Funds Hub
Money managers under the microscope
GLG: Italy and Greece deserve a central bank
Guest contributors Bart Turtelboom and Karim Abdel-Motaal run the Emerging Market strategy at Man GLG. The views expressed are their own.
History is written by the victors. That is what emerging markets discovered after their currency crises of the 1990s, and it is what will happen when the annals of the euro crisis are compiled. Treatment of this crisis has varied, but in all its forms the basic premise is already set: Germany and the world are the undeserving victims of Peripheral European excess. The Periphery spent and borrowed too much causing the current crisis. Add to this the cultural imagery of Greek pensioners retiring at the tender age of 55 on exotic Aegean islands at German savers’ expense and the colourful chapter on this historical saga is written.
If Emerging Markets is any guide, the problem with this narrative is not just that it is wrong, but downright dangerous in its policy implications. The tyrannical hold of this perspective on European policy making is pushing the continent down the path of a historic pro-cyclical fiscal contraction almost as the be all and end all of crisis response. There is already a mountain of evidence that this has not worked, whatever the merits of debt reduction and ideological divisions on its pace and timing. The missing ingredient has always been and remains today, quite different. Italy and Greece lack a central bank. More importantly, they deserve one, desperately.
For an economy where paper money is the medium of exchange and fractional reserve banking exists where a bank transforms a unit of deposits into a multiple of that in loans, a central bank is essential. This is as true of Switzerland as it is of Greece. It performs a function of lender of last resort to prevent a rapid run on an otherwise solvent bank (a liquidity crisis) from turning into a solvency one for that bank or for the entire banking system. When Italy and Greece signed onto the Euro, they had a legitimate right to expect that the Central Banks they were giving up would be replaced by a common Eurozone one, which would in effect perform the same function for their economies. What they got instead was a Central Bank which is constrained by mandate, and German objection to its modification, from performing that function for anyone but Germany.
In the Eurozone, not only are the ECB’s clients the member state banks, but also the sovereigns. We are in the advanced stages of a full blown and contagious run on both, with the ECB for all intents and purposes on the sidelines. Whatever support it has provided so far in the guise of purchases of distressed member state debt and bank liquidity provision has been trivial in relation to the size of the run, and communicated in such a tentative way as to aggravate it, by signalling impotence. The ECB’s absence, whatever its legal justifications, has effectively reduced Italy and Greece, not to mention the Eurozone, to the status of a barter economy.
Italians and Greeks can and should justifiably ask for redress. They did not give up their Liras and Drachmas to be put through a fiscal vice as the cost of the most basic central banking services being provided them, any more than U.S. states did for the same service from the Federal Reserve. The lender of last resort function is a relatively uncontroversial one, which has little to do with ideological debates about the desirability or effectiveness of active monetary policy or with Weimer Republic-induced phobias of hyperinflation and money printing. The idea, that in the middle of a full-blown bank/sovereign run, a central bank’s intervention would be made conditional on preceding actions, fiscal or otherwise, that are subject to political vagaries, is extraordinary and dangerous.
A confidence crisis is precisely that; it cannot wait and must be dealt with decisively and conclusively if the vicious cycle is to be arrested. This is not to say that the fiscal and debt problems which challenged confidence to begin with should not be addressed; they should. However, in this European version of the Emerging Markets archetype, we are in now well beyond the phase where a medium term fiscal adjustment announced by technocratic governments in Greece or Italy will have any effect. It maybe part of the solution, but it is certainly not sufficient, or the most urgent issue. The ECB needs to act and act big.
Morning Line-up: Smaller hedge funds, state meddling and board diversity
News and views on the asset management industry from Reuters and elsewhere:
Average fund of hedge funds size drops by half – Financial News
Rising state meddling in EM companies irks investors – Reuters
Morning Line-Up: Libya and Madoff, hedge funds in North Africa, China in Japan
News and views on the asset management industry from Reuters and elsewhere
Libyan state fund rejected Madoff offer – FT
Hedge funds wary of punts on North Africa chaos – Reuters
China’s stealth investments in Japan – WSJ
Morning Line-Up: Hedge funds demand risk, gender-neutral pensions, Fidelity eyes China
News and views on the asset management industry from Reuters and elsewhere
Hedge funds show more appetite for risk – Financial News
UK universities eye and keep an eye on new hedge fund punts
Pension schemes are moving away from the usual equity/bond/real estate mix to put their eggs in as many baskets as possible. No wonder then that the USS — the 31.6 billion pounds UK universities pension fund — is putting an extra 1.5 percent of its assets, or about 474 million pounds, into hedge funds, as its CIO Roger Gray tells Reuters.
If you are rushing to the phone to pitch business with Mr Gray, however, STOP a minute fund manager: be prepared, the USS is not only eyeing alpha, it is going to ask a few questions about how alpha is distributed and how investors are protected.
“Is the board of the hedge fund constituted in a way which gives us assurance that they are actually acting in the interest of the limited partners rather than in the pocket of the managers?” he said.
Key words for this pitch: governance, transparency, best and practice.
Key advice for this pitch: forewarned is forearmed. (The USS does not seem to need the usual ’caveat emptor’ advice).
Go forth, brave hedgie!
Know your hedgie – Pix from Monaco
Reuters snappers have been grabbing some headshots of hedge fund managers at GAIM this year. Thought we’d showcase a few here:
Morning line up
Hedge fund stories from the past 24 hours from Reuters and elsewhere:
EU move to curb hedge, private equity manager pay - Financial Times
Hedge fund strategies post positive returns in October - Hedgeweek
Morning Line-up
Hedge fund stories from the past 24 hours from Reuters and elsewhere:
Galleon charges shine harsh light on hedge fund industry- Market Watch
US hedgie Cadogan inks spin off from Fortis - Reuters
Pellegrini says shorting U.S. debt ‘attractive bet’ - Bloomberg
Templeton’s Mobius sees more insider trading cases – Reuters
Morning Line-up
Hedge fund stories from the past 24 hours from Reuters and elsewhere:
Madoff friend Picower dead, found in pool – Reuters
Probe widening in Galleon case – WSJ
Hedge funds edge closer to recouping crisis losses – WSJ
UK hedgie loses out in sale of Irish Continental stake – Irish Independent
Hedge fund prices decline for fourth month, Hedgebay data show – Bloomberg
Morning line-up
Hedge fund stories from the past 24 hours from Reuters and elsewhere:
SAC invests in star trader’s fund – FT Alphavile
Massachusetts court rules against hedge fund manager – Reuters
3A launches Ucits III fund of hedge funds – Opalesque
SilkInvest launches fixed income frontier fund - HedgeCo.Net
Bearish funds set for redemptions, Cramer predicts – NYT DealBook
I agree completely! This is a fantastic article. If only policy-makers in Europe would listen. Unfortunately, we can be pretty sure they won’t. Now that Europe is ruled entirely by right-wing governments, fiscal responsibility is not really in the cards.