Recession? Place your bets

September 5, 2008

Surprisingly dismal data on U.S. employment for August has heightened fears of a full-blown recession. To date, the economy has not met the popular definition of recession, two back-to-back quarters of declining GDP. Whether it will meet a more-nuanced definition employed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the accepted recession arbiter, remains to be seen. What do you think? Place your bet via the Reuters page on Hubdub.com, a news prediction game. The odds shown on the live graph below fluctuate to reflect bets by the Hubdub community. You can let us know what you think of this feature in the comments below.

3 comments

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

I do not have any doubt about the US economy to be in recession,the 3.9 % annualized growth in the second quarter was mainly on account of strong exports from US in view of weaker dollar against Euro and leading Asian currencies making Us exports highly competitive in European and Asian markets.Since 15th July,2008 the dollar has appreciated by over 12%in as compared to Euro making Us exports quite non-competitive in the European markets especially in the wake of ongoing recession in the European countries.I do not rule out the possibility of negative growth as compared to the growth in the second quarter in US economy during the third quarter ending 30th Sept 2008,as the American economy is most likely to get crippled both on the domestic as well as the overseas turf.

Mahesh Natani,
Financial consultant,
Indore,India.
Date:10.9.08

Posted by Mahesh Natani | Report as abusive

Current Crisis – Cure or Croak

The real economic situation is ever in a state of flux and the ready made solutions in the classical or neoclassical mould evade a lasting solution to the current crisis. Over the years the very concept of ‘economy’ has undergone a sea change. The models that address to the national economies of yester years have become redundant and they don’t go beyond a transitory solution suppressing the real economic forces, side tracking the long term perspectives. The long lasting solution needs a fresh debate among the political economists to come out with an integrated co-operative model, keeping in mind the linkages of the so called developed and the developing economies, in which the monetary and the fiscal policies play a subservient role.

Simon Kuznets was a far sighted development economist who could foresee more than half a century ago that ‘poverty anywhere is a threat to development everywhere’. The ‘national economy’ is a misnomer today and an attempt to resolve the existing depression at the national levels will always belie the expectations, specially of the developed countries, and they are likely to slip from devil to the deep sea.

I look at the present crisis as a consequence of too much monetarism of the developed countries for maintaining their growth rates overlooking the potential development of South Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. This might lead to relentless speculative tendencies, playing down the primary role of money and ultimate crash down of giant economies of the world creating a worldwide economic chaos. The retrieval from it might take a century.

Posted by Dr. C. P. Sharma | Report as abusive

I reiterate that Us economy has entered into recession and its entering into depression is not ruled out keeping in view the continuous state of unclogged credit market,deteriorating job market and collapsing corporate profits.The US economy is expected to contract by more than 5% in the fourth quarter ending 31st Dec 2008.

Mahesh Natani,
Financial consultant,
Indore,India.
Date : 16.12.08

Posted by Mahesh Natani | Report as abusive