column who will be so foolish as to assert that there isn’t a ton of trading on inside information on Wall Street. So, what else is new? – this:

You may have selected the one example where the pre-announcement price movement isn’t inconsistent at all with the longer-term trend.

On your chart, nothing in the most recent price action is out-of-line with the trend going back 4-5 months. The issue has been in a steep climb for at least that long. Even if there was “inside information” in a technical sense recently floating around, that information was certainly not material to market participants – who long ago commenced to “get there first”.

Sometimes the market actually understands things better and sooner than the insiders do – even about their own companies. As you put it, “the announcement” was being priced in long before the Apple board ever considered making such an announcement.

(As an aside, IMO the $100-billion of cash in the bank – and the prospect of more to come – explains the price action much better than any dividend announcement does. Dividends or not, Apple Inc. is just a tremendous moneymaking machine, and that is no surprise. The surprise will come when that ends.)

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