Comments on: The employment emergency is over http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: traduceri romana daneza http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-53447 Mon, 29 Sep 2014 13:55:15 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-53447 stylish, easy and restrained

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By: AZreb http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45093 Sun, 09 Dec 2012 12:10:37 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45093 Please, sir – send me a pair of the rose-colored glasses you are wearing. The ACTUAL unemployment rate when factoring in the under-employed and those who have stopped looking for work is about 14%.

Recovery? Most of the jobs now touted are part-time or temporary or seasonal, minimum wage with no benefits. The employment always is greater during the holidary season when stores need more employees – TEMPORARY employees who will not be kept on after the holidays.

It is a “wait and see” time – when you wait and see what the numbers will be in January, February and March. Plus, more companies are cutting hours for employees – even Walmart is doing this. Not pessimistic – just realistic in my views of the “wonderful” employment numbers.

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By: jk8588 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45089 Sun, 09 Dec 2012 11:39:32 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45089 By: Paul Craig Roberts| December 8, 2012 | Categories: Articles & Columns | Tags: Jobs, Shadowstats, Unemployment, Williams, | Print This Article
Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.”

There are a number of ongoing problems with the released numbers. For example, the concurrent-seasonal factor adjustments are unstable. The birth-death model adds non-existent jobs each month that are then taken out in the annual downward benchmark revisions. Williams calculates that the job overstatement through November averages 45,000 monthly. In other words, employment gains during 2012 have been overstated by about 500,000 jobs. Another problem is that each month’s jobs number is boosted by downside revision of the previous month’s jobs number. Williams reports that the 146,000 new jobs reported for November “was after a significant downside revision to October’s reporting. Net of prior-period revisions, November’s seasonally-adjusted monthly gain was 97,000.”

Even if we believe the government that 146,000 new jobs materialized during November, that is the amount necessary to stay even with population growth and therefore could not be responsible for reducing the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 7.7%. The reduction is due to how the unemployed are counted.

The 7.7% rate is known as the “headline rate.” It is the rate you hear in the news. Its official designation is U.3.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has another official unemployment rate known as U.6.
The difference is that U.3 does not include discouraged workers who are not currently actively seeking a job. (A discouraged worker is a person who has given up looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found.) The U.6 measure includes workers who have been discouraged for less than one year. The U.6 rate of unemployment is 14.4%, about double the headline rate.

The U.6 rate does not include long-term discouraged workers, those who have been discouraged for more than one year. John Williams estimates this rate and reports the actual rate of unemployment (known as SGS) in November to be 22.9%.

In other words, the headline rate of unemployment is one-third the actual rate.

The drop in the November headline rate of unemployment from 7.9 to 7.7 is due to a 20.4% increase in the number of short-term discouraged workers in November. In other words, unemployed people rolled out of the U.3 measure into the U.6 measure.
Similarly, a number of short-term discouraged workers roll out of the U.6 measure into John Williams’ measure that includes all of the unemployed. Williams reports that “with the continual rollover, the flow of headline workers continues into the short-term discouraged workers (U.6), and from U.6 into long term discouraged worker status (a ShadowStats.com measure), at what has been an accelerating pace. The aggregate November data show an increasing rate of individuals dropping out of the headline (U.3) labor force.” In other words, the headline rate of unemployment can drop even though the unemployed are having a harder time finding jobs.

The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Clinton administration. In 1994 the Clinton administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also
mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China, and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.

A government that wants to cut the social safety net doesn’t want you to know that the unemployment rate is 22.9%. A government that wants to cut the social safety net when between one-fifth and one-fourth of the work force is out of work looks hard-hearted, mean-spirited, and foolish. But if the government reports only one-third of the unemployed and presents that rate as falling, then the government can present its cuts as prudent to avoid falling over a “fiscal cliff.”

If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?

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By: jk8588 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45088 Sun, 09 Dec 2012 11:38:49 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45088 By: Paul Craig Roberts| December 8, 2012 | John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.”

There are a number of ongoing problems with the released numbers. For example, the concurrent-seasonal factor adjustments are unstable. The birth-death model adds non-existent jobs each month that are then taken out in the annual downward benchmark revisions. Williams calculates that the job overstatement through November averages 45,000 monthly. In other words, employment gains during 2012 have been overstated by about 500,000 jobs. Another problem is that each month’s jobs number is boosted by downside revision of the previous month’s jobs number. Williams reports that the 146,000 new jobs reported for November “was after a significant downside revision to October’s reporting. Net of prior-period revisions, November’s seasonally-adjusted monthly gain was 97,000.”

Even if we believe the government that 146,000 new jobs materialized during November, that is the amount necessary to stay even with population growth and therefore could not be responsible for reducing the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 7.7%. The reduction is due to how the unemployed are counted.

The 7.7% rate is known as the “headline rate.” It is the rate you hear in the news. Its official designation is U.3.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has another official unemployment rate known as U.6.
The difference is that U.3 does not include discouraged workers who are not currently actively seeking a job. (A discouraged worker is a person who has given up looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found.) The U.6 measure includes workers who have been discouraged for less than one year. The U.6 rate of unemployment is 14.4%, about double the headline rate.

The U.6 rate does not include long-term discouraged workers, those who have been discouraged for more than one year. John Williams estimates this rate and reports the actual rate of unemployment (known as SGS) in November to be 22.9%.

In other words, the headline rate of unemployment is one-third the actual rate.

The drop in the November headline rate of unemployment from 7.9 to 7.7 is due to a 20.4% increase in the number of short-term discouraged workers in November. In other words, unemployed people rolled out of the U.3 measure into the U.6 measure.
Similarly, a number of short-term discouraged workers roll out of the U.6 measure into John Williams’ measure that includes all of the unemployed. Williams reports that “with the continual rollover, the flow of headline workers continues into the short-term discouraged workers (U.6), and from U.6 into long term discouraged worker status (a ShadowStats.com measure), at what has been an accelerating pace. The aggregate November data show an increasing rate of individuals dropping out of the headline (U.3) labor force.” In other words, the headline rate of unemployment can drop even though the unemployed are having a harder time finding jobs.

The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Clinton administration. In 1994 the Clinton administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also
mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China, and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.

A government that wants to cut the social safety net doesn’t want you to know that the unemployment rate is 22.9%. A government that wants to cut the social safety net when between one-fifth and one-fourth of the work force is out of work looks hard-hearted, mean-spirited, and foolish. But if the government reports only one-third of the unemployed and presents that rate as falling, then the government can present its cuts as prudent to avoid falling over a “fiscal cliff.”

If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?

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By: TFF http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45085 Sat, 08 Dec 2012 15:51:24 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45085 Pulling up charts from the 2012 census, I see the following strong trends in labor force participation (focusing on the change from 2000 to 2010):

Labor force participation is down sharply among the young, ages 16-24, from 65.8% in 2000 to 55.2% in 2010. Best guess here is that high school graduates are finding few opportunities and are seeking college degrees instead. (College graduates also may need to pursue internships for a couple years before finding real employment.) Parents, get ready to support your adult children for a few years!

Labor force participation is down marginally for people between the ages of 25 and 54, falling from 84.2% in 2000 to 82.2% in 2010. This drop is broadly distributed across gender and age within this segment. This is likely the core of the “discouraged worker” meme.

Labor force participation is UP among those age 55+, especially among women (as the women who broke ground in the 1970s work their way up the demographic scale) but also among men. I would suggest that fewer jobs are physically demanding, allowing people to work longer than in the past, yet labor force participation for men age 55-64 was higher in 1980 than it is today, and for those age 65+ it dropped before it jumped again. I might suggest that economic uncertainty and weak investment markets (almost as high in 1980 as today) make it difficult for people to afford retirement?

To summarize:
* Young are staying in school or unpaid positions longer (a trend that seems unlikely to change).

* Middle-aged are having trouble finding worthwhile employment (which might improve as the economy slowly rebounds, and might already be a bit better than in 2010).

* Elderly are continuing to work well into “retirement” (again, a trend that seems unlikely to change).

So what *is* the natural rate of labor force participation today?

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By: TFF http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45084 Sat, 08 Dec 2012 14:12:57 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45084 All good choices, MrRFox, I can’t choose!

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By: MrRFox http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45079 Sat, 08 Dec 2012 04:19:42 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45079 This is more confusing than Elliott vs. Argentina and ‘The London Whale Trade’ – combined. About TFF & TFF17 –

Is it like troll-‘n-sockpuppet, or Tarzan-‘n-Boy (or Tarzan-‘n-Cheetah), or Dr. Evil-‘n-‘Mini-Me’, or Dr. Frankenstein-‘n- ….

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By: ekaneti http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45072 Fri, 07 Dec 2012 22:23:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45072 Ok time to raise interest rates.

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By: crocodilechuck http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45071 Fri, 07 Dec 2012 21:09:47 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45071 Calm down, Felix-there’s something oxymoronic about celebrating employment growth when over half of these positions are low wage dead end jobs:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/low -wage-sectors-drive-employment-growth/

Fortunately, here’s Toys ‘R Us* to the rescue (startin’ ’em young):

http://dangerousminds.net/comments/no_fu ture_for_you_mcdonalds_cash_register_pla yset_a_toysrus_exclusive

* owner: Bain Capital

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By: Twinkbait http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/07/the-employment-emergency-is-over/comment-page-1/#comment-45069 Fri, 07 Dec 2012 20:22:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=19734#comment-45069 It’s a sad and scary thing when one observes, “if you live with anything for more than a couple of years it becomes normal.”

This is exactly the Liberals goal; numb people to the potential of what could be so they’ll be dependent on bigger and bigger government for handouts which they won’t question where they come from or how their paid for.

It’s especially sad when we’re sitting on one of the world’s largest reserves of ridiculously cheap and accessible energy that would provide very high paying jobs, significantly reduce unemployment immediately (not even talking about all those who aren’t counted in the numbers above because they fell off the govt. stats that give the illusion of a marginally better situation), contribute by paying taxes and reducing the need for government payouts/help and actually reducing the national debt without Congress doing a thing (i.e. reach a negotiated deal and/or even more “economic stimulus”) while unleashing this economy’s economic potential.

No, this neutered USofA is what the liberals want and now own; dependent, mediocre and miserable. Reminds me of the book “1984,” now leave me alone with my gin as I watch Big Brother watching me.

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