Opinion

Felix Salmon

Niall Ferguson’s history with Keynes

Felix Salmon
May 7, 2013 15:06 UTC

Brad DeLong has found a 1995 article by Niall Ferguson which pretty much puts the lie to Ferguson’s claim about his take on John Maynard Keynes. Here’s what Ferguson now says:

My disagreements with Keynes’s economic philosophy have never had anything to do with his sexual orientation. It is simply false to suggest, as I did, that his approach to economic policy was inspired by any aspect of his personal life.

And here’s what he wrote in 1995:

Research in German archives shows that Keynes’s critique of the Versailles Treaty was based on anything but dispassionate economic analysis. Few, if any, of its readers can have appreciated how far the ideas contained in The Economic Consequences of the Peace — the book which made him a celebrity — were actually inspired by members of the German peace delegation at the Versailles conference. Still fewer knew that their appeal to him owed as much to his homosexuality as to his Germanophilia.

Ferguson writes that “the attraction Keynes felt” for the German representative Carl Melchior “strongly influenced his judgment”, and adds for good measure that “those familiar with Bloomsbury will appreciate why Keynes fell so hard for the representative of an enemy power”. Here’s the whole thing:

This is a slightly different argument, of course, to the idiotic remarks Ferguson made at a conference in California last week, where he said that Keynes didn’t care about future generations because he was gay and didn’t have children. If those remarks were, in Ferguson’s own words, “doubly stupid”, then maybe his Spectator article is maybe only singly stupid. Except it was carefully written, edited, and committed to print: Ferguson can’t claim that his article was merely a regrettable “off-the-cuff” error.

At first blush, Ferguson’s apology is full and unqualified. But in light of this and other information, it seems that Ferguson has rather more to apologize for than a single verbal response to a question from Paul McCulley. Either Ferguson still believes today what he wrote in 1995, or else he has changed his mind and now believes that what he wrote back then is “simply false”. It’s about time he clears this up.

Update: It seems we can’t take Ferguson’s apology at face value after all. In an ill-tempered letter written to the Harvard Crimson, Ferguson says that he can’t be prejudiced because he has a Somalian wife and a gay friend; says that “the strong attraction Keynes felt for the German banker Carl Melchior undoubtedly played a part in shaping Keynes’ views on the Treaty of Versailles and its aftermath”; and adds that Keynes and the other members of the Bloomsbury Group “had no doubt at all that sexual orientation had a significance beyond the narrow confines of the bedroom, and that intellectual life and emotional life were intertwined”. I guess it’s not “simply false” after all to suggest that Keynes’s approach to economic policy was inspired by any aspect of his personal life.

COMMENT

Is the author gay? I don’t see the reason for attacking ferguson. Not that I like/dislike ferguson, but he just says a faggot mixes between his feelings and his thoughts, what’s wrong with that unless u r gay and ur feelings got hurt.

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Counterparties: Split personalities

Ben Walsh
May 6, 2013 22:11 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

Institutional Shareholder Services’ message is clear: no one man should have all that power.

More specifically, ISS has declared Jamie Dimon shouldn’t be JP Morgan’s chairman and CEO. The firm, which advises shareholders on corporate voting, is also recommending that its clients not support the reelection of three of the bank’s directors. Each of those directors — David Cote, James Crown and Ellen Futter — sits on the bank’s risk committee. The proposal to split the roles of chairman and CEO is non-binding; the re-election of board members is binding. It’s unclear whether either measure will pass.

The risk committee, whose oversight failed spectacularly prior to and during last year’s $6.2 billion trading loss, has no members who have worked at a bank or as financial risk managers. ISS called the committee members’ “lack of robust industry-specific experience” odd, particularly compared to their counterparts at JPM’s competitors.

The WSJ’s Francesco Guerrera wrote last month that the era of the “imperial chief executive” might be winding down on Wall Street. The trend goes beyond finance. Boeing and GE faced (and defeated) proposals to split the roles of chairman and CEO this year. With shareholders demanding more scrutiny of management, the “current Wall Street incumbents are likely to be the last ones to hold a dual role”.

Dimon does have at least one high profile shareholder on his side. Warren Buffett says he is “100% for Jamie… I couldn’t think of a better chairman”, which is no surprise to Jonathan Weil. JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway share a director (Stephen Burke), and Buffett is a JP Morgan shareholder. The avuncular investor is also chairman and CEO of his own company, but tellingly, that won’t continue past his lifetime.

Shareholders may be able to take comfort in executives’ discomfort. One study found that “companies that had separated the two roles received a 28-percent higher five-year return”. – Ben Walsh

On to today’s links:

Lawsuits
NY attorney general to sue BofA and Wells Fargo over mortgage practices – Reuters

Remuneration
The top paying-industry for big-name execs? Media – NYT

Subsidies
The average student pays just 55% of the advertised price for college – WSJ

Austerity Bites
The era of austerity is over, according to the French finance minister – Bloomberg
“There probably will not be any major changes in Europe until after Merkel’s reelection” on Sept. 22 – Calculated Risk

Legalese
The Supreme Court under Roberts is the most business-friendly court since WWII – NYT
“How business fares in the Supreme Court” – Minnesota Law Review
MBIA, Bank of America reach legal settlement - Reuters

Deals
BMC Software agrees to $6.9 billion acquisition by private equity group – Reuters
The deal is a win for private equity, and for major shareholder Elliott Management – DealBook

New Normal
The recovery is non-existent if you don’t have a college degree – Josh Brown

Possibly Useless Data
“The data crunchers are invading Hollywood” – NYT

Remuneration
Are stock buybacks in the interest of shareholders or CEO bonuses? Both. Maybe. – WSJ
“Buybacks are an efficient way of returning money to shareholders of a shrinking company” – Felix

Yikes
If you’ve ordered mutton in China recently you may have eaten rat – Reuters

Alpha
Is Soros shorting the Australian dollar? Someone seems to be – Sydney Morning Herald

Startups
The Instagram story: From launch to a $1 billion sale in 18 months – Kara Swisher

And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

COMMENT

I’d really like to see a frequency distribution associated with college payment rates, since I assume averages aren’t very useful.

From the article, 40% of Berkeley undergrads have full scholarships. If the remaining class paid full price, we’d have an “average” sticker price of 60%, although no student would be paying this rate.

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Why CEOs should be rewarded for stock buybacks

Felix Salmon
May 6, 2013 17:03 UTC

Scott Thurm and Serena Ng have an odd piece in today’s WSJ, complaining about executive pay being tied to per-share results rather than overall numbers. Their poster child is Safeway CEO Steven Burd, who has overseen a substantial increase in earnings per share even as sales and profits have gone nowhere, by spending $1.2 billion on stock buybacks.

The implication here is that public companies should be concentrating on growth, rather than on more financial metrics like earnings per share or return on equity. And I think that’s exactly wrong. Not all companies should be growing; some of them, in order to maximize their return on capital, should instead be shrinking. The world’s biggest banks are a good example: most of them are trying to shrink, because doing so will make them leaner, more efficient, and ultimately more valuable.

Stock buybacks aren’t always a good idea: companies do have a tendency to spend far too much money on them at exactly the wrong time, when the share price is high. (There are many examples, but one of the most tragic is probably the New York Times Company, which today is in desperate need of the $2.7 billion it spent on stock buybacks between 1998 and 2004, when the stock was much more expensive than it is now.)

On the other hand, stock buybacks are a very efficient way of returning money to shareholders: they’re basically a pick-your-own-dividend scheme. Many shareholders, especially individual shareholders in high tax brackets, dislike dividends, because they’re taxable income. But if a company takes the money it would otherwise spend on dividends, and spends it instead on buybacks, then shareholders have a choice: they can sell any proportion of their shares back to the company, in line with their liquidity needs, and if they sell nothing then the value of their shares goes up just because the total number of shares is going down. On top of that, companies don’t feel the same need to maintain a steady level of buybacks, in the way that they do feel the need to maintain a steady level of dividends.

If more public companies concentrated on earnings per share rather than overall earnings growth, that would probably be a good thing. Right now, it’s almost impossible to be a successful CEO of a public company whose industry or company is in long-term secular decline. And private-equity companies are well aware of that fact: they love to buy up such firms and extract vast amounts of money from them before they die. Rather than see the spoils of such tactics accrue mainly to the Mitt Romneys of this world, it would be great if the broad shareholding public could also participate in the efficient rotation of capital out of declining industries and into growing ones.

That’s the way the stock market is meant to work, after all: you invest in companies while they are growing, in the hope and expectation that you will be able to make money from their high future cashflows once they reach maturity. But in practice the stock market has great difficulty valuing companies which make large but falling profits, with the result that most of those profits ultimately end up going to private-equity types once the companies are acquired in a leveraged buy-out.

Safeway is faced with a choice right now: it can burn billions of dollars in what would probably be a fruitless attempt to compete with Walmart, or it can return those billions to shareholders, to be reinvested in more promising areas. Safeway’s CEO should choose between those options dispassionately, rather than simply assuming that more investment is always better — and his board should compensate him in such a way that he’s incentivized to make the best decision, rather than always going for growth.

Stock buybacks are an efficient way of returning money to shareholders of a shrinking company, and as such they’re an important part of the public-company CEO toolbox. I’m sure they can be abused at times to manipulate quarterly earnings. But they can also be a pretty efficient way of doing what the stock market is meant to do best: distributing capital to where it can be most effectively deployed. If Safeway has more capital than it can efficiently use, then it should return that capital to the market, where it can be recycled into more promising investments. And in principle it’s entirely reasonable to reward the CEO for doing just that.

COMMENT

Felix, test your take against David Stockman’s, who, after summarizing how Cisco and ExxonMobil have used stock buybacks to enrich senior management, writes:

“The truth of the matter is that the management and board of … most public companies, are addicted to share buybacks. Buy-backs are the giant prop which keeps share prices elevated, existing stock options in the money and the dilutive impact of new awards obfuscated. They are also the corporate laundry where Federal income taxes are rinsed out of top executive compensation through the magic of capital gains.”

David Stockman, “The Great Deformation,” p. 458.

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Why America’s population density is falling

Felix Salmon
May 4, 2013 18:14 UTC

I’m not sure why it took me until yesterday to find Paul Krugman’s post from April 16 about population density, where he found a very odd fact buried in a new Census report. We know that the population of the US is rising, and we know that the population of the US is also becoming increasingly urban. As a result, urban density — the number of people per square mile — has to be going up.

And yet, if you calculate density the right way, weighting by population rather than by land area, you find something very odd: density is actually going down.

041613krugman2-blog480.png

In the US as a whole, population-weighted population density fell by 16 people per square mile between 2000 and 2010, while in metropolitan areas it fell by an enormous 405 people per square mile. What could be going on? The best answer, I think, comes from David Schleicher, a George Mason professor who’s an expert on the political economy of urban areas.

If you look at property and land prices in America’s cities, they rose impressively between 2000 and 2010, the property bubble and crash nothwithstanding. Cities are increasingly attractive and expensive places to live; that’s a trend which isn’t going away any time soon. And historically, when urban property values rise, it doesn’t take long for property developers to pounce on the trend. New buildings rise; whole neighborhoods get rezoned. With billions of dollars at stake, politically-connected developers normally find a way to get what they want somehow.

That’s exactly what has happened in, say, Miami, where shiny new condos rise in lockstep with property values. But note something important about Miami: those condos are being bought largely by foreigners, who have little if any political clout in the city. In most US cities, by contrast, rising property values in recent years have meant something different: a rise in the number of politically-powerful groups and individuals moving back into the city from the suburbs.

These rich and powerful have two important effects on urban density. Firstly, they decrease density just by moving to the city: they do that by dint of the fact that they live in larger homes with smaller families. My apartment in New York’s East Village, for instance, is in a 1920s tenement building, which was converted into condos in 1984. During the condo conversion, the old layout, of four apartments per floor, was scrapped in favor of a new layout with only two apartments per floor. But the number of people per apartment didn’t go up. And if the conversion were to take place today, the building would almost certainly be converted into “full-floor luxury residences”, with a keyed elevator opening directly into monster spaces. Again, without any discernible increase in the number of people per apartment.

Rich people like to maximize the amount of space they live in, whether they’re buying suburban McMansions or downtown lofts. As a result, higher property prices in dense urban areas are prone to making those areas less dense — at least until the developers come along.

This is where the second important effect of the rich-and-powerful comes into play. These people tend to fall on the spectrum somewhere between NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) and BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything). Just look at the vitriol hurled by carless Soho residents, for instance, at New York’s new bike-sharing stations. As urban areas become increasingly affluent, filled with wealthy politicians and their wealthier donors, it becomes harder and harder for developers to procure the zoning changes and construction permits they need in order to keep on producing new residential inventory.

The result is that the normal state of affairs — where powerful individuals get trumped by even more powerful construction-industry inevitabilities — is turned on its head, to the point at which new construction can no longer keep up with the de-densification endemic to gentrification. Bloggers may rail against this state of affairs — both Ryan Avent and Matt Yglesias have written at great length about how important it is to allow new buildings to rise within urban areas — but ultimately the natural conservatism of the rich is winning out, across the nation. If you want to move to a city where density is going up rather than down, you might just have to move to Miami. Or China.

COMMENT

Numerical measurements are bound to seem paradoxical if they are misnamed. “Population-weighted population density” is no doubt a useful statistic, but it is not a population density in the ordinary sense. This measure could very well be called the “crowding index.”

To illustrate this, consider a sparsely-populated rural region that has only one big shopping mall. During the day, some of the regional residents work in the mall, and many others shop there. People living outside the region seldom either shop or work there.

The result? During working hours, the “population-weighted population density” of the entire region shoots far above its value when the mall is closed.

You might say the whole region becomes more crowded Monday through Friday, but I, for one, would not like to say it becomes more dense.

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Counterparties: Masters of overcharging

Ben Walsh
May 3, 2013 21:25 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

JP Morgan may be going back to banking basics. Instead of losing billions in arcane, illiquid credit instruments, the bank’s latest scandal is a classic: overcharging unwitting customers.

Jessica Silver-Greenberg and Ben Protess report that JP Morgan is in some very hot water with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). According to an agency memo, the bank turned “money-losing power plants into powerful profit centers”.

Under other circumstances, that’d be just another win for JP Morgan’s booming commodities division. The problem is that JP Morgan’s success came through allegedly duping California and Michigan state officials into overpaying for energy by $83 million. These same allegations were included in Joshua Rosner’s comprehensive review of the bank’s regulatory lapses published in March.

When confronted by regulators, Blythe Masters, the bank’s head of commodities, made “false and misleading statements”,  FERC says. The traders working for Masters “planned and executed a systematic cover-up” of the trades,” and an email from Masters instructed an internal document to be rewritten. Importantly, the agency plans to hold both JP Morgan and individuals at the bank liable for any infractions.

Additionally, the WSJ, relying on a separate confidential regulatory document, reports that the usually tame-to-a-fault Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is planning to punish the bank for its consumer debt collection practices.

The American Banker surveys the damage under the heading “Jamie in the hot seat”. Dimon has continued to revamp his management team — hiring a new new vice chairman yesterday to replace an outgoing ally. With at least eight federal agencies investigating the bank, JP Morgan may soon have additional management slots to fill, possibly including Dimon’s role as chairman. – Ben Walsh

On to today’s links:

Compelling
How textile kings weave a hold on Bangladesh – Reuters

Tech
Twitter hires Morgan Stanley banker, may or may not be considering an IPO – WSJ

Servicey
REITs with no employees are probably not great at looking out for investors – Bloomberg

EU Mess
European Commission suggests giving countries more time to get their deficits cuts in order – WSJ

Felix
A deeper look at the slow jobs recovery – Felix Salmon
Full text of the April jobs report – BLS

Wonks
Does population growth necessarily lead to higher housing prices? – Paul Krugman

Possibly Useless Data
On a price-per-hour basis, haute cuisine cheaper than a massage – Eatocracy

Good Points
Predicting jobs data is not only hard — it’s also useless – Barry Ritholtz

Ouch
BNP Paribas CEO satisfied with the bank’s 45% profit drop – CNBC

And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

COMMENT

What charming little thief Mr D is. Charming.

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Understanding the painfully slow jobs recovery

Felix Salmon
May 3, 2013 18:29 UTC

Today’s jobs report was a solid one, and shows that the recovery, while not exactly strong, is at least not slowing down: Neil Irwin calls it “amazingly consistent”. Whether you look at the past 1 month, 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, you’ll see the same thing: average payrolls growth of roughly 170,000 jobs per month. That’s not enough to bring unemployment down very quickly, given the natural growth in the workforce. But unemployment is coming down slowly. And at the rate we’re going, at some point in the second half of 2014 we should see total payrolls reach their pre-crisis levels, and the headline unemployment rate hit the key 6.5% level.

There’s a real human cost to the fact that unemployment is coming down so slowly, but there are lots of reasons why it’s very hard to bring it down more quickly. First and foremost, of course, is the fact that US GDP growth is mediocre, coming in at less than 2% per year over the past few years. That’s not the kind of V-shaped recovery which creates jobs. Calculated Risk’s justly-famous jobs chart shows just how bad the recession was for employment, and just how painfully slowly we’re scratching our way back: we’re more than five years into this jobs recession, and we’re still at the worst levels seen in the wake of the dot-com bust.

One of the reasons is the undisputed conclusion of Reinhart and Rogoff: that recoveries from financial crises are much slower than recoveries from other crises. But there’s something bigger going on, too, which Joe Stiglitz writes about today in a very wonky blog post for the IMF.

This is more than just a balance sheet crisis. There is a deeper cause: The United States and Europe are going through a structural transformation. There is a structural transformation associated with the move from manufacturing to a service sector economy. Additionally, changing comparative advantages requires massive adjustments in the structure of the North Atlantic countries.

To put it another way: what looks like a broad economic recovery is actually a combination of many trends, including the end of what turned out to be a very short and weak recovery in manufacturing employment. Here’s Irwin:

The fact that the overall job growth numbers have been extraordinarily stable does not mean there isn’t some real churn going on in the U.S. workforce. In the earliest phase of the recovery, manufacturing jobs was a major driver of job creation, but that turned out to be not a longer-term trend but a partial reversal of the steep declines of the recession. Now, job creation is entirely confined to the services sector: Manufacturing had no net change in employment, construction lost 6,000 jobs, and even mining and logging was a net negative.

Government employment, meanwhile, continued its long swoon… That leaves one sector to drive the train of job creation: private sector services. This particular month, there were strong gains in leisure and hospitality, retail jobs, and professional and business services, and health care has been a mainstay of the expansion.

Stiglitz makes the case that in a recovery with so many moving parts, the single blunt instrument of setting short-term interest rates at the Fed will never be enough, and that “there needs to be close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.”

What’s more, as Mohamed El-Erian says, policymakers should ideally be able to use job growth not just as a goal, but also as a tool for achieving other ends.

Robust employment growth would – and, let us hope, will – play a critical role in helping the US pivot to a better place… It would do this by maintaining consumption and allowing for a more sustainable savings rate; by countering an excessive upfront fall in public spending that increases the risk of a recession; by enabling the Fed to slowly and gradually normalise monetary policy before it breaks too many things; and by reducing the risk of financial bubbles.

The US economy is a highly complex machine, with many moving parts which ought to be working with each other rather than against each other. Stiglitz makes a strong case that the financial sector broadly is right now part of the problem rather than part of the solution: it’s not directing funding to help the economy grow and create jobs, even as it continues to represent a serious systemic risk. It should go without saying at this point that fiscal policy broadly is part of the problem as well: you don’t create jobs by firing people, and the government should be borrowing if and when the private sector won’t. And as for monetary policy — well, it’s probably too early to tell. It’s done a great job of making people with money richer, but it has had a much less obvious effect on creating jobs for those who want them and don’t have them.

And yet there’s real room for optimism in today’s jobs report. Look at the revised numbers for February: an incredibly heartening 332,000 jobs created, in one short month. Look at the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more: that unhappy cohort shrank by 5.6% in April alone, to 4.3 million people. It’s still far too high, but this time last year it was over 5 million, so we’re making a significant dent in what has been the toughest nut to crack.

We can — and should, and could, and must — do better than this. But doing so will require a thaw in the Washington gridlock. When Jack Lew became Treasury secretary, it was understood that the most crucial thing he could deliver would be greater cooperation between the White House, Treasury, and Capitol Hill. That hasn’t happened yet. I hope and trust that he’s been working very hard behind the scenes to make it happen — partly because he doesn’t seem to have achieved anything else, but mainly because it’s by far the most important thing that he could be doing right now. Behind the jobs numbers there are some powerful forces driving real recovery in large parts of the US economy. It’s Lew’s job to work with Congress to identify those forces, and to give them all the support the government can muster.

COMMENT

It is really disappointing to see all this commentary and no mention of 1) China and 2) predatory capitalism. There are two causes of the declining role of employment in our economy: outsourcing to lower wage geographies and a persistent culture of cutting all FTEs from corporations. The Great Recession merely accelerated these trends and legitimated massive cost cutting across all corporations in the US.

There really is no end to these trends. We would need a complete reengineering of the motivations of businesses and governmental policies to even slow down these trends. And note that not a single politician is wlling to tackle either one of these monsters.

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Counterparties: Underwater and over-bought

Shane Ferro
May 2, 2013 22:51 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

What’s driving the housing recovery? Earlier this week we got some bullish housing news from Case-Shiller: home prices rose in February at the fastest rate since 2006. Nationally, home prices were 9.3% higher than they were in February 2012, while prices in Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and San Francisco all rose more than 15%.

Those cities are in the five worst-off states in the nation when it comes to underwater mortgages, according to Fannie Mae: all of them have more than 30% of their mortgages worth more than the house in question. In Nevada, more than 50% of residential properties are underwater. And while serious delinquency rates are declining, they are still more than three times what is considered normal.

So what’s going on? One answer is that investors are snatching up homes. Blackstone is just one of a several Wall Street investors who believe that the recovery is real. Its global head of real estate told the LA Times that the key to recent price increases is that there weren’t enough homes built during the recession. That’s certainly the case in Phoenix, the subject of Susan Burfield’s recent Businessweek cover story. One economist describes the sprawling desert metropolis as “a lab where we’ve gotten to see the effects of a high foreclosure rate and high negative equity.”

A mid-March story in the LA Times described Blackstone’s strategy:

Blackstone and a handful of other firms believe prices fell too far in the hardest-hit markets. So they’re racing to buy up the bargains, rent them for short-term profit and hold them for long-term price appreciation. These firms say they’ve invented a new investment strategy that also serves the public good by fueling the housing recovery and sprucing up homes.

Today, some of the early purveyors of this strategy are already pulling out after realizing that it’s more expensive to be a landlord than they originally thought. Not only are returns on rents lower than expected, according to Reuters’ Matthew Goldstein, but the demand from investors for cheap houses has driven prices too far up for speculators.

But if investors stop buying homes, will real Americans be there to pick up the slack? Homeownership rates are now at the lowest they’ve been since 1995. According to Capital Economics, that statistic suggests that investors are “still the dominant force behind [the] housing rebound”. As a result, says Bill McBride, “This investor buying is making it very difficult for first time buyers to find a home, and this is probably keeping some potential buyers as renters – and maybe pushing up some buyers to higher price points just to buy.” – Shane Ferro

On to today’s links:

Earnings
Five reasons why this is the worst earnings report Facebook has ever issued – Christopher Mims

Offshoring
Latvia probably isn’t the next Cyprus, unless it is – Joseph Cotterill

LIEBOR
Strip clubs and ski weekends may have fueled the Libor scandal – WSJ

EU Mess
ECB cuts interest rates in Europe to 0.5%, a record low – Reuters
Why a rate cut in Europe won’t help - Simone Foxman

New Normal
Tom Friedman “manages to be both incomprehensible and incredibly offensive at the same time”  - Felix
Three charts showing how the workers of the world are screwed – Henry Blodget

Alpha
SAC Capital changes internal policies to make it more clear it doesn’t condone insider trading – DealBook
Downloadable Steve Cohen-as-Moby Dick desktop wallpaper – Vanity Fair
Activist investor asks UBS to drop its entire investment bank – WSJ

Disasters
Co-op apartment buildings do not legally qualify for FEMA aid - NYT

Day in the life
“Sensitive thugs, y’all need hugs” – Joris Luyendijk

Debates
Larry Summers and Glenn Hubbard do not agree on our economic future – Adam Davidson

Data Points
What’s your CEO-to-average worker pay ratio? – Bloomberg

And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

COMMENT

“At least now its all about money and greed.”

If only it were. If it WERE about only money and greed, we wouldn’t see austerity, we wouldn’t see the destruction of the middle class — these are not conducive to increasing GDP.

What it’s actually about is the maintenance of relative status, and that’s a far more destructive situation, with none of the dynamic churn that would characterize a truly money-driven situation. For example: lots of money to be made in future energy solution — but not if the existing energy companies can manipulate the legal and political environment to prevent that.

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Restaurant charts of the day, price/quality edition

Felix Salmon
May 2, 2013 20:55 UTC

daniel.png

San Pellegrino has released its annual list of the 50 best restaurants in the world, and of course Quartz is on it. “Ultimately,” writes Adam Pasick, “the world’s best restaurants cater to a global elite who can afford to spend thousands of dollars for a meal”. It turn, that means Quartz, a publication devoted (in both senses of the word) to the global elite, needs to be all over it, with an analysis of how fast-growing countries are over-represented among the restaurants “making big leaps up the rankings”.

But Pasick well knows — because he commissioned this article from me when he was at NYMag — that the elite level of gastro-porn restaurants are not actually targeted at the kind of tourists “that can take a Gulfstream to dinner,” as he puts it. Yes, the San Pellegrino restaurants are expensive. But they’re not international plutocrat, private-jet expensive; anybody in the “mass affluent” can afford to go to any of them, as a special occasion. And indeed unless you happen to live in the same city as one of these restaurants, it’s going to cost you more to get there than it is to eat there.

The chart above, diligently put together by Ben Walsh, shows the top 50 restaurants, in order, with the prices on their websites. (The short green stubs are the restaurants who either don’t put their prices on their website, or who make them so ridiculously hard to find that we ultimately just gave up.) These restaurants like to deal in prix-fixe set menus, which is convenient: the menu prices range from 1800 Thai baht, or $61, at Nahm, to £195, or $304, at the Fat Duck.

Interestingly, it’s hard to tell whether restaurants in fast-growing emerging countries are generally cheaper or more expensive than the ones in developed nations: all of the restaurants in Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Singapore, and mainland China, for instance, have those green bars and are very opaque on pricing. But what we can tell is that there’s no relationship at all between price and quality.

Here’s the scatter chart: there’s no correlation here, but maybe you can see a bit of a clustering around the $200 level.

scatter.png

And to underline just how random these things are, here’s the same chart only this time using the price rank rather than the absolute price.

scatter12.png

What we’re emphatically not seeing here is any kind of massive price spike among the top 0.01% of restaurants, which you might expect if those restaurants were in fact patronized by the richest 0.01% of people. What we are seeing is a group of expensive restaurants, charging expensive-restaurant prices, but whose position on this list is entirely unrelated to the amount that they charge.

I’m sure there are restaurants in the world — including high-end sushi places — which are more expensive than any of the restaurants on this list. More to the point, I’d expect that all the restaurants on this list offer many bottles of wine whose price is many multiples of their most expensive set menu. With wine, the sky’s the limit when it comes to price; with food, there really does seem to be a limit, somewhere around the $300 per person level. That’s not cheap, by any means. But it’s not the kind of price which is only affordable if you have a private jet and live in a $20 million home. The world of restaurants, it turns out, is positively democratic, at least compared to areas like wine or property. Or even, for that matter, high-end handbags.

COMMENT

“In terms of value for money, cheap street food beats high-priced “cuisine” any day of the week and twice on Sunday.”

It entirely depends on what you want.

I agree that there is some amazing street food. I patronize food trucks for lunch quite frequently. OTOH, sometimes they’ve been disappointing (and once I got some kind of food poisoning — the hygiene standards at high end places are, I suspect, better than that, or at least they’ve never burned me).

What you will _never_ get from street food is the artistry and innovation you find in high end places. High-end places are making much more deliberate choices about how to tweak every aspect of the food — how it interacts with at least four senses (visual, smell, taste, touch), and sometimes even all five, if you look at something like, say, Elizabeth Falkner’s signature Explosive Caesar Salad (which includes parmesan “pop rocks” that sizzle on your tongue). There’s also an element of stage-craft or performance art in the way the food is presented.

If you’re not into it, fine, don’t go — there’ll be more seats available and lower prices for those of us who want to. But saying that street food is a “better value” _universally_ is like saying, “God, how stupid are those people paying to see the Metropolitan Opera, when they could find people busking on the street, who would be happy to get paid a dollar.” Some of us _like_ opera, and choose to devote some of our resources to experiencing it as performed at the very peak of human ability (in terms of the singing, stagecraft, etc). Others of us _like_ cuisine, and want to experience the edges of what’s possible with that artform. And apparently the market of people who truly love that artform will easily bear a price somewhere in the $150/plate range.

I will say that there definitely are some very expensive places that are expensive purely because of the crowd they cater to, or because they’re coasting on reputation / tradition — places that the bigwigs of some local industry (bankers, lawyers, politicians, actors) have been patronizing for ages. Nobody who doesn’t care about being a member of the tribe should ever bother going.

But I definitely disagree with the idea that there’s no improvement in quality above $30/plate. I’ve been to plenty of places that _entirely_ justified much higher prices than that.

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Why Rhode Island isn’t defaulting on its moral obligations

Felix Salmon
May 1, 2013 23:31 UTC

Josh Barro has a strong column today on the confusion and hypocrisy in Rhode Island; he gets equally strong support for his position from Ted Nesi.

The argument here is pretty simple. The state of Rhode Island has various obligations; among those obligations are pension obligations, general obligation bonds, and moral obligation bonds. The legislature and governor of the state are happy defaulting on their pension obligations, which are contractually obliged to rise in line with the cost of living: by freezing the pensions instead, some retirees will see their incomes slashed by a third.

Yet at the same time Rhode Island is determined to pay out the holders of moral obligation bonds in full.

Rhode Island’s pensioners would seem to be more deserving than the moral obligation bondholders, who sought out those bonds precisely because they carried an excess yield. The market priced in the fact that the bonds were more likely to default than general obligation bonds — and yet, when push came to shove, the state is standing behind those bonds, even as it cuts a billion dollars from promised future pension payments.

I think the argument here is a solid one, but there’s a gentle whiff of the faux-naive about it, as well. So without taking Lincoln Chafee’s side of the argument, let me try to explain what he might say, were he in a position to be honest about things.

The key here is the legislature voters. Why would any state ever issue non-legally-binding moral obligation bonds rather than legally binding general obligation bonds, given that the moral obligation bonds cost more to service? The answer is simple: general obligation bonds can’t be issued without the legislature’s voters’ approval, and getting that approval is a pain. So the executive doesn’t bother, and issues moral obligation bonds instead.

This is the first reason why the governor won’t default on the bonds: they’re obligations of the executive, and governors tend to honor each others’ obligations.

On top of that, when the governor signs into law a pension default which has the strong support of the legislature, that’s the whole government making the decision to cut pensions: it’s not a purely executive action. Blame shared is blame diluted. The governor is also in a weird way hewing to the principle underlying general obligation bonds: once the legislature electorate has managed to agree on something, then at that point it carries especial authority.

There’s also a more important reason why Rhode Island isn’t defaulting on its moral obligation bonds — and that’s the simple fact of what a moral obligation is. It’s true that moral obligations don’t carry the force of law. But they are pretty much equivalent to the US government, for instance, using its “full faith and credit” to backstop Treasury bonds. Governments don’t pay bonds because they’re legally obliged to do so; they pay bonds because they promised to do so. That’s what “credit” means.

Rhode Island’s moral obligation bonds, then, are a bit like the bonds of a sovereign nation: they’re a measure of willingness to pay. And when it comes to public-sector borrowers, willingness to pay is all important. Yes, it would be legally possible for Rhode Island to default on its moral obligation bonds while staying current on its general obligation bonds. That legal possibility is exactly why the moral obligation bonds do trade at a higher yield. But the holders of the general obligation bonds aren’t happy with their lower yield just because they know that in the event of default they can go to court: none of them ever wants to do that. They fully expect Rhode Island to pay its bonded debts in full, just because it promised to do so.

There are implications to this line of reasoning, which Nesi explains quite clearly.

If that’s the case, a moral-obligation bond is effectively a general-obligation bond in all but name, with full repayment by Rhode Island taxpayers promised no matter what. If so, shouldn’t voters have to approve moral-obligation bonds at the ballot box as they already do with general-obligation bonds – and shouldn’t Rhode Island be paying the lower interest rate investors get on a lower-risk general-obligation bond?

The answer is that yes, moral obligation bonds are effectively general obligations bonds in all but name. The state has found a way of issuing bonds without having to get the approval of the legislature electorate, but they’re still obligations of the state, and the state doesn’t distinguish the two types of obligation. And yes, Rhode Island should be paying the lower interest rate rather than the higher interest rate. But that doesn’t mean that voters should have to approve moral obligation bonds: it could equally mean that voters should stop having to approve general obligation bonds.

That is what all governors really want: to have the legislature and voters stop interfering in their borrowing strategy. And that is the real reason why Chafee is staying current on his moral obligation bonds. He wants the world to see voter approval as an anachronism, and in an ideal world he would love it if moral obligation bonds had the same legal backing — and therefore the same lower yield — as general obligation bonds. That way he’d never need to issue a general obligation bond, or get voter approval for such a thing, ever again. It’s a very attractive vision — and it’s not one he’s going to give up just because Rhode Island is suffering a fiscal nightmare these days.

COMMENT

If The Democrats Didn’t Give ” Sweetheart Deals ” To Your Public Service Union.
Goon Employees To Get Reelected; You Would Have Plenty Of Money and The.
Taxpayer would have Some Spare Change in His Pockets! Democratic Hustler
Politicians + Corrupt Union Goons = BANKRUPTCY BABY! Time To Bring.
RICO Conspiracy Charges Against The Hustler Corrupt Democrats and the.
Criminal Unions!

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Counterparties: Neither a champion nor a frustration

May 1, 2013 22:49 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

One day after a downright cheery report on the housing market, Barack Obama has moved to replace the widely-criticized head of the FHFA. Mel Watt, a Democrat and longtime presence on the House Financial Services Committee, has been nominated to replace Ed DeMarco, who’s been acting head of the agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 2009.

This wasn’t entirely unexpected — the trial balloon for Watt’s candidacy has been afloat since March. (It was reportedly down to Watt and economist Mark Zandi.) As head of the agency, DeMarco has been pilloried by critics for opposing principal reductions for struggling homeowners, a method that’s long been championed by housing reformers, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve.

Just today, the Congressional Budget reported that a even small-scale principal forgiveness program could save the US government billions. As Felix wrote last July, DeMarco has seemed to oppose principal reductions on principle, arguing that slashing homeowners’ mortgage debt would be tantamount to a nation-wide breach of contract. (DeMarco has also suggested all this would end up costing taxpayers.)

Watt has publicly supported principal reductions, but his record isn’t terribly easy to categorize: As Nick Timiraos notes, while he pressed for support for low income borrowers, he also voted against pay cuts for Fannie and Freddie execs. Watt, who represents the Charlotte region, counts financial firms (hello, BofA) as some of his larger donors, but one consumer advocate says Watt has been “He is neither a champion nor a source of frustration”.

Matt Yglesias says everyone can find something to hate in Watt’s nomination. The housing industry, however, was supportive. Which doesn’t mean Watt will be confirmed. Edward Mills of FBR Capital Markets put it this way to Housing Wire:

Senate Republicans (who have the votes to block a nomination) will be extremely reluctant to support a candidate who has publicly backed principal reductions, has supported bankruptcy changes allowing for ‘cram-down’ on residential mortgages, and served on the House Financial Services Committee during the height of power of Fannie and Freddie (having accepted campaign contributions from both).

 Ryan McCarthy

On to today’s links:

Wonks
The studies behind austerity are weak. The study behind “uncertainty” is worse – Ezra Klein

TBTF
The S&P report on the Brown-Vitter bill “shows how backwards things have gotten on Wall Street” – Matt Taibbi
“It probably won’t get passed, but its underlying premise cannot be dislodged from the Washington conversation” – Jesse Eisinger

Alpha
There will be haircuts – Bill Gross
How to read a 10-k – The Financialist

The Fed
The Fed holds course, blames fiscal policy for holding back the economy – FOMC
How the Fed statement has changed – Phil Izzo

Welcome to Adulthood
Explaining the student debt bubble in 17 charts – Matt Phillips

Epistles
Brian Eno wrote a long letter to Nassim Taleb – Artangel

Cephalopods
Goldman’s names a new head to its Special Situations Group – Lauren Tara LaCapra

Startups
Why founders can end up with nothing when their company is sold – Steven Davidoff
This is what it looks like when you lose all of your startup money – Sam Biddle

Laziness Pays
Ordering groceries online is greener than driving to the grocery store – Brad Plumer
Fresh Direct’s grocery trucks are ruining our city streets – Streetsblog

Underground Economies
Inside the secret drug-smuggling tunnels of the Italian mafia – BBC

And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

COMMENT

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/1753 1726/fed.html
It seems a space got inserted somehow above.

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The systemic plight of labor

Felix Salmon
May 1, 2013 19:32 UTC

blodget.png

It’s May Day, and Henry Blodget is celebrating — if that’s the right word — with three charts, of which the most germane is the one above. It shows total US wages as a proportion of total US GDP — a number which continues to hit all-time lows. Blodget also puts up the converse chart — corporate profits as a percentage of GDP. That line, you won’t be surprised to hear, is hitting new all-time highs. He’s clear about how destructive these trends are:

Low employee wages are one reason the economy is so weak: Those “wages” are represent spending power for consumers. And consumer spending is “revenue” for other companies. So the short-term corporate profit obsession is actually starving the rest of the economy of revenue growth.

In other words, we’re in a vicious cycle, where low incomes create low demand which in turn means that there’s no appetite to hire workers, who in turn become discouraged and drop out of the labor force. Blodget’s third chart is one we’re all familiar with: the employment-to-population ratio, which fell off a cliff during the Great Recession and which will probably never recover. The current “recovery” is not actually a recovery for the bottom 99%, for real people who need to live on paychecks. And today is exactly the right day to point that out.

Conversely, today is exactly the wrong day to declare that these broad and inexorable trends are not really big top-down trends at all, and in fact merely reflect the inability of individual workers to “access learning, retrain, engage in commerce, seek or advertise a job, invent, invest and crowd source”. And yet that’s Tom Friedman’s column this May Day:

If you are self-motivated, wow, this world is tailored for you. The boundaries are all gone. But if you’re not self-motivated, this world will be a challenge because the walls, ceilings and floors that protected people are also disappearing. That is what I mean when I say “it is a 401(k) world.”

This manages to be both incomprehensible and incredibly offensive at the same time. I have no idea what Friedman thinks he’s talking about when he blathers on about disappearing protective floors; I can only hope that he isn’t making a super-tasteless reference to the recent disaster in Bangladesh. But it’s simply wrong that today’s world is “tailored” for anybody who happens to be “self-motivated”. Both the self and the motivation are components of labor, not capital, and as such they’re on the losing side of the global economy, not the winning side.

Friedman is a billionaire* (by marriage) who — like all billionaires these days — is convinced that he achieved his current prominent position by merit alone, rather than through luck and through the diligent application of cultural and financial capital. His paean to self-motivation recalls nothing so much as Margaret Thatcher’s “there is no such thing as society” quote: “parenting, teaching or leadership that ‘inspires’ individuals to act on their own will be the most valued of all,” he writes, bizarrely choosing to wrap his scare quotes around the word “inspires” rather than around the word “leadership”, where they belong.

True leadership, in a society where the workers are failing to be paid even half the fruits of their labor, would involve attempting to turn the red line in Blodget’s chart around, and to spread the nation’s prosperity among all its citizens. Rather than telling everybody that they’re “on their own” and that if they’re not a success then hey, they’re probably just not “self-motivated” enough.

The ultimate Friedman kick in the balls, however, doesn’t come from his lazily meritocratic priors. Rather, it comes from his overarching metaphor: the idea that if you have a 401(k) plan, then you’re somehow in charge of your own destiny. Friedman might be right that we’re living in a 401(k) world, but if he is then he’s right for the wrong reason. In Friedman’s mind, a 401(k) plan is an icon of self-determination: you get out what you put in. “Your specific contribution,” he writes, italics and all, “will define your specific benefits.”

In reality, however, a 401(k) plan is an icon of futility and the way in which the owners of capital extract rents from the owners of labor. Yves Smith is good on this, as is Matt Yglesias, although the real expert is Helaine Olen: the 401(k) is a way for both your government and your employer to disown you, and to leave your life savings to be raided by the financial-services industry and its plethora of hidden and invidious fees. The well-kept secret about old-fashioned pension funds is that, for the most part, they’re actually very good at generating decent returns for their beneficiaries. They tend to have extremely long time horizons, and are run by professionals who know what they’re doing and who have a fair amount of negotiating leverage when they deal with Wall Street. Savers are always strengthened by being united: disaggregating them and forcing them to take matters into their own hands is tantamount to feeding them directly to the Wall Street sharks.

Yglesias says that in a 401(k) world, “you’ve got to save a lot of money for retirement. More than you think.” This is true for five big reasons. Firstly, because wages are shrinking, any given level of savings will constitute a steadily-increasing proportion of any given worker’s GDP-adjusted paycheck. Secondly, because the employment-to-population ratio is shrinking, all workers need to save to support not only themselves in retirement, but also a number of dependents which is also growing over time. Thirdly, because 401(k) plans have lower returns than traditional pension plans, you need to save more in order to make up the difference. Fourthly, life happens: while the money in your 401(k) is nominally there for your retirement, in practice there’s a good chance that you’re going to tap it, at some point, to pay some kind of large and unexpected bill, whether that comes from unemployment or divorce or ill health. And finally, 401(k) plans don’t have the clever cross-subsidy that traditional pension plans have, where people who die early cross-subsidize people who live for a long time. With a pension plan, you get income when you need it — when you’re alive — and you don’t get money when you’re dead, and don’t need it any more. With a 401(k), by contrast, you have to save more than you really need, because there’s always a chance that you’re going to live to 102.

Add them all together, and to a first approximation you arrive at our current world, where pretty much no one relying on their 401(k) is actually saving enough for retirement. If you’re rich today, you’ll probably be fine when you retire. But if you’re someone who (in contrast to Tom Friedman) actually lives on your paycheck, then there’s almost no chance that your retirement savings will be enough, when the time comes. That’s not your fault: the reasons are deeply systemic. And as a result, the solutions cannot possibly be the kind of bottom-up schemes that Friedman is extolling. They have to come from the top: from real leaders, rather than jumped-up “thought leaders“.

*Or was, anyway. Maybe he isn’t any more.

COMMENT

What vjvalk wrote above is spot-on, and the comment above it gets to what a 401(k) society is really all about: INCREASING vulnerability and risk for those not in a great position to handle it (most of the working class in this country is a single missed paycheck away from financial disaster), and then allowing the overclass to blame the victims for a plight forced upon them by marketplace conditions created by said overclass.

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Counterparties: Apple’s superlative borrowing

Apr 30, 2013 22:35 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

Apple has a long list of superlatives to its name; this week, it added two more titles to the roster. It’s now the world’s biggest dividend payer, and also the company behind the largest investment-grade corporate-bond offering of all time. Today’s $17 billion in bonds, which attracted an order book of $50 billion, constitute Apple’s first debt issuance since 1994; the company ended up raising more money than even the Facebook IPO did.

All of the proceeds will end up in the pockets of shareholders: Apple plans to return $100 billion in total by the end of 2015, through stock buybacks and bigger dividends. That makes the offering the latest act in Apple’s recent history of legal tax avoidance. Over two-thirds of the company’s $145 billion cash pile is located overseas, and borrowing money, rather than repatriating overseas cash, will help Apple avoid a tax hit of up to $35 billion.

Apple issued six different bonds in total; the pricing was aggressive, with the new three-year bonds coming at a yield of 0.51%, just 20bp over Treasuries, and the 30-year bonds pricing 100bp over, at 3.88%. That’s in line with the triple-A yields commanded by Microsoft; Apple is rated one notch lower, at AA+.

Apple’s decision to tap the debt markets is emblematic of the continued surge in corporate bond sales this year (a “bond bacchanalia,” as Bloomberg put it). Companies are taking advantage of historically low interest rates — Matthew Yglesias points out that Apple is borrowing at a negative real yield — and an excess demand for safe assets. So far this year, they’ve borrowed $1.39 trillion: that’s almost $17 billion per day. – Peter Rudegeair

On to today’s links:

Housing
Home prices jump 9.3% over last year — and a whopping 23% in Phoenix – S&P/Case-Shiller

Yikes
How retirement fees cost you, a scrolling explainer – Frontline

Remuneration
JC Penney’s disastrous ex-CEO was paid 1,795 times the average department store worker – Bloomberg

New Normal
There’s an “epidemic of joblessness” among the world’s young – The Economist
Chart: The Insane levels of youth unemployment in Europe – Joe Weisenthal

EU Mess
Unemployment in Europe hit a record high in March – BBC
Eurozone unemployment in eight charts – Quartz

Wonks
The studies behind austerity are weak. The study behind “uncertainty” is worse – Ezra Klein
Americans don’t care as much about inequality as academics would like – Real Clear Markets
Does income inequality lead to political inequality? – Bruce Bartlett

Pivots
Google just launched its own payment card (in Kenya) – Quartz

Startups
Fred Wilson regrets how his company managed TheStreet.com – A VC

Comebacks
David Petraeus may be looking to rebuild his image by joining a private equity firm – Valleywag

So Hot Right Now
Chickpea farming is booming thanks to America’s growing appetite for hummus – WSJ

Alpha
Hedge funds are leading the push to privatize Fannie and Freddie – Bloomberg

And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

 

COMMENT

This is a great move by Apple. I think they are going to slowly but surely lose their marketing appeal and innovation edge. This is one way to not only keep people happy when they think about your company, but keep the mainstream media talking about you as well.

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Learning from breast cancer

Felix Salmon
Apr 30, 2013 15:12 UTC

Over the weekend one of my friends took to Facebook to ask a very good question. Her four-year-old daughter was going to run a lemonade stand, and my friend wanted suggestions “to incorporate an element of giving into the project”. Which charity should the daughter start supporting with her lemonade-stand profits? There were some very good answers, but there was also one woman who suggested, of all things, breast cancer research.

The Facebook post appeared at roughly the same time as Peggy Orenstein’s excellent 6,600-word NYT Magazine cover story on the problems with the breast cancer industry. Orenstein concludes:

It has been four decades since the former first lady Betty Ford went public with her breast-cancer diagnosis, shattering the stigma of the disease. It has been three decades since the founding of Komen. Two decades since the introduction of the pink ribbon. Yet all that well-meaning awareness has ultimately made women less conscious of the facts: obscuring the limits of screening, conflating risk with disease, compromising our decisions about health care, celebrating “cancer survivors” who may have never required treating. And ultimately, it has come at the expense of those whose lives are most at risk.

There are broader lessons to be learned from what we’re seeing in the world of breast cancer.

Firstly, Americans are bad at statistics. When it comes to breast cancer, they massively overestimate the probability that early diagnosis and treatment will lead to a cure, while they also massively underestimate the probability that an undetected cancer will turn out to be harmless. They’re bad at pathology: they’re easily convinced that something called ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a form of cancer, for instance, partly because the cancer industry insists on referring to it as “Stage Zero” cancer. They’re bad at biology: they think that it’s physics, basically, and that cancers are discrete, localized growths which start small and get bigger, and that the earlier you find and treat them, in large part by physically cutting them out of the body, the more likely you are to be cured.

But bigger than all of these is the fact that Americans are loving, compassionate people who really want to think that they can help, or make a difference. So they wear pink t-shirts, and ribbons, and football cleats; they spread the word in the name of “awareness”; they file up in their millions for mammograms and encourage everybody else to do so as well. (“If you haven’t had a mammogram, you need more than your breasts examined.”)

Orenstein does a good job of glossing the unpleasant consequences of such actions. Money which could be put to research into treating metastatic cancer — the kind of cancer which kills you — is instead put overwhelmingly into “awareness” campaigns and mammograms. There’s an epidemic of overtreatment, which carries massive physical, psychological, and economic costs. (And even attempting to measure such costs is considered almost treasonous in the cancer community.) More recently, the pink wave has spread to teenage girls, who are being educated, as Orenstein says, “to be aware of their breasts as precancerous organs”.

When a loved one dies of breast cancer, we all want to feel that there’s something we can do, some way we can help, some possibility that might prevent other people going through the same thing. The urge which causes people to donate to the Red Cross when there’s a big natural disaster? Is very similar to the urge which causes people to donate to the Susan G Komen Foundation when they have a nasty run-in with breast cancer.

But there are much better places to send your money than Komen. In a follow-up blog post, Orenstein points to Breast Cancer Action as one of them. It doesn’t have the feel-good aura that Komen does, and it’s unabashedly political. But it’s passionate, it’s reality-based, it doesn’t hide the people who are dying of breast cancer, and it doesn’t pretend that we have a way of stopping that from happening.

There are lots of reasons why people give to charity, and there are lots of reasons why some charities grow into Komen-sized behemoths while others stay small. But scientists and policymakers shouldn’t give especial weight to big charities just because they’re big, and physicians shouldn’t fall into line behind the cancer industry’s talking points unless those talking points have a solid scientific basis.

More generally, it behooves all of us to be a bit more critical of our intuitions. The Komen Foundation has become a spectacular success by playing to Americans’ fallacious intuitions, rather than trying to gently correct them. That’s depressing. Especially when so many lives are at stake.

COMMENT

Thanks for the important information, I am seeking this tropic for one many days. Treatment For cancer Guide is the Best Selling eBook on Cancer, breast cancer and chemotherapy. It documents all types of cancer and finds a cure for cancer

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Counterparties: Central banks vs austerity

Shane Ferro
Apr 29, 2013 22:58 UTC

Welcome to the Counterparties email. The sign-up page is here, it’s just a matter of checking a box if you’re already registered on the Reuters website. Send suggestions, story tips and complaints to Counterparties.Reuters@gmail.com.

Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will meet this week, and they’re expected to continue their current policy, which Bloomberg describes as “flooding the world with cash.” Bloomberg also cites an estimate from Barclays that central banks will buy $2.5 trillion in assets this year – more than twice the amount purchased in 2012. This week, the ECB may lower interest rates to 0.5%, although it’s far from a done deal, according to Reuters. The Fed, Jon Hilsenrath reports, is likely to keep its rates at their current level.

There are a number of voices concerned that fiscal policy (read: austerity) has made monetary policy less effective. Mike Konczal writes:

If you look at macroeconomic policy since last fall, there have been two big moves. The Federal Reserve has committed to much bolder action in adopting the Evans Rule and QE3. At the same time, the country has entered a period of fiscal austerity. Was the Fed action enough to offset the contraction? It’s still very early, and economists will probably debate this for a generation, but, especially after the stagnating GDP report yesterday, it looks as though fiscal policy is the winner.

Paul Krugman largely agrees, saying that, “as a practical matter the Fed — while it should be doing more — can’t make up for contractionary fiscal policy in the face of a depressed economy.”

There are still those who believe in the power of the central bank. Economist David Beckworth — who proposed back in 2011 that the Fed do exactly what it has been doing over the past six months — says Konczal and Krugman undersell how well monetary policy has worked. He points to nominal GDP, which has been steadily growing since austerity measures began in 2010 (though slower than before the crisis).

Nouriel Roubini has also chimed in, arguing that whatever the Fed does from here forward will likely be a problem. “The exit from the Fed’s QE and zero-interest-rate policies will be treacherous: Exiting too fast will crash the real economy, while exiting too slowly will first create a huge bubble and then crash the financial system,” he says. – Shane Ferro

On to today’s links:

Primary Sources
If there is a limit to money buying happiness, we haven’t reached it yet – Brookings

Facebook
Facebook is reportedly losing millions of users in major markets – Guardian

Inequities
America’s education system leaves no rich child behind – Sean Reardon

JPMorgan
JPMorgan’s co-COO — and a top Dimon ally — is leaving – DealBook
JPMorgan tops Goldman in investment banker pay – Bloomberg

EU Mess
Spain’s economic crisis is creating a permanent underclass – Matthew O’Brien

Possibly Useless Data
New study finds Google Trends may be a useful stock-picking tool – Nature
Back in 2010, the same researchers found Google Trends couldn’t predict stock market fluctuations – Science

Servicey
Charting the difference between critics and haters – Ann Friedman

Yikes
The battle over a dead NFL player’s brain – Frontline

Data Points
The racial wealth gap in the US is 50% worse than it was before the recession – NYT

Oxpeckers
The golden age of the blog has ended – The New Republic

EU Mess
Moody’s says Italy may still need a bailout – Reuters


And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

COMMENT

the “Nature” link goes to an Atlantic article?

Posted by dsquared | Report as abusive

The tragedy of Cooper Union

Felix Salmon
Apr 29, 2013 18:29 UTC

This time last year, I wrote about the pressure that public companies face to grow at all costs, and how destructive that pressure can be. Growth is, weirdly, inimical to longevity: if you want something to last for a very, very long time, then what you really want to create is something large — but not huge — and which doesn’t need to grow at all. The world’s oldest companies are nearly all family-owned affairs; they’re big enough to keep those families well-off, and they tend to produce goods or services for which there is a steady demand across the centuries. (Hotels, for instance, or wine.)

Peter Cooper understood this well. A wealthy man, he owned a lot of land in Manhattan — including the land underneath what is now the Chrysler Building — and he knew that land would, literally, produce healthy rents in perpetuity. A philanthropist, Cooper knew exactly what he wanted those rents to be spent on: he created the Cooper Union, a college with the defining characteristic that it would charge its students nothing. It was — and is — a noble cause. And in the early days, its trustees quite literally bought into that cause: they helped out with its endowment, and covered its deficits in years where it lost money.

Cooper understood that free education doesn’t really scale. If you’re charging, then extra students provide extra income which can pay for extra teachers and administrators and buildings. But if you’re giving education away for free, then it’s imperative that you operate strictly within your means. The only way to grow is if you persuade some new generations of wealthy benefactors to contribute their own money or land. But at Cooper Union, that hasn’t happened for many decades.

As a result, Cooper Union has always been an extremely special educational institution, the kind of place where a little went a very long way. The faculty was not well paid; the facilities were bare-bones. But the students were fantastic, because Cooper could pick the very best of the very best. And the college’s overriding social mission engendered a huge amount of loyalty and love for the institution, as well as being reflected deep in its curricula. Here’s Sangamithra Iyer, for instance:

When I graduated from Cooper, in 1999, I received a scholarship for a master’s program in geotechnical engineering at UC Berkeley. That summer, a major earthquake devastated Turkey. The first day of classes, the first thing one professor said was that Turkey smelled “like 40,000 dead people” and that “engineers who know that smell do their work a lot differently than those who don’t.” It was this sense of social responsibility that led me to pursue engineering, but also to leave it from time to time. A Cooper education freed me from debt, and allowed me the freedom to pursue purpose, not profit-driven endeavors. Its Union, for me, not only united the arts and the sciences but also was about making connections between the technical, the political, and the social.

While the Cooper Union ethos never left the students or the faculty, however, it did seem to desert a significant chunk of the Board of Trustees and the administration. Starting as long ago as the early 1970s, the board started selling off the land bequeathed by Cooper, not to invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets, but rather just to cover accumulated deficits. Cooper hated debt and deficits, but that hatred was not shared by later administrators, who would allow debts to accumulate — bad enough — until the only solution was to sell off the college’s patrimony, thereby reducing the resources available for future generations of students. If you visit Astor Place today, the intersection once dominated by the handsome Cooper Union building, the main thing you notice are two gleaming new glass-curtain-walled luxury buildings, one residential and one commercial, both constructed on land bought from Cooper Union.

Then, when you turn the corner and look at what hulks across the street from the main Cooper Union building, you can see where a huge amount of the money went: into a gratuitously glamorous and expensive New Academic Building, built at vast expense, with the aid of a $175 million mortgage which Cooper Union has no ability to repay.

The bland name for the building is a symptom of the fact that Cooper’s capital campaign, designed to raise the money for its construction, was a massive flop: no one gave remotely enough money to justify putting their name on the building. It’s also a symptom of the fact that no one on the board had any appetite for naming it after George Campbell, the main architect of the scheme which involved going massively into debt in order to construct this white elephant.

Campbell, pictured grinning widely in a now-notorious 2009 WSJ article, claimed that Cooper was a financial success story when in fact it was on the verge of collapse. He’s the single biggest individual villain in the Cooper story, and it’s a vicious irony that Cooper’s latest Form 990 shows him being paid $1,307,483 in 2011 — after he left Cooper’s presidency. (Cooper Union explains that the amount represents six years of “deferred compensation/retention payments”, but the timing couldn’t be worse.)

Campbell’s enablers and cheering squad were a small group of trustees, many of them Cooper-trained engineers gone Wall Street, who had so internalized the ethos of the financial world that it never occurred to them that they shouldn’t be constantly trying to get bigger and better and shinier. Campbell was paid $668,473 in his last year at Cooper — he was one of the highest-paid college presidents in the country, despite running a naturally small institution with serious space and money constraints. Board-member financiers enabled his dreams of growth and glory, hoping that some of the glamor from the newly-revitalized institution would reflect back on themselves. Naturally, when the whole project turned out to be a disaster, they scurried ignobly off the board as fast as they could.

The turnover on the board continues: the latest Form 990 alone shows six trustees — Marc Appleton, Robert Aquilina, Judith Rodin, Moshe Safdie, William Sandholm, and Philip Trahanas — resigning their posts over the course of the year. And if you look at the current list of trustees, you’ll see there have been other resignations since then: Douglas Hamilton, Vikas Kapoor, Audrey Flack, Stanley Lapidus, Giorgiana Slade, Cynthia Weiler, and Ronald Weiner. That’s 13 resignations in the course of just over two years; the entire board has only 22 members.

For an institution which was founded to exist in perpetuity, this kind of board turnover is decidedly worrying, especially since it was the board which decided and announced that Cooper Union will start charging tuition. If this board is just passing through, with precious little aggregate tenure or institutional memory, the legitimacy of that decision is surely greatly reduced.

What’s more, a weak board puts extra power in strong presidents — and both the current president, Jamshed Bharucha, and his predecessor, George Campbell, seem to have been able to persuade the board to implement anything they wanted to do. Bharucha is no fan of Campbell, for obvious reasons, but in many ways the two well-paid presidents are quite similar. I recently obtained a highly-unofficial transcript of the September 2012 board meeting*, where Bharucha was far from despondent or apologetic about the fact that Cooper’s board felt as though it was being forced to choose between charging tuition and closing down entirely. “Turning adversity into opportunity is really an opportunity that very few institutions have,” he said, before talking about something called “a vision process”. Later, he comes out with this:

I resonate very much to future-oriented thinking about higher education. I assure you that I will be guiding the institution to embrace these technologies and we’re not going to be trapped in the past. I think if we get over this hump there will be so much opportunity… I think we can lead… We don’t have a global brand. We’ve got to build that global brand.

Similarly, the trustees’ statement includes worrisome language like this:

Maintaining the highest standards of excellence means that we must constantly aim to improve through investment. We must engage in a continuous process of strengthening our academic programs, our faculty, and the clarity of our academic reputation. The institution will invest in our programs and our faculty to ensure that we always are, and are regarded as, equal to the best.

This is emphatically not Peter Cooper’s vision. The United States is full of higher-education institutions trying to carve out “a global brand” for themselves, often through “investment”. They generally have multi-billion-dollar endowments, global name recognition, and undergraduate tuition costs somewhere north of $40,000 a year. You could name a dozen of them off the top of your head, and Cooper Union would never be one of them. On the other hand, what you can’t do is name a dozen — or even two — institutions like Cooper, based on a social mission and free tuition and low-key excellence, where the pedagogy is not reliant on the provision of climbing walls, and where the health of the institution is not reliant on jet-setting deans who address the World Economic Forum on the subject of Global Leadership.

An investment is what you do when you spend money today, with an eye to reaping a profit in the future. Investments, by definition, are associated with future cashflow: if they’re not, then they’re not investments. Once Cooper Union starts “investing” in programs and faculty, it will have to charge for those programs and faculty in order for the investments to bear fruit. All of which is to say that this tuition charge is permanent: once it’s implemented, the chances of it being reversed are de minimis.

Bharucha, like Campbell before him, is intensely focused on improving Cooper Union’s name recognition. Cooper Union has historically not been very well known, even among New Yorkers: they often think it’s some kind of labor union, rather than an undergraduate college. That’s fine: the people who matter — the teenagers applying to the art school, the entire architectural profession — know exactly what Cooper Union is, and what it stands for. Not every non-profit organization needs its own awareness campaign — but of course if Cooper Union now has to start attracting richer kids capable of paying $20,000 a year in tuition, it’s going to have to start marketing itself more aggressively. Again, that’s not something it historically ever wanted or needed to do, and it’s not something Peter Cooper would be remotely happy about. His resources were meant to go towards education, not towards marketing and billing and “development”.

Another thing that Bharucha and Campbell had in common: both entered into talks about essentially selling Cooper Union to a deeper-pocketed institution. Campbell talked to NYU in the mid-2000s; Bharacha talked to Bard more recently. Obviously, none of those talks got very far; the NYU discussions ended when it decided to buy Polytechnic University instead, in 2008. In either case it’s hard to see how Cooper Union’s social mission and commitment to tuition-free education could have been preserved in perpetuity.

But the end result — what we ended up with — is arguably worse. Once you start charging tuition, you can’t go back: you build a huge amount of infrastructure for students who feel entitled to certain amenities, given how much they’re paying. And the college becomes a business with a P&L, having to chase revenues and persuade potential students that it’s a better financial deal than the various alternatives they have.

The result is that Cooper is certain to lose its much-cherished selectivity: according to the transcript, the September board meeting discussed a report from Maguire Associates which concluded, intuitively enough, that there’s simply no way to charge $20,000 a year and still accept less than 8% of applicants. That selectivity helps Cooper Union rank top among “regional colleges” in the influential US News ranking; both the selectivity and the ranking are sure to fall once tuition is introduced. (Cooper Union claims that it will have “need-blind” admissions, and that if you’re eligible for any kind of Pell Grant, you will get a full scholarship. But there’s no getting around the fact that it will need a certain number of paying students in order to make the math add up.)

Bharucha has also managed to ensure the undying opposition of Cooper Union’s most passionate students. Just this weekend, they painted the lobby of the architecture school black in protest, unaware that during the September board meeting, Bharucha complained about their “politics of destruction”. The relationship between Cooper Union’s administrators and its students has never been worse — and that’s not going to make it easy for Cooper to be able to paint itself as a prestigious institution worth paying $20,000 a year to attend.

In September, according to the transcript, Bharucha talked of the “enormous reputational risks” of charging tuition, and the “difficulty recruiting new students”. So it’s not like any of this was unexpected. “If it weren’t for all this noise”, Bharucha said in the meeting, he would be much more confident that charging tuition could work. But with it, he said, “it will be very difficult” to make a success of the new strategy.

The board has gone along with Bharucha’s strategy anyway, in the belief that all the alternatives are worse. In large part they were forced into their decision by the mortgage on the New Academic Building: you can’t shrink your way to sustainability when you owe MetLife $175 million, and you have to come up with the eight-figure debt-service payments somehow. Given that no one was about to write a $100 million check to Cooper Union, the only other place to find the necessary money was by charging. Even if doing so means destroying the very basis upon which Cooper Union was founded.

*A word about this transcript. Cooper Union spokesman Lloyd Kaplan told me that board meetings are not officially recorded or transcribed in any way, which is consistent with what my sources are telling me — which is that the meeting was recorded without the knowledge or consent of the board members.

The transcript is an important document, and I’m sure it will make its way onto the internet sooner or later. I’m not going to be the one to do that, however, because I have no evidence which can vouch for its authenticity, or demonstrate that the people named in the transcript actually said what it says they said. Conversations with two different sources have convinced me that the transcript is accurate; even then, however, I have only directly quoted Jamshed Bharucha, the president, rather than any unpaid board members.

Kaplan has told me that Cooper will have no comment on whether Bharucha actually said the things I’ve quoted him saying: he won’t confirm that he said them, but neither will he deny that he said them. My sources and I are sure that the quotes are accurate, but you should be aware that it’s never going to be possible to be 100% certain on that question.

COMMENT

Just looked this up after hearing the author accused of inaccuracies on Democracy Now, and yet that “Trustee” did not give any examples, good important story!

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