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Money managers under the microscope

from Global Investing:

Hedge fund boss Baha sees gold at $3,000-$5,000

Christian Baha, the head of Austrian fund firm Superfund and representative of the hedge fund industry in Oliver Stone movie Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, is predicting that the gold price could rise to between $3,000 and $5,000 over the next five to 10 years.

Baha, who says he has more than half his personal wealth in gold and silver, either physically or in units in Superfund funds denominated in the precious metals, believes that an unprecedented phase of quantitative easing by central banks is driving a bubble in government bonds, but that gold offers real value.

"Do you think paper money has any intrinsic value? I don't believe so. Gold has real value," Baha said in a recent interview.

"If gold goes down to $1,200 or $1,000 then I'm going to buy more. I really don't care. They're just printing new money."

from Global Investing:

SocGen poll unearths more EM bulls in July

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These are not the best of times for emerging markets but some investors don't seem too perturbed. According to Societe Generale,  almost half the clients it surveys in its monthly snap poll of investors have turned bullish on emerging markets' near-term prospects. That is a big shift from June, when only 33 percent were optimistic on the sector. And less than a third of folk are bearish for the near-term outlook over the next couple of weeks, a drop of 20 percentage points over the past month.

These findings are perhaps not so surprising, given most risky assets have rallied off the lows of May.  And a bailout of Spain's banks seems to have averted, at least temporarily, an immediate debt and banking crunch in the euro zone. What is more interesting is that despite a cloudy growth picture in the developing world, especially in the four big BRIC economies,  almost two-thirds of the investors polled declared themselves bullish on emerging markets in the medium-term (the next 3 months) . That rose to almost 70 percent for real money investors. (the poll includes 46 real money accounts and 45 hedge funds from across the world).

A choice between risk and return?

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By Dunny P. Moonesawmy. Head of Fund Research for Lipper in Western Europe/Middle East and Africa. The views expressed are his own.

Hedge funds have delivered decent risk-return results over the past ten years. And as transparency and liquidity increased post-credit crisis, they have regained their appeal as providers of absolute return opportunities for investors. In addition, an increasing lack of market visibility globally has played to hedge funds’ supposed strengths, with total industry assets under management now exceeding the $2 trillion, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Hedge funds vs mutual funds

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By Dunny P. Moonesawmy, Head of Fund Research for Lipper in western Europe, Middle East and Africa. The views expressed are his own.

Hedge funds took some heat from the credit crisis as liquidity and transparency became critical factors in investment decision-making. It’s fair to say hedge funds continued to deliver decent returns to investors, but how do they compare to mutual funds if we focus on performance and risk alone?

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