Comments on: Will Grexit topple Obama? http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: traducator daneza http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-53633 Mon, 29 Sep 2014 14:01:33 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-53633 I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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By: mythdesysiphus http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39621 Tue, 29 May 2012 22:31:28 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39621 To Christofurio:

Between the 1929 stock market crash and the 1932 election there was a small matter intervening, called the Great Depression. It is not controversial to say that the crash was not its cause, but rather a symptom of the developing broad economic collapse. More to the point of my post, Hoover received a very strong challenge from Coolidge and Blaine and his candidacy was heavily bruised going into the ballot.

In 2008, the market went into bear territory a good 6 months before McCain’s bounce, nor was he the sitting president.

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By: klhoughton http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39601 Tue, 29 May 2012 14:32:56 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39601 Working from AdrianBunk’s reasoning above, but running the “pessimistic” version, assume the Greek election on 17 June goes as it should, with the Greek people saying “no.”

Grant that it is impossible logistically for Greece to exit the Euro by November, but rather that the probability that they will exit in the near term goes up.

But that probability has been approaching 100% for many months: certainly since the second austerity round, in which it became clear that Greece would have to sell off its revenue-producing assets at fire sale prices to get through the (rather long) short-term liquidity problem.

As soon as “clearly illiquid” became “likely insolvent,” the game was over, and everyone who matters from a financial markets perspective knew it. (Look at the cash flows of the HNW Greeks.)

Greece leaving the Euro won’t be a non-event, but it’s not going to cause a European recession. (Germany is quite capable of doing that themselves, with a bit of help from the Brits.) Let us not confuse which is cause and which is effect.

A Greek exit–and, more importantly, a Greek exit plan–would be an indication that Europe in general and the EU in particular sees a way out of their fiscal crisis.

It won’t save Obama–see GHWB in 1992, though without his predecessor’s clear Desire to Do Other Things–but an exit plan that looks as if the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t owned by SNCF or Deutche Bahn would be a positive prospect.

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By: GMavros http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39578 Tue, 29 May 2012 05:33:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39578 People actually read this ???

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By: PseudoTurtle http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39571 Mon, 28 May 2012 13:35:31 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39571 You should have stopped with “I’m no expert when it comes to assigning probabilities to events” and let it go at that.

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By: http http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39553 Mon, 28 May 2012 00:33:56 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39553 The math you use seems like it might be sort of irrelevant. The problem as I see it is the likelihood that financial markets have not accurately priced in the risk of a breakup of the eurozone. If Greece exits, this mispricing will become apparent. Lehman Brothers wasn’t deemed to be able to truly damage the US economy, but financial markets had something different to say when it was actually allowed to fail. We have been extending and pretending and mark to unicorn-ing for so long… God knows what will happen.

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39549 Sun, 27 May 2012 05:19:52 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39549 @Everybody –

‘While (Felix) the cat is (holidaying) away, …’ – why not stage a micro-coup d’etat today?

Does anybody (besides me) have any lingering thoughts about this piece? – http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/20 12/05/22/how-gawker-wants-to-monetize-co mments/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tw itter&dlvrit=60132

Here are the relevant high-points of it –

“at most other popular sites, the number of people reading the comments is vastly greater than the number of people writing them. But the way they’re presented, they’re not easy to read, …

“the fact is that even though there are many more readers than there are commenters, there are also many more commenters than there are posters. And collectively, those commenters are faster and funnier and more knowledgeable than the staff of any website….

“forums have been around on the internet since the 90s, and no one’s managed to reinvent them yet….

“editorial product is very much moving towards comments and away from posts, … Expect … blog posts to get shorter, in future, and sometimes just be a headline, at least in the first instance, so that the conversation can get going before a pretty post can be put together.”

And KenG adds this – “Speaking of comment systems, can you guys update the one Reuters uses? It’s kind of outdated, ya know.”

With you there, Ken – the archive system is archaic, and not having any search or edit functions at all is a pain. Which raises the question – what’s the right direction for this blog to go?

I sort of like the idea of going semi-forum format, as Felix describes the trend, but the big question is – will Felix be the only one who writes OPs? I kinda hope so on one level. Having seen what happens to formerly intelligent sites that grow in membership (like INTJf) – the quality level suffers a fatal dilution. So, bells and whistles and the ability to write OPs to attract more commenters – I hope not. Felix is half of what makes this blog special, but the character/quality of the commenters is the other (fragile) half.

How to make it better without jeopardizing what makes it special? IDK. You?

How to make money from it? That’s Reuter’s problem.

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39546 Sun, 27 May 2012 03:20:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39546 @Curmudg –

Well, .. um.. yeah – but it’s a Friday piece ahead of a long weekend, so, just about anything ….

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By: Christofurio http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39545 Sun, 27 May 2012 01:58:14 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39545 “First of all, there is no precedent for an American presidential election being swung by a stock-market drop.”

It seems to me likely the 1932 election was rather strongly influenced, maybe even swung, by the stock market drop 3 years before.

And what about the 2008 election? Before the bottom fell ut of the stock market, McCain was enjoying a nice post-convention bounce, he and his mavericky VP choice seemed all the rage, lipstick on the pitbull and all.

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By: mythdesysiphus http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/05/25/will-grexit-topple-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-39541 Sat, 26 May 2012 21:59:30 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=14443#comment-39541 This is a very nice exercise in probability tree modeling, but it makes some assumptions not borne out by empirical evidence. First of all, there is no precedent for an American presidential election being swung by a stock-market drop. More importantly, at least in the modern era, a sitting president has never been toppled because of economic factors alone. For that to happen a strong opposition from the incumbent’s own side had always been necessary. Historically speaking, the president’s reelection seems a fairly safe bet.

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