Comments on: Barack Obama and the limitations of probabilistic decision making http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: Dietzamerk http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42882 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 02:41:47 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42882 KenG…I agree with you on the commenting system…no clue whether my initial response will get posted 5 times or not at all, but my point was that Obama was in no way handcuffed when he started, he was filibuster-free for his first two years. How do you explain your comment that they put limitations on him?

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By: Dietzamerk http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42881 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 02:35:56 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42881 KenG…he had 2 years that were filibuster free. He didnt start with handcuffs, he started with clear blue water, both the senate and the house…and it was all up to him to manage. And he didnt.

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By: Dietzamerk http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42880 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 02:30:56 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42880 KenG…he had 2 years that were filibuster free. He didnt start with handcuffs, he started with clear blue water, both the senate and the house…and it was all up to him to manage. And he didnt.

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By: Dietzamerk http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42879 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 02:29:45 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42879 KenG…he had 2 years that were filibuster free. He didnt start with handcuffs, he started with clear blue water, both the senate and the house…and it was all up to him to manage. And he didnt.

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By: Dietzamerk http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42878 Fri, 07 Sep 2012 02:29:34 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42878 KenG…he had 2 years that were filibuster free. He didnt start with handcuffs, he started with clear blue water, both the senate and the house…and it was all up to him to manage. And he didnt.

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By: thispaceforsale http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42859 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 16:24:20 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42859 I’m pretty sure the White House was aware of the Constitutional authority risk that the individual mandate represents when they were crafting the ACA. Certainly in the winter of ’10, the internet had quite a few discussions on the topic prior to passage.
I think part of the limits of probability based decisions is that 99% of all decisions Obama is going to make, a large portion of the GOP will go crazy about. Independent of whether they said or supported something identical up to that very minute. It’s also difficult to assign probability when the referees (the media) have a bias to present both sides of every issue, even for those issues where one side is fraudulent and/or inane.

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By: KenG_CA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42857 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 15:44:08 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42857 Curmudgeon, Obama never really had control of either house, both were limited by conservative Democrats who often split with their party. The Democrats had no Tom DeLay to keep everyone in line, and as a result, many (especially newly elected house members) forgot Obama brought them to the party, and abandoned him (they paid the price in 2010). Also, Edward Kennedy died in 2009, leaving the senate with only 59 democrats for most of that first two years. It takes 60 votes to stop a filibuster, and not only did they rarely get 60 votes, they couldn’t even get Democratic senators to step up and force the filibusters – they basically caved at the threat of a filibuster.

Neither Pelosi nor Reid had control of their chamber, and they were more to blame for the lack of legislative success than Obama. Also, when he could get 60 votes in the senate, he had to make deals with people on both sides, which totally distorted his original goals (I don’t believe the health care plan that passed was anywhere near what he originally wanted).

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By: Tseko http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42852 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 11:40:39 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42852 Life is not black and white, buddy. If it is to you, get some sunglasses and enjoy the day. As for Larry Summers, I think he got kicked out.

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42848 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 06:05:48 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42848 Love this piece – vintage FS it is. The few comments visible don’t quite do justice to the OP.

Bob Rubin earned his spurs as an ‘arb’, a line of trade where hundreds of individual transactions make ‘probability theory’ exquisitely applicable, much as it is in a biz like life insurance. (‘Inside info’ works even better – Rubin’s GS protégé was feloniously good at that too.) Larry Summers never earned his spurs as anything other than an academic/bureaucrat – gotta wonder if he ever got the drift of what Rubin was talking about. Obama has no spurs; not an exaggeration to say The Presidency is the first full-time gig he’s had in his entire life. He’s in so far over his head that light barely penetrates to that depth – why expect anything from him at all, except self-promotion? He’s good at that.

Playing the odds makes sense on The Street and at the track or at the dice table, where risk can be controlled by limiting the wagers, and be distributed over many chance-events. In ‘one-off’ public policy matters, something different is required. Rubin probably gets that; who knows about Summers? Obama ….

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/09/05/barack-obama-and-the-limitations-of-probabilistic-decision-making/comment-page-1/#comment-42846 Thu, 06 Sep 2012 03:47:30 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=17267#comment-42846 Love this piece – vintage FS it is; cryin’ shame the 6-of-11 comments I can see don’t – as a group – quite rise to the level of the post; not really surprising though, is it?

Bob Rubin earned his spurs as an ‘arb’, a trade where hundreds of individual transactions make ‘probability theory’ exquisitely applicable, much as it is in a biz like life insurance. (‘Inside info’ works even better – Rubin’s GS crew was good at that too.) Larry Summers never earned his spurs as anything other than an academic/bureaucrat – gotta wonder if he ever got the drift of what Rubin was talking about. Obama has no spurs; not an exaggeration to say The Presidency is the first full-time gig he’s had in his entire life. He’s in so far over his head that light barely penetrates to that depth – why expect anything from him at all, except self-promotion? He’s good at that.

Playing the odds makes sense on The Street and at the track or at the dice table, where risk can be controlled by limiting the wager, and be distributed over many chance-events. In ‘one-off’ public policy matters, something different is required. Rubin probably gets that; who knows about Summers? Obama ….

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