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Money managers under the microscope

from Reuters Money:

Coming soon: the loud thud of a gold bust

VIETNAMSome time in the future the price of gold will crash and it won't have a fairy-tale ending for the millions of investors who piled on in recent months.

If I could tell you when gold was going to bust, I'd likely be wrong or bigger than Warren Buffett, so I won't even try. Just be incredibly cautious now. There are too many signs that gold is frothier than a Starbucks cappuccino.

It's not that I don't nod in agreement when gold bugs rant about why their metal holds a special value now. The dollar is in deep trouble as the U.S. sinks deeper into debt. Will Portugal and Spain be the next Ireland on the bailout boulevard? Ben Bernanke may not be able to put a dent in U.S. unemployment or the intractable housing crisis.

And yes, I also know the argument on how gold is nowhere near its inflation-adjusted equivalent of its high in January, 1980. According to the Leuthold Group, gold will have to hit $2,400 an ounce to match the $850 high mark it hit in 1980 in real terms. That doesn't mean it will, of course.

Morning line-up

News and views on the hedge fund sector from Reuters and elsewhere:

tea.jpgEx-Centaurus HK chief starts new fund - Bloomberg

Reprieve for Cohen? – Reuters

Hedgies’ impact on energy trading – Commodities Now

Investors pour in billions – Reuters

Citi taps the UCITS rush – FINAlternatives

from MacroScope:

Frontier sovereign wealth funds

Macroscope has discussed the growth of sovereign wealth funds many times (see here or here). Just to recap, the global state-owned SWF industry is set to more than double in the next 10 years from the current $3 trillion, according to estimates from Deutsche Bank.

John Green, global head of business development at Anglo-African bank Investec, argues that Africa will play a key role in the expansion of SWFs in years to come.

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