U.S. consumers remain the least inclined to buy a house than they’ve been in nearly 14 years, according to the latest data from the Conference Board. But boy, do they want a new TV!

In the current cycle, home-buying intentions peaked in March 2004, when 4.2 percent of respondents to the Conference Board’s monthly consumer survey said they planned to purchase a house within six months. The all-time peak, 5.2 percent, was reached in March 1999 during the stock market’s dotcom heyday. The latest two readings — 2.5 percent in both December and January — were the lowest since June 1994, not a promising indicator for a recovery in the beleaguered U.S. housing market.

On the other hand, the picture couldn’t be brighter for TV sales. Plans to get a new TV are near a record high, with 9.7 percent of January’s survey respondents saying they’ll buy a set within the next six months. That is the highest since a 10.4 percent reading last June and is the third-highest in the past 21 years. In fact, the trend in TV-buying intentions, as measured by the 12-month moving average of affirmative responses, rose to the highest in January since the Conference Board began tracking the data in 1978.

Stocks around the world have had rough sledding in the first weeks of 2008 thanks to worries that the subprime mortgage crisis will trigger a U.S. recession and slow global economic growth.

Through Monday, the year-to-date tally of worldwide stock market losses exceeded $3.1 trillion, as measured by MSCI’s world index. More than a third of that is attributable to the U.S. market alone, with the Standard & Poor’s 1500 index losing more than $1.1 trillion so far this year.

As large as that seems, global equity values still exceed $29 trillion, according to MSCI, and stocks have cut their losses by about a quarter since the Fed’s emergency interest rate cut. Global equity losses briefly exceeded $4.1 trillion at the depth of the sell off last Tuesday.

US Treasuries have outperformed corporates thanks to fears of a US recession and spreading fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. Some money managers are looking for this trend to reverse soon as Treasuries look pricey and corporates appear overly beaten down.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s measure of manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region plunged in January to a level that has typically signaled a U.S. recession.

The index’s reading in January of a negative 20.9 was the lowest since October 2001, near the end of the last recession. As the chart shows, readings of negative 20 (the horizontal red line) or below have either just preceded or coincided with a recession (shown by the gray bands) in all but one instance dating back to 1968. The one exception occurred in mid-1995, near the middle of the 1991 to 2001 economic expansion.

Last year was a banner year for U.S. inflation-protection bonds thanks in no small part to the heftiest annual increase in consumer prices in 17 years. TIPs turned in a double-digit gain last year, their best showing in five years and topping Treasuries for the first time since 2004.

Retail sales growth in 2007 was the slowest in five years, but that hasn’t kept inflation in check, at least at the wholesale level: Producer prices for all of 2007 rose at their fastest rate in more than 25 years.

Chart shows retail sales last year rose at their slowest rate in five years (since 2002). Sales at U.S. retailers fell 0.4 percent in December and were less vigorous in November than previously thought, according to a Commerce Department release on Jan. 15.

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday became the latest major U.S. brokerage to predict a recession in 2008, joining fellow heavyweights Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley in the call for an economic contraction. Among the many factors these market pros watch for among signs of a pending slowdown is the employment scene.

While last week’s government payrolls report shows U.S. economy still adding new workers, that growth rate slowed dramatically in December, and the unemployment rate rose to 5 percent, the highest since 2005. “The ‘true’ pace of employment growth is now probably about zero, if not below,” says Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius.

Well before last week’s data, though, other employment indicators suggested the economy had taken a turn for the worse.

As the blue line shows on the chart, the length of time unemployed Americans are spending without work appears to have bottomed in December 2006 and has been lengthening ever since. Meanwhile, the brown line shows number of Americans on unemployment benefits hit a two-year high late last month. The chart shows that when these two indicators assume such a consistent upward trajectory, recession (shown by the gray bands) is near at hand.

Oil’s already over $90 a barrel and some investors are convinced it could top $100 by year end.

As the charts show, the historical correlation between crude oil and gasoline prices appears poised to reassert itself, suggesting that pump prices will soon be climbing back to well over $3 a gallon from the latest national average over $2.82.

That’s probably not good news for retailers and their investors. Retail shares have struggled recently with one of the big headwinds being the strain placed by high energy prices on consumers’ wallets.

Friday’s monthly payrolls report from the Labor Department showed not only that hiring rebounded in September, but also that the U.S. employment scene in August was not nearly as dire as was originally reported.

About 110,000 workers were added to payrolls during September, just above the median forecast of 100,000 estimated by economists in a Reuters poll.

The big surprise, however, was the revision to August’s report, which had initially showed a net loss of 4,000 jobs, a figure that contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates last month. That figure, first reported four weeks ago, on Friday was revised upward to a net gain of 89,000 jobs in August.

Still, all is not well in the U.S. job market, as the chart shows. Even with the gain last month and the positive revision to the August numbers, September was the fourth straight month of below-trend jobs growth.

In the chart, the green line shows the month-to-month change in U.S. nonfarm employment. The black line depicts that data over a 12-month moving average, which clearly shows the hiring trend peaked in early 2006 and has been on the decline since.