Comments on: Annals of quantitative overconfidence, Boeing edition http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/ A slice of lime in the soda Sun, 26 Oct 2014 19:05:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: best essay writer http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-54959 Mon, 13 Oct 2014 11:48:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-54959 This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger. I’ve joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your excellent post. Also, I have shared your web site in my social networks!

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By: bwickes http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-46204 Tue, 12 Mar 2013 17:27:56 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-46204 This post seemed real interesting until I saw that Taleb was being appealed to for authority. Then I knew it must be factually wrong.
Then I learned from comments that this battery is only used on the ground, that the managers overruled the engineers, and it was not engineers who over measure but managers who overrule.
Typical. Once a Taleb point is made the post must be wrong. That is a good mechanical observation.

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By: KenG_CA http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-46191 Tue, 12 Mar 2013 02:09:21 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-46191 Steve, it’s not that they calculated the possibility of a fire from some unknown cause to be zero, they were merely stating they didn’t know of any other way the batteries could catch fire:

“determined that overcharging was the only known failure mode that could result in cell venting with fire”.

It’s not a calculation of a probability, it’s just them saying that the only way they think batteries could catch fire is if they overcharged them.

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By: SteveHamlin http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-46170 Mon, 11 Mar 2013 14:21:47 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-46170 @KenG_CA: “Obviously, they cannot calculate the possibility of a fire from some unknown cause.” But they did so caluclate, and they calculated that possibility of the unknown at Zero.

“But that probability is most likely valid” The difference between never/1-in-a-billion and 1-in-29,000-hours is not a matter a confusion of statistical probability for observed occurrences, it is a difference between “most likely valid” and “not valid at all”. That is, between right and demonstrably wrong.

@TimWorstall:

Fenyman did lead the overall Challenger review (a national treasure, he was). Edward Tufte later expanded on Feynman’s description of the O-ring decisions, and focused on the failures of engineering communications methods that lead to the bad decisions to begin with. Tufte showed the charts created by Morton about the O-rings, and used by NASA engineers to overrule a few Morton engineer’s objections to launch, were terrible and misleading. Literally, a better chart would have probably saved the Challenger.

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By: ezra567 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-46160 Mon, 11 Mar 2013 02:23:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-46160 must be nice to be FS, can criticize people, and no one around with any real knowledge to fight back….

If you had bothered to spend about 5 seconds reading up, you would discover that the last time new battery technology was brought on board – when lead acid was replaced by nicad – there were all sorts of problems; thats what happens with new technology.
Planes used to fall out of the sky regularly; recently, disasters have been few so we are accustomed to a much lower failure rate

know what etops means ?
the LI batteries are important because they allow thie plane to fly a route where they can be up to 5 hours from a airport.
if you bother to look at a globe you see that , esp in the pacific, this opens up all sorts of new routes for this plane..which is a big point to the customers, with theability to fly a route where the plane is 5 hours from any availalbe runway, they can do all sorts of new direct flughts…

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By: otherelbow http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/annals-of-quantitative-overconfidence-boeing-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-46154 Sun, 10 Mar 2013 13:37:03 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/?p=20846#comment-46154 After reading the first few sentences, I can’t take this article seriously. An APU is not a battery…not even close. The APU is a small gas turbine engine that drives an electric generator that feeds the electric bus.
Typical half-a$$ed journalism. 5 minutes of research would have made you look like you actually tried on this article.

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