If President Barack Obama opts to increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan next week, the decision could be underscored by something a bit unusual for his policies: growing U.S. public support. 
    
Polling data have shown for a while now that most Americans don’t favor many of Obama’s policy positions, despite his enduring personal popularity.
    
A USA Today/Gallup poll depicts Obama battling headwinds on a number of fronts: Americans oppose the closing of Gitmo by more than a 2-to-1 margin; those against healthcare reform edge out those in favor by 5 percentage points; and most don’t want accused Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed tried in civilian court in New York City.
    
Afghanistan is no cakewalk, either. Public opinion is divided over the question of more troops and 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the war up to now — a reversal of his 56 percent approval rating four months ago.
    
But the polling data, compiled Nov. 20-22, might also suggest a silver lining for the president as he nears an announcement that could send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
    
Less than half of Americans — 47 percent — favor a troop increase. But that’s up from 42 percent in a Nov. 5-8 survey.
    
Plus, the opposition is down: 39 percent of Americans now want the president to reduce the U.S. military footprint, vs. 44 percent earlier.
    
What hasn’t changed for Obama is that Republicans, not fellow Democrats, are his best buddies when it comes to increasing troops. Seventy-two percent of Republicans back a bigger U.S. force in Afghanistan, while 57 percent of Democrats say it’s time to start pulling out.     

That could be important for Obama’s agenda in Congress as the 2010 election approaches and Democratic incumbents in tight races consider how they might fare with Democratic voters.

The USA Today/Gallup findings are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 adults. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Photo credits: Reuters/Jason Reed (Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates); Reuters/Mathieu Belanger (U.S. soldier departs for Afghanistan); Reuters/Lucas Jackson (NYC crowd watches Obama)

A Republican-controlled Congress could be a real possibility for the second half of President Barack Obama’s four-year term, according to the latest Gallup poll.

The poll of 894 registered voters suggests Republicans would win the U.S. House of Representatives by 48 percent to 44 percent if the 2010 congressional election were held today.

The Republican lead is well within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. But the results indicate that Republicans might have some momentum after gaining steadily on Democrats since July.

People who participated in the survey were asked only about their local House districts, so the results mean little for that other congressional chamber, the U.S. Senate.

It’s way too early to gauge the outcome of a congressional election that won’t be held until November 2010. The primaries that choose the parties’ respective candidates don’t even begin until early next year. And as Gallup points out, the poll measures only voter preference, not likely voter turnout. 

But a revival of Republican popularity could spell trouble for Obama, given that the GOP appeared to gain ground as the president’s main domestic priorities — healthcare and climate change reforms — gained public attention.  Meanwhile, Democrats slipped 6 percentage points overall and plunged 12 points among independent voters. 

Republicans would be in a very strong position to shut down much of Obama’s agenda if they won control of the House for 2011 and 2012. A Republican House would also pose a greater challenge for a 2012 Obama reelection campaign.

Tangible risks for Obama’s agenda could also lie closer at hand, if the whiff of electoral defeat encouraged enough Democrats today to avoid White House initiatives that might have political consequences tomorrow.

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Photo Credits: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst (U.S. Capitol); Reuters/Jason Reed (House Republican leader John Boehner); Reuters/Jim Young (Obama)

You’ve no doubt heard the old saying about money and Washington: a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money. That seems to be the case for fixing U.S. healthcare.

President Barack Obama got some good news from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office yesterday, which estimated that a healthcare plan by the Senate Finance Committee would cost $829 billion. CBO said this plan would cut the budget deficit by $81 billion over 10 years.

There was good news this morning too, as the Labor Department reported new unemployment claims at a nine-month low.

These moves are so recent they haven’t shown up in polls tracking whether Americans approve of how Obama is doing his job. The president’s job approval rating has been wiggling around 52 percent for the last three weeks, according to an average of poll results by RealClearPolitics.com. Disapproval ratings for the same period floated around 42 percent.

He’s still doing far better than Congress as a whole, which generally gets dismal poll ratings. It certainly is now, with the RealClearPolitics average approval rating at 25.8 percent, with a 66.5 disapproval rating.

Which brings up today’s question: is this kind of minute attention to polls worthwhile? Does it impede the business of government? Is it interesting to anybody outside the Washington Beltway? Let us know.

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Photo credit: REUTERS/Choi Bu-Seok (Hundred dollar bills a headquarters of Korea Exchange Bank, October 8, 2009)

Some things never change. Take, for instance, the fact that a president does not make decisions based upon the polls.

Polling seems to be a flourishing business. Pollsters survey us on just about anything. Click on the Pew Research Center’s website  and you’ll find polls on such issues as our views on torture and warrantless wiretapping, or President Barack Obama’s skills as a communicator.

George W. Bush said over and over again he did not make decisions based on polls. So we wanted to point out that Obama borrowed some of Bush’s phraseology in talking about polls with interviewer Jim Lehrer of PBS’ “Newshour.”

He was talking about his decision to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq over 18 months while leaving up to 50,000 troops there with all to be out by the end of 2011.

Roll the videotape:

MR. LEHRER: You’re not the least bit uneasy over the fact as John McCain and John Boehner, the Republican leader of the House, have praised your plan while the Democrats are criticizing it?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, I don’t — I don’t make these decisions based on polls or popularity. I make the decisions based on what I think is best. This is consistent with what I said during the campaign. The fact — if anything I think people should be interested in the fact that there’s been a movement in the direction of what I thought was going to be the right plan in the first place.

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Photo Credit: Reuters/Jim Young (Obama at Camp Lejeune talking to Marines about Iraq plans)

WASHINGTON - A slew of new state polls released on Wednesday showed some shift in momentum toward Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama and away from Republican rival John McCain.

CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. released polls for five battleground states — Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia — that showed Obama ahead among likely voters in all of them, though still within the margin of error in four.

Obama held a 51 percent to 47 percent lead in both Florida and Nevada, a 53 percent to 44 percent lead in Virginia, a 54 percent to 43 percent advantage in Minnesota and a narrow 49 percent to 48 percent edge in Missouri.

CNN said its previous surveys of those states had showed McCain was up in Nevada, Virginia and Missouri. And previously in Florida the two were tied and in Minnesota Obama was up two points.

Meanwhile, new polls by Quinnipiac University in three key states also showed a small uptick in support for Obama after last week’s presidential debate.

In Florida, Obama’s lead grew to 51 percent to 43 percent, from 49 percent to 43 percent before the debate.

In Ohio, Obama was up 50 percent to 42 percent, versus 49 percent to 42 percent prior to the debate. Remember, no Republican has won the White House without the state.

And finally in Pennsylvania, where Obama has struggled a bit, he widened his lead to 54 percent to 39 percent from before the debate when he was up 49 percent to 43 percent. 

A McCain spokeswoman, when asked about Obama’s jump in a handful of polls, stressed that the Arizona senator was an underdog in the race and that it was a difficult year for Republicans.

(additional reporting by Jeff Mason)

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- Photo credits: Reuters/Brian Snyder (McCain at the Harry S. Truman presidential library); Jason Reed (Obama at a rally in La Crosse, Wisc.)