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from Global Investing:

Clearing a way to Russian bonds

Russian debt finally became Euroclearable today.

What that means is foreign investors buying Russian domestic rouble bonds will be able to process them through Belgian clearing house Euroclear, which transfers securities from the seller's securities account to the securities account of the buyer, while transferring cash from the account of the buyer to the account of the seller. Euroclear's links with correspondent banks in more than 40 countries means buying Russian bonds suddenly becomes easier.And safer too in theory because the title to the security receives asset protection under Belgian law. That should bring a massive torrent of cash into the OFZs, as Russian rouble government bonds are known.

In a wide-ranging note entitled "License to Clear" sent yesterday, Barclays reckons previous predictions of some $20 billion in inflows from overseas to OFZ could be understated -- it now estimates that $25 to $40 billion could flow into Russian OFZs during 2013-2o14. Around $9 billion already came last year ahead of the actual move, Barclays analysts say, but more conservative asset managers will have waited for the Euroclear signal before actually committing cash.

Foreigners'  increased interest will have several consequences.  Their share of Russian local bond markets, currently only 14 percent, should go up. The inflows are also likely to significantly drive down yields, cutting borrowing costs for the sovereign, and ultimately corporates. Already, falling OFZ yields have been driving local bank investment out of that market and into corporate bonds (Barclays estimates their share of the OFZ market has dropped more than 15 percentage points since early-2011).  And the increased foreign inflows should act as a catalyst for rouble appreciation.

Each of these points in a bit more detail:

a) Foreigners' share of the Russian bond market is among the lowest of major emerging markets.  Compare that to Hungary, where non-residents own over 40 percent, or South Africa and Mexico, where foreigners' share of local paper is over 30 percent.

from Global Investing:

Equities — an ‘even years’ curse?

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Are global equity markets under an 'Even Years Curse' that sees them underperform bonds in even-numbered years but beat fixed-income returns in odd-numbered ones? After some number-crunching, Fidelity International's' director of asset allocation Trevor Greetham suspects so.

"It's not just hocus-pocus but to do with global inventory levels," he explained at a forum organised by the London-based investment house.

The unforgivable sin?

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The exact nature of the so-called ‘unforgiveable sin’ in Mark 3:29 has been a subject of debate for centuries, but maybe one fund executive has put his finger on it.

rtr21iqqSpeaking at this week’s Hedge 2009 conference in London, Fred Fruitman, managing director of family office Loeb Partners Corporation, referred to an FT article this week showing the Church of England’s pension scheme had a “huge great hole” after putting all its investments into stocks towards the end of the ’90s bull market. Financial blasphemy?

Hedge 2009

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Today sees the start of the Hedge 2009 conference at the Hilton by Tower Bridge.

rtr27e5bSpeakers such as USS and Permal will assess what investors are looking for in hedge funds while Polygon and SVM will debate how funds put forward the right liquidity terms to investors.

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