Comments on: How I lost my Groupon bet http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: Flipkart coupons http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-55815 Wed, 22 Oct 2014 13:12:25 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-55815 A has become the most desirable web page Concerning possible visitied. the details are basically , ideal.

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By: QCIC http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-44530 Mon, 12 Nov 2012 16:25:01 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-44530 It was pretty clear Groupon was going nowhere from before the IPO. It is not a business model that makes any sense in the long run.

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By: dsquared http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-44514 Mon, 12 Nov 2012 07:25:47 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-44514 Actually one more thing – what really caught you here was lack of stop loss discipline. You should have offered to buy him a sandwich when the trade moved 10% against you ;-)

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By: dsquared http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-44513 Mon, 12 Nov 2012 07:21:57 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-44513 no mate, equities are often really quite predictable and this one in particular was a predictably awful call to make. I actually have to start the numbering below zero here so that my 1-3 will match up to yours:

-1) like hell do those results not look gruesome – the revenue has flatlined.

0) If you have a supposed “growth” company that ain’t growing sequentially for two consecutive reporting periods, then this is not a minor tweak to the DCF – it’s a totally broken investment thesis.

1) Volatility hurts higher-beta companies a lot more than low-beta ones. And given the disastrous performance of the IPO, this one was never going to suddenly go up a lot in a bear market

2) This is basically you betting ideology against reality; post-2000 we can all agree that the IPO valuations of technology companies with restricted free floats are not efficient prices. The restricted free float is very important here – if anyone had ever tried to float the whole of Groupon it would never have got that “market capitalisation” in the first place.

3) Priceline has earnings, and could probably pay a dividend if it wanted to. It was never going to fall as far or as fast as Groupon, so there really wasn’t a winning draw this way.

I think what this proves is that as you say, stocks are different from bonds (although actually I suspect that you could have constructed a similar bet on the credit and got similarly hosed).

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By: ytwod3621 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-44510 Sun, 11 Nov 2012 16:23:45 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-44510 So Salmon just proved he can’t pick stocks – this is news?

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By: TFF http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/11/09/how-i-lost-my-groupon-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-44509 Sun, 11 Nov 2012 15:48:50 +0000 https://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19401#comment-44509 @Chris08, well put.

The greater problem with Groupon is that there has never been a clear path to profitability. The business model gives too much away to the consumer, leaving too little for the merchant and Groupon to split profitably.

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