Felix Salmon

Be happy that Stan Fischer worked at Citi

Last week, Justin Fox had a great post entitled “How Economics PhDs Took Over the Federal Reserve”. The first Fed chairman of the modern era was a banker, Marriner Eccles; he was succeeded by Thomas McCabe, who had a bachelor’s degree in economics but whose main qualification was having been the CEO of Scott Paper. Then William McChesney Martin moved over to the Fed from Treasury; he was a former stockbroker and New York Stock Exchange president, and ushered in a new era:

Those noisy payrolls figures

Bf4WME_CQAANHFA.jpg_large.jpg

The chart of the day comes from Betsey Stevenson, and helps to show just how noisy the payrolls data really are. The big headline figures of the day, 113,000 is ostensibly the increase that we saw, in January, in the number of people on American payrolls. It’s a disappointing number, while a print of say 200,000 would have been decidedly encouraging.

Why bitcoin won’t disrupt digital transactions

I like to keep my feet warm, and so I’m very glad that in five years’ time, Ben Horowitz, the co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, is going to be sending me a pair of luxurious alpaca socks. The bet, which originated on RapGenius, is now a reality, thanks to Planet Money. And while NPR has written the broadcast up as a story, it falls to RapGenius, again, to annotate it. And it’s in the RapGenius annotations where things start getting interesting.

Puerto Rico needs to prepare for its default

Ryan McCarthy has a good round-up of Puerto Rico’s debt problems, which have now been exacerbated by S&P downgrading the island’s bonds to junk status. (Moody’s and Fitch are certain to do so as well, in short order.) For a good one-stop overview of most of the big issues, I can recommend Nuveen Asset Management’s note, which includes this chart:

The realistic and the optimal ways to overhaul energy taxes

Back in December, Max Baucus, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, came out with a pretty bold proposal to simplify America’s energy taxes, and to focus them on a simple goal: that the US should emit less carbon. That should be a pretty easy thing to do, in theory: you just raise taxes on the more carbon-intensive energy sources, while not raising them, or even cutting them, on sustainable energy sources. Except that’s not the way the US tax code works. America, it turns out, doesn’t really tax energy at all: instead, it subsidizes energy. And the amounts of money involved are very large:

Why the Post Office needs to compete with banks

Back in 2011, I said that “the only way to save the Post Office will be to allow it to move into financial services”, seeing as how “banks in the US are mistrusted and disliked and many people would love to be able to just bank at the Post Office instead”.

Viral math

This chart, from Newswhip via Derek Thompson, has been doing the rounds, and causing a bit of debate:

Who’s to blame for the emerging-market crisis?

Paul Krugman and Dani Rodrik are out with dueling op-eds (the latter written with Arvind Subramanian) on the subject of the latest bout of financial-market craziness in places like Argentina and Turkey. Both men have been following emerging-market crises for decades; both indeed, are world-class experts on such episodes. What’s more, both economists have a broadly left-liberal worldview: there’s no deep ideological or philosophical rift here. And yet the two seem diametrically opposed.

When disruption meets regulation