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By: macrosophia Sun, 01 Dec 2013 01:17:30 +0000 It’s clear that Treasury bonds will make a large move in the next few weeks– maybe as early as Friday 12/6 in response to the NFP report. Traders are leaning pretty short , and the move will probably be Up (lower rates), but you really don’t have to guess; due to relatively low option prices, you can buy both a put and a call to take advantage of the coming increase in volatility. Use options expiring in late January, and once the direction is clear, sell the losing side and let the winning side ride. Expect to double your money or more with this trade.
Conservative investors should look at closed end bond funds, which are selling at discounts that come around once every few years– esp in tax free bond funds and mortgage funds. Once tax loss selling runs its course in December, you will probably be looking at 5-7% gains by mid-February– a pretty good start to the year.
There is lots of emotion in the bond markets– strong opinions about rates– and this makes for lots of opportunity. What fun.

By: dbfried Mon, 25 Nov 2013 21:18:42 +0000 In figure 3, domestically issued EM debts aren’t included. I wonder if the exclusion of those bonds – which are accounting for an ever greater share of EM sovereign debt (and even to some extent private debt)- can account for a large portion of the fall in bond supply. Clearly this is a question or scale. But I don’t really know just how large domestic EM bond markets are.

By: ReutersRat Sat, 23 Nov 2013 13:47:33 +0000 Also:

Very odd use of “supply” and “demand.”

I think they mean here: “bonds issued” and “bonds purchased” (both: dollar value at sale?).

These must be equal, no, at least ex post?

By: FelixSalmon Sat, 23 Nov 2013 13:08:10 +0000 Yeah, that’s a bit confusing. $500B of the decline in demand comes from the taper, but not all of it. There’s declines in demand elsewhere, too.

By: Knick Sat, 23 Nov 2013 09:46:53 +0000 “The world’s national deficits can’t get funded any other way.”

They could but only if interest rates rose to a level to balance the market. No more free money.

By: ReutersRat Fri, 22 Nov 2013 23:24:41 +0000 Now wait a minute here.

“we expect bond supply to decline by $600bn in 2014 to $1.8tr, more than offsetting the $500bn decline in bond demand due to Fed tapering. The balance between supply and demand, i.e. excess supply, looks set to widen from $140bn in 2013 to $280bn in 2014.”

If supply declines by $100bn more than demand, the balance (excess supply) should narrow by $100bn, not widen by $140bn.