Counterparties: Ending capital punishment
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Apple may want to keep its capital, but big US banks want to return some of theirs. Tomorrow the Fed will release the first set of data from its stress tests. Bank execs will have to wait until next week to find out whether theyâ€™ll finally be allowed to return more capital to shareholders.
Bloombergâ€™s Dakin Campbell and Hugh Son write that US banks may return $41 billion to investors over the next year, using the average of estimates from research analysts at Barclays, Credit Suisse, and Morgan Stanley. As David Benoit notes, this is a turnaround from last year, when Bank of America and Citi were forced to keep their payouts at a pro forma cent a share.
Bank earnings rose 20% in 2012 and executives want to hand capital to shareholders, even if, as Benoit writes, theyâ€™re unlikely to return enough to drive major moves in bank stocks. Before they can do so, big banks must pass the Fedâ€™s stress tests, which simulate two scenarios. Scenario 1 is six consecutive quarters of economic contraction with rising interest rates; Scenario 2 is 13% unemployment combined with a 52% fall in the stock market.
Jesse Eisinger thinks Bank of America, for one, is being overoptimistic with respect to the amount of capital itâ€™s showing regulators. He says that the bank has low-balled the amount money it has set aside to pay future legal settlements, despite continuing to face lawsuits related to its ill-fated acquisition of Countrywide.
Banks have traditionally paid, and their investors have expected, healthy dividends. But since the financial crisis, that hasnâ€™t always been the case. The rest of the stock market is showering shareholders with unprecedented amounts of cash: as Cardiff Garcia points out, February was a record month for share buybacks. So far, however, non-financials have led the way. Because of the realities of post-crisis regulation, banks have to wait before finding out whether theyâ€™ll get to join the party. — Ben Walsh
On to todayâ€™s links:
Low-income students’ college completion rate is 6 times lower than high-income students’ – Bloomberg
A college degree is still the best indicator of employment for the young – Catherine Rampell
Citigroup explores the novel idea of measuring employee performance using data – Jonathan Weil
Michael Corbat: “You are what you measure” – WSJ
The US attorney general is worried that America’s banks are too big to prosecute – The Hill