Funds Hub

Money managers under the microscope

from Global Investing:

And the winner is — frontier market bonds

Photo

Global Investing has commented before on how strongly the world's riskiest bonds -- from the so-called frontier markets such as Mongolia, Nigeria and Guatemala -- have performed.  NEXGEM, the frontier component of the bond index family run by JP Morgan, is on track to outperform all other fixed income classes this year with returns of over 20 percent., the bank tells clients in a note today. Just to compare, broader emerging dollar bonds on the EMBI Global index have returned some 16 percent year-to-date while local currency emerging debt is up 13 percent.

That appetite for the sector is strong was proven by a September Eurobond from Zambia that was 15 times subscribed. Demand shows no sign of flagging despite a default in frontier peer Belize and shenanigans over the payment of Ivory Coast's missed coupons from last year. Reasons are easy to find. First, the yield. The average yield on the NEXGEM is roughly 6.5 percent compared with  just under 5 percent on the EMBIG.

Second, this is where a lot of issuance is happening as big emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico, once prolific dollar bond issuers, sell less and less on external markets in favour of domestic debt.  Frontier markets are filling the gap. JPM says Angola, Guatemala, Mongolia and Zambia joined the NEXGEM in 2012 as they made their debut on global capital markets. Bolivia is also set for inclusion soon, taking the number of NEXGEM members to 23 by end-2012.

 

NEXGEM's market value also jumped in this period by 36 percent to $33.3 billion. It now represents 5.9 percent of the EMBI Global, up from 5.3 percent a year back, JP says.

from Global Investing:

Emerging corporate debt tips the scales

Photo

Time was when investing in emerging markets meant buying dollar bonds issued by developing countries' governments.

How old fashioned. These days it's more about emerging corporate bonds, if the emerging market gurus at JP Morgan are to be believed. According to them, the stock of debt from emerging market companies now exceeds that of dollar bonds issued by emerging governments for the first time ever.

from Global Investing:

Emerging corporate debt tips the scales

Photo

Time was when investing in emerging markets meant buying dollar bonds issued by developing countries' governments.

How old fashioned. These days it's more about emerging corporate bonds, if the emerging market gurus at JP Morgan are to be believed. According to them, the stock of debt from emerging market companies now exceeds that of dollar bonds issued by emerging governments for the first time ever.

from Global Investing:

Emerging markets facing current account pain

Photo

Emerging markets may yet pay dearly for the sins of their richer cousins. While recent financial crises have been rooted in the United States and euro zone, analysts at Credit Agricole are questioning whether a full-fledged emerging markets crisis could be on the horizon, the first since the series of crashes from Argentina to Turkey over a decade ago. The concern stems from the worsening balance of payments picture across the developing world and the need to plug big  funding shortfalls.

The above chart from Credit Agricole shows that as recently as 2006, the 34 big emerging economies ran a cumulative current account surplus of 5.2 percent of GDP. By end-2011 that had dwindled to 1.7 percent of GDP. More worrying yet is the position of "deficit" economies. The current account gap here has widened to 4 percent of GDP, more than double 2006 levels and the biggest since the 1980s. The difficulties are unlikely to disappear this year, Credit Agricole says,  predicting India, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Vietnam, Poland and Romania to run current account deficits of over 4 percent this year.

Hurry boy, it’s waiting there for you!

Photo

Sick of hearing about China and Brazil? Just a little bit worried about all the money flooding into emerging market funds this year? Sceptical that South Korea can even be classed as an emerging market anymore? Why not try Africa?

If there was one thing that speakers at this week’s CFA Institute European Investment Conference all agreed on it was that Africa could be the next big thing for the daring investor.

Quicker to get Out of Africa

With liquid hedge fund strategies so much in demand, Insparo Asset Management is shortening the redemption terms on its $165 mln Africa & Middle East fund because it ended up buying assets that were more liquid than it had originally expected.

Investors will be able to withdraw up to 25 percent of their cash per quarter, meaning they can fully exit the fund in a year should they wish — surely a welcome move, given it previously took two years.

from MacroScope:

Frontier sovereign wealth funds

Photo

Macroscope has discussed the growth of sovereign wealth funds many times (see here or here). Just to recap, the global state-owned SWF industry is set to more than double in the next 10 years from the current $3 trillion, according to estimates from Deutsche Bank.

John Green, global head of business development at Anglo-African bank Investec, argues that Africa will play a key role in the expansion of SWFs in years to come.

from Global Investing:

Can domestic demand boost African markets? Duet’s Salami talks to Reuters Television

Direct and indirect foreign investors fled from Africa as the credit crisis sparked a flight to safety, or at least familiarity, but Ayo Salami, manager of the Duet Victoire Africa Index fund believes domestic demand can step in to underpin growth.

  •