The good and bad of Dave Ramsey

By Felix Salmon
September 26, 2013

 

Back in June, Dave Ramsey declared war on professional financial advisers via Twitter. One thing led to another, and the upshot, now, is that I’ve published a 3,000-word article on Ramsey’s investment advice in Money magazine.

Who is Dave Ramsey? If you’re a member of the coastal elite, you might remember him from Megan McArdle’s feature about his budgeting advice, which ran in the Atlantic a few years ago. If you’re a more typical flyover-state American, on the other hand, you probably know his radio show at first hand: he’s the third-most-popular radio personality in the country, behind Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity but ahead of Glenn Beck. Ramsey’s show is a potent mixture of god and mammon: his Financial Peace University claims to present “a biblically based curriculum that teaches people how to handle money God’s ways”.

The problem is that when it comes to investing, God would seem to be something of a financial illiterate. For instance, in his Total Money Makeover book, Ramsey writes that “Aggressive Growth funds get the last 25 percent of my investment. (They are sometimes called Small Cap or Emerging Markets funds.)” Given that another 25% of Ramsey’s asset allocation goes to International funds, followers of Ramsey’s advice could end up putting 50% of their money in international stocks.

Ramsey also claimsfalsely but repeatedly — that it’s reasonable to expect a 12% return on your investments, and that therefore it is reasonable to take out 8% of your savings every year, after you’ve retired. This is a recipe for disaster: over the course of a 30-year retirement, the 8% withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation as Ramsey recommends, would run out of money 56% of the time. Here, for instance, is a sample worksheet from his book, calculating that if you want to live on $30,000 per year, you’ll need a nest egg of just $375,000:

 

ramsey.png

All of which would make it very easy to hate on Ramsey, and to side with the financial advisers he aligns himself against. But the fact is that it’s more complicated than that. The fact is that, realistically, the overwhelming majority of people who follow Ramsey’s advice are never going to reach the point at which they invest a penny. (Before they get there, they have to pay down all their debts, and then build up an emergency fund containing six months’ worth of expenses.) Ramsey isn’t harming people who don’t take his investment advice: if anything he’s helping them, by giving them something to aspire to.

Meanwhile, financial advisors cater to the rich, not to the mass market. If you sign up with Dave Ramsey, you will get financial advice, and it won’t cost you much if you’re not investing much. Yes, you’ll be steered into wildly inappropriate funds which carry up-front fees of somewhere north of 5%. And yes, Ramsey will get highly disingenuous when it comes to defending those indefensible fees. But, once again, Ramsey isn’t talking to people with seven-figure sums to invest: he’s talking to people who could never get past the front door at most financial advisers. A highly-recommended and beyond-reproach adviser like Galia Gichon charges $250 per hour: if you have just three sessions with her, that’s $750. And $750 is 5.75% of $13,000: if you’re investing less than that, in a weird way you’re saving money by paying up-front commissions.

To put it another way: there’s a tiny subset of Ramsey clients who do invest, and nearly all of them invest less than $10,000 per year. Those people neither can nor should be shelling out $250 an hour for financial advice — especially seeing as how they’ve already got themselves in a pretty good place by following Dave Ramsey. What they really need is someone to talk to, someone to hold their hand and encourage them to keep on saving, even after they’ve paid off their debts and built up their emergency fund.

Investing, no less than paying down debt, is all about discipline and goal-setting and having a clear idea of why you’re doing what you’re doing. But in some ways, investing is harder than paying down debt. Debt hangs over you; it’s a nasty, omnipresent cloud which never makes you feel better and often makes you feel worse. Under Ramsey’s plan, you budget carefully, cut up all your credit cards, and use only cash, pre-distributed into different envelopes dedicated to different types of expenses. Everything is worked out from your budget, and since your budget involves living within your means, there’s money left over to steadily pay down your debts. It’s an efficient and effective system, and once you’ve paid off a couple of your smaller debts, you can see that it works and that you’re on your way to becoming debt-free.

Once your debts are paid off, however, the temptations of the hedonic treadmill return. Without the dark cloud of debt, you’re free to spend every last penny you earn: free to buy that shiny bicycle, take that much-deserved vacation, replace that sagging mattress. Putting that sixth month’s salary into your emergency fund doesn’t feel as though it’s nearly as much of an achievement as does paying off your credit-card debt in full. And it’s hard to get support from your peers: personal finance is the last taboo subject, the one thing we never talk about in polite company.

So once you’ve paid off your debts, once you’ve put tens of thousands of dollars in the bank, who’s going to keep you on the straight and narrow? Who’s going to persuade you that continuing to pay for everything in cash, out of envelopes, is a good idea, rather than being an infantilizing embarrassment?

Some financial advisors might pretend that they’re charging money because they’re smart at picking investments, but really that’s the least valuable thing that they do. Ramsey’s advisors will accept anybody, and they will do the valuable thing — just being there, mainly, in a world where it’s incredibly difficult to find someone to talk honestly to about money — for what in dollar terms can be a very low sum.

I don’t like Ramsey’s investment-advice model any more than I like his investment advice. It’s based on hidden kickbacks from advisors to Ramsey himself, and the income Ramsey gets from the investment-advice arm of his empire is clearly a large part of the reason why his investment advice is so bad. If you’re disciplined enough to follow Ramsey’s advice on getting out of debt, then you’re disciplined enough not to need to pay an advisor 5.75% of your savings just to hold your hand. And you should be treated with respect, which means that you shouldn’t be lied to about the returns you can expect or the amount of money you’ll really need in retirement.

But I can’t hate Ramsey in general just because of the small part of his empire which gives investment advice. The rest of what he says is very solid — and he’s clearly done a great job of reaching a very wide audience. On top of that, there are lots of people who sincerely feel that they need individual investment advice — and most of those individuals are simply not catered to by the existing financial-services industry. Dave Ramsey’s advisers surely have their problems. But there’s a colorable argument that they’re better than nothing.

With a financial advisor, it’s that much harder to fall off the Dave Ramsey wagon: you’ve got a friend, now, whom you’re accountable to, every time you go over budget on your spending or fail to make a planned deposit into your investment portfolio.

And ultimately, when it comes to investing, that’s what really matters. It’s easy to get caught up in the narcissism of small differences, to argue whether it’s more realistic to tell people to expect 4% returns rather than 8% returns or even 12% returns. It’s even easier to extrapolate those returns over many decades, to make the difference in the end result look as large as possible.

But the fact is that the amount you end up with, at retirement, is not really a function of your investment decisions — not to a first approximation, and not even to a second approximation, either. The first and biggest driver of your total wealth at retirement is simply the amount of money that you managed to save, in total, over the course of your working life. The more money you put away, and the less money you spent, the more you’ll end up with at the end of the day.

After that, the secondary driver — and it’s much smaller than the primary driver — is general market returns, the market beta. If you’re lucky enough to be investing over the course of a thirty-year bull market, then you’ll end up with substantially more money at the end than if you were stuck in a nasty bear market for most of your working life.

Last, and very much least, comes the question of which specific investments you make: whether you’re in mutual funds, or in stocks, or in ETFs; whether and how you pay commissions; how tax-efficient your investments are; how much you pay in fees; how much your investments outperform or underperform the market; and so on. These questions tend to be the ones which investment professionals concentrate on, since they’re the questions where they have a professional advantage and can, in theory, make a difference.

But let’s keep things in perspective, here. Ramsey is good at the main thing, which is encouraging his followers to save as much as possible. He’s bad at telling them how to save, and of course he has no control at all over how well the market as a whole performs. But if you asked me to predict which person was likely to end up with the greater sum of money at retirement, I might well pick the person on the Ramsey program paying a 5.75% up-front fee on all of her investments, over a self-directed individual following first-rate advice from Jack Bogle. And the reason is that Ramsey’s followers are disciplined spenders. Which can make much more of a difference than any kind of investing strategy ever will.

Comments
8 comments so far

“you’ll end up with substantially more money at the end than if you were stuck in a nasty bear market for most of your working life”

As long as you are a net saver, you’re better off with a 30 y bear market, since you are accumulating more income producing assets at ever cheaper prices.

Posted by Panley | Report as abusive

I LOVE the phrase “…the temptations of the hedonic treadmill”. That is so apt.

The reality is Felix is correct. According to Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), 66% of U.S. workers and 64% of U.S. retirees have less than $50,000 in total savings (Ramsey’s “emergency fund” or the equivalent and retirement account balances).

And one reason for that is how Americans spend the money they have coming in while they are working. We need a “new sobriety” in America where consumers stop buying so much plastic fagalcarb imported from mainland China.

Posted by Strych09 | Report as abusive

As an evangelical Christian, I say, well said in broad, Felix. Ramsey is good at liability management. He has nothing to say regarding investing.

Posted by DavidMerkel | Report as abusive

The last sentence of your piece is for me the most telling.

Spending or more aptly a persons “spend rate” is a key component of any investing strategy.

Spend rates are a function of total overhead. Overhead includes such things as debt service and lifestyle. Once a family gets debt free they are partway to financial independence but only partway. If spending then spirals out of control, even without debt you’ll outlive your assets. There is simply no easy way out.

Based on our observations most (but not all) people have learned little to nothing since 2007-8. If they’re broke they are forced into a less desirable lifestyle. Those still making money in large part are still trying to maintain a pre-recession lifestyle in a post recession world.

I see that a christian person has posted a comment here. I’d ask David his opinion regarding the morality of investing in a QE/infinity, ZIRP world where anything resembling financial market regulation has been watered down via hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Wall Street lobbying.

I’m not a religious man, but I see a moral problem with people participating in the equity markets in this environment. It should seem that government and Fed policy now takes from the poor and gives to the equity markets. Lower class savers receive nothing while markets are bid up via zero interest rate policies. I don’t participate as an equity owner any longer preferring to park my assets as cash in stable credit unions and smaller banks (I research these institutions). Fortunately I can afford the low returns I get. I cannot feel good about making money on the backs of others. Not like this.

Posted by Missinginaction | Report as abusive

interesting comment about the shiny new bicycle and the bed as “bad investments”. A good bed gives good sleep, which makes one more effective at work and play. A bicycle can save you gas and wear and tear on your tires, plus allow you to live longer.

Seem like good investments to me. My main concerns with Ramsey are that he underemphasizes the importance of keeping interest rates on debt as low as possible, which can be done via debt consolidation, and that he funnels emotional energy towards finances, which is better directed at being happy.

Posted by stevo1729 | Report as abusive

I am 25 and my wife and I have followed DR’s advise for years. We have a paid for house (cheap forclosure, we are saving up for an upgrade), and have almost 60k in retirement accounts. It’s is also worth noting that neither of us has made over 50k individually in a year. His advise is solid for most people. So to say that people following his advise won’t have enough to justify an hourly adviser is just wrong.

I agree that his investment strategy is not efficient (mostly due to loads and fees). However, I do agree with exclusively investing in equities while building your nest egg.

+1 Missinginaction (above comment): Having low spend rate is the only way to build wealth.

Posted by bdBrooks | Report as abusive

You could certainly see your enthusiasm in the paintings you write. The sector hopes for even more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. Always go after your heart. “We may pass violets looking for roses. We may pass contentment looking for victory.” by Bern Williams.

I want to express some thanks to this writer for bailing me out of this trouble. Just after surfing throughout the world-wide-web and finding recommendations which are not pleasant, I was thinking my life was over. Existing without the presence of answers to the issues you’ve fixed by means of your good post is a critical case, and those that might have adversely damaged my entire career if I hadn’t noticed your web page. The talents and kindness in maneuvering all things was excellent. I am not sure what I would’ve done if I had not encountered such a point like this. I’m able to now look ahead to my future. Thanks a lot very much for your professional and amazing help. I will not be reluctant to propose your web blog to any individual who needs tips about this subject.

Post Your Comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/