The online prediction market Intrade sees a 12 percent chance that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4.
Intrade accepts trades on the probability of events such as whether there will be a recession, whether the U.S. Congress will lift the ban on offshore drilling or whether the United States or Israel will launch a military strike on Iran. It opened the Palin betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor whom Sen. John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her 17-year-old daughter was pregnant.
The market opened at 3 percent that she would have to withdraw as McCain’s running mate and climbed as high as 18 percent before settling down to 12 percent on 632 trades as of noon EDT. The markets are priced from zero to 100, with zero meaning investors see no chance an event will happen and 100 meaning it already has happened.
Separately on Hubdub.com , which offers virtual cash in exchange for correct predictions, various wagers were made , from the chance of Palin stepping down as the VP nominee (currently a 19 percent chance) to whether her biography video would mention her NRA membership (80 percent).
What do you think the chances are that Palin will withdraw? Put your prediction — from 0 percent to 100 percent — in comments. Read the full Reuters story.
(Reporting by Daniel Trotta)
Trackback
72 comments so far
Previous | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Next
Palin did extort the oil companies, and then give a portion of that money to every Alaskan citizen in the form of a check. This was redistribution of wealth of a certain kind, more like a ticket to buy new consumer goods.
It would have been better to use the proceeds to fund new industry or education for the state.
- Posted by Corporate EthicsQUESTION:
IS PALIN QUALIFIED COMPARED TO OBAMA ?
ANSWER:
- Posted by Howardhttp://townhall.com/blog/g/cba8713c-ef73 -4ebc-aa5e-bc53e6596e2a&comments=true
minus zero - she epitomises the sentimentality in which so many americans love to indulge…
- Posted by William Stonekingdoubtful I can add anything to this conversation, but:
Palin’s ‘investigtion’ in Alaska is hardly worth mentioning. The details of the situation are well documented, she is cooperating fully, and only the media spin-machine can make it a big deal by obfuscation and outright lies.
Her daughter’s situation is irrelevant to, well, anything, except as evidence of her pro-life stance influencing her children.
What else is there to say negatively about her that is not doubly true for Obama?
0% chance of withdrawl - sheesh, like it even has to be mentioned?
- Posted by Da6dThis is a remarkably silly article. But it is apropos of American politics and elections. The fact is, most Americans are simply too superficial to effectively cast their votes. Instead, they are seduced by sound bites — “time for a change” and such drivel — instead of demanding an indepth discussion of the important issues. They often vote for a candiate based upon the candidate’s status (over which the candidate has no control), such as whether the candidate is a man or a woman, whether he is Caucasion or African American. They vote for candidates who are attractive to them. And, instead of informing themselves on issues, they read silly articles like this one.
Palin will probably not step aside, and here’s why: She is attractive and will make good sound bites. If she fails, it is because she informs the American public too much about her views, and the public becomes bored.
Americans have the politicians they deserve. Until American voters demand more than mud-slinging, status, and sound bites, they are swinging at branches rather than chopping at roots.
Will America someday be proof that a republic is not a viable form of government. I suspect it will. And Americans will have their own stupidity, laziness and complacency to blame.
- Posted by RLMDear Evelyn, Abe and Private, I will tell you I am pro-choice and firmly disagree with Gov. Palin on that issue. I do not believe the government should place itself in the position to make personal/moral based decisions for anyone. People cannot grow if others are thinking for you. However, there is much more here. Gov Palin also believes in teaching Creationism in schools. I do agree with that and I am not evangelical. You cannot know if the theory of evolution is correct unless you can compare it against something other than itself. Is life from primordial mud or on the backs of falling crystals is not any more sane than the biblical recollection?
The point is, checks and balance. I have no fear that Democrats can’t save pro-choice. Gov Palin’s tenacity in these areas I hope will create consessions. Encouraging opinion and study to something greater than self is a benefit. She may not have 30 years experience in government, but neither do most people who vote and still speak like they know more. They probably know more football than NFL coaches too. She will be the perspective that many people feel, and will be in the same room to express those concerns to policy makers.
- Posted by PaulNot a good choice— seems like-ooh! the democrats ran a woman so we should too! –very denigrating to females in general. Looks like a trophy Veep.
- Posted by G100%, she needs to go. What a dufus. All he needed to do was pick Liebermann or Romney.
- Posted by Loyal RepublicanI don’t think she will withdraw as that would sink McCain. But I agree there is a 100% chance she will be a terrible vp. I love AD’s comment above, “I have not heard her say one word on tv, and she’s got my vote.” That, in a nutshell is the problem with our country. How can people vote for someone they know nothing about. Bush had Palin’s qualifications: evangelical, pro-life, anti-gay, no knowledge of foreign policy. Look how well that turned out. Maybe we should decide who should lead our country based upon some other more sensible criteria.
- Posted by AbeI fear that John McCain is using this woman just to try a last straw effort at getting himself a jolt upwards in the polls. Once elected President of the United States McCain must figure that Palin will be a puppet that he can manipulate for his own purposes as she will be so eternally grateful for his gesture of picking her out of nowhere to be his Vice President. I cannot see her as having any viable political stature in the job.
- Posted by Evelyn H0% chance of her withdrawl and a “100% chance that she would be a terrible vice president”. (Posted by Sasquatch)
- Posted by Robert ArltAnd one more comment. There are many on this site that simply write like they think- mindlessly. If you truly want to make a difference, and be taken seriously, then use some intelligent thought when making comments or observations. Some of these comments seem to come straight from the mother of all intellectual voids.
- Posted by PirateVoice