Of course, nobody thinks job growth was steady. Well, then how do you think that real monthly (seasonally-adjusted) job growth varies? Suppose it is on the same order as error rate, which by construction is independent. We would naively expect to have to scale the confidence interval by something like root 2. And sure enough, 2 of the 25 observations seem to breach the modified 90% confidence interval. That seems reasonable.

Yes, the last 3 observations have small variations but there was a similar run from 2011-06 to 2001-08. Are you quite sure that is unusual?

]]>In other words, without knowing the true level of added jobs, you cannot make any claim about the difference of differences is.

]]>Also label your freaking axes. Are those thousands of jobs or percentages or what?

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