Opinion

George Chen

Post-earthquake concept stocks

Mar 24, 2011 00:01 EDT

By George Chen
The opinions expressed are the author’s own.

Have you had breakfast or lunch yet? In Hong Kong, I’m guessing few people are choosing sushi these days.

Many restaurants in Hong Kong, even Japanese restaurants, have been quick to distance themselves from the crisis in Japan since the earthquake as concerns about food safety are growing in many Asia-Pacific cities, including Beijing, Seoul and Sydney.

The Japanese authorities announced this week that they would widen a ban on exports of a wide range of food products from areas surrounding the earthquake-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. In fact, even before the official ban, the health authorities in China, Hong Kong and South Korea were already monitoring all such imports from Japan.

I’ve seen a number of sell-side analysts recommend Chinese food and beverage stocks, including some fisheries, which are now expected to benefit from the Japan crisis as people turn to locally produced seafood. Australian and New Zealand seafood companies should also benefit. It sounds like a perfect time for banks such as ANZ to expand, helping Australian and New Zealand farmers and fisheries extend their reach beyond their domestic markets, turning a crisis into an opportunity.

Some Chinese brokerages called such stocks “post-earthquake concept stocks”. Have you read the story about how Chinese truck maker Sany sent to Japan their innovative truck that can shoot wet concrete several meters into the air? Sany is likely to be a typical post-earthquake star pick, as are construction companies in Japan.

It’s not a fun idea but it does make sense. After all, investors can’t just sit in front of television screens feeling sad but doing nothing. What’s your say about the post-earthquake era in Japan from the economic perspective?

George Chen is a Reuters editor and columnist based in Hong Kong.

COMMENT

What is sad is that not once do you mention the effect this disaster has had upon the people of Japan. Investments aside. I find it’s a sad commentary that investors and business entities will profit from the result of this disaster. I have to keep in mind that in the world of business their is no place for weighing in of the human element, only dollars and cents the bottom line. Where once thriving market existed now it being all but decimated another has a way to prosper. I suppose it is these types of sentiments that have not made me jump onto mishaps, such as the way Toyota was shorted so quickly after it had its break systems problems. The truck that can shoot cement into the air, sounds like a very applicable system in the event the operators of the damaged reactors need to reinforced in a manner that would not place operators at close range. As far as the Sushi and fish market, I can see where new sources of safe fish will replace those once provided by Japanese market sources, for years to come. I suppose I am not thinking about profiting from this disaster as much as still coming to terms with the facts that so many have been effected, will continue to be effected and the process of rebuilding infrastructures and lives will take billions and the proud and resilient people of Japan and members of the world community to see this dark time to a positive conclusion.

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Dairy and property: How Japan’s crisis is affecting China

Mar 17, 2011 05:06 EDT
Chinese moms
While the rest of the world is trying to help Japan deal with the aftermath of its earthquake and tsunami, some parents in China and Hong Kong are on a single-minded quest to buy up as much made-in-Japan baby formula as they can. On my way to work on Monday morning, I saw a long queue of anxious-looking people in front of a grocery store. Over the following three days, the queue got longer and longer and more and more anxious.
They were all after the same thing – baby formula from Japan. This is simply because some Chinese parents believe their babies are accustomed to drinking Japanese milk and they are concerned that radiation may affect the quality of exports from Japan in coming months
Hong Kong media reported that retail prices for some Japanese baby formula have risen more than 30 percent this week. At present, the market price is about HK$250 (US$32) for a standard container and some retailers are reportedly limiting purchases to six per person to avoid angering latecomers. In this case, parents called on relatives, even elderly grandparents, to join the queue on their behalf (which works if you have many relatives and friends who are willing to help). Of course, Hong Kong parents are not alone in this concern. A fast-growing number of parents in mainland China are on a similar quest and they don’t mind paying HK$2,000 (US$256) for a round-trip ticket from major mainland cities to Hong Kong to buy made-in-Japan products.
People in Hong Kong, may soon face a bigger disappointment as a result of Japan’s earthquake – the possibility of property prices rising even further and faster. Local property agents say they have noticed some landlords want to increase rents, especially in downtown areas such as Admiralty and the Mid-levels, which are within minutes of Hong Kong’s Central financial and business district, where many international banks have their regional headquarters.
Global financial firms including Blackstone, BNP Paribas and Royal Bank of Scotland are relocating foreign staff, especially senior executives, from Tokyo to neighboring bases to avoid the possibility of radiation exposure. These executive typically head to Singapore, Hong Kong and Beijing, with most apparently happier to choose Hong Kong, if not Singapore.
Rents in Hong Kong are already a social problem, making the city one of the most expensive places in the world in which to live. The government has been trying to cool prices since late last year. With more rich but timorous bankers being relocating to Hong Kong from Tokyo and so far no indication of when they might return to Japan, the outlook for the property market in Hong Kong looks bullish.
I’m not saying this isn’t a positive  trend, but given what is happening to the lives of ordinary people in Hong Kong and China, the crisis in Japan is becoming a crisis for Asia, if not the rest of the world. If the nuclear crisis cannot be contained and people lose confidence in crisis management and post-crisis protection, a chain reaction may be seen in many areas beyond dairy and property prices.

Japan

By George Chen
The opinions expressed are the author’s own.

While the rest of the world is trying to help Japan deal with the aftermath of its earthquake and tsunami, some parents in China and Hong Kong are on a single-minded quest to buy up as much made-in-Japan baby formula as they can.

On my way to work on Monday morning, I saw a long queue of anxious-looking people in front of a grocery store. Over the following three days, the queue got longer and longer and more and more anxious.

They were all after the same thing – baby formula from Japan. This is simply because some Chinese parents believe their babies are accustomed to drinking Japanese milk and they are concerned that radiation may affect the quality of exports from Japan in the coming months.

Hong Kong media reported that retail prices for some Japanese baby formula have risen more than 30 percent this week. At present, the market price is about HK$250 (US$32) for a standard container (200g / 7oz) and some retailers are reportedly limiting purchases to six per person to avoid angering latecomers.

In this case, parents called on relatives, even elderly grandparents, to join the queue on their behalf (which works if you have many relatives and friends who are willing to help). Of course, Hong Kong parents are not alone in this concern. A fast-growing number of parents in mainland China are on a similar quest and they don’t mind paying HK$2,000 (US$256) for a round-trip ticket from major mainland cities to Hong Kong to buy made-in-Japan products.

Meanwhile, people in Hong Kong, may have to face an even bigger disappointment soon as a result of Japan’s earthquake – the possibility of property prices rising even further and faster.

Local property agents say they have noticed some landlords want to increase rents, especially in downtown areas such as Admiralty and the Mid-levels, which are within minutes of Hong Kong’s Central financial and business district, where many international banks have their regional headquarters.

Global financial firms including Blackstone, BNP Paribas and Royal Bank of Scotland are relocating foreign staff, especially senior executives, from Tokyo to neighboring bases to avoid the possibility of radiation exposure. These executives are typically asked to head to Singapore, Hong Kong and Beijing, with most apparently happier to choose Hong Kong, if not Singapore.

Rents in Hong Kong are already make the city one of the most expensive places in the world in which to live. The government has been trying to cool prices since late last year. With more rich but timorous bankers being relocating to Hong Kong from Tokyo and so far no indication of when they might return to Japan, the outlook for the property market in Hong Kong looks bullish.

I’m not saying this isn’t a positive  trend, but given what is happening to the lives of ordinary people in Hong Kong and China, the crisis in Japan is becoming a crisis for Asia, if not the rest of the world.

If the nuclear crisis cannot be contained and people lose confidence in crisis management and post-crisis protection, a chain reaction may be seen in many areas beyond dairy and property prices.

George Chen is a Reuters editor and columnist based in Hong Kong.

Photo: Policemen maintain order as customers wait outside a store called “Japanese Milk Powder” before it opens in Hong Kong March 16, 2011. REUTERS/Bobby Yip

COMMENT

Premium 12.5 oz. formula cost $20.66 in the US. I just price checked. The blame on inflation is being munipulated. Either the Chinese are very wealthy or formula is a major expense.

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Japan, in danger and opportunity

Mar 13, 2011 23:41 EDT

earthquake

By George Chen
The opinions expressed are the author’s own.

You might consider yourself very smart, powerful or perhaps wealthy, but after watching live coverage on TV of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan on Friday afternoon, what was your reaction? We’re all nobodies in the face of the forces of nature.

On Friday afternoon before the earthquake, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index showed unexpected signs of recovery but the rebound was unfortunately short-lived. Immediately following the news alert about Japan’s worst earthquake in decades, stock markets from Hong Kong to Shanghai all retreated quickly.

This was a very natural reaction to such a massive natural disaster. Almost the same reaction was seen after the earthquake in China’s Sichuan province in May 2008. When investors feel uncertain and then the market sentiment becomes anxious, they sell. Fair enough – who really is in the mood to trade after seeing such a horrible event?

But think twice.

The phrase 危机 (wei ji) in Chinese for “crisis” is comprised of 危, danger and 机, opportunity. If you think you are smart, powerful or rich, is it time for you to turn the danger into an opportunity? It doesn’t simply mean you should immediately buy stocks to help the markets recover, so people may feel better and more hopeful about the economic outlook for Asia, but you need a plan to figure out what to do next.

So, what’s next? There won’t be any earthquake-like shock for Asia’s capital markets, I say.

Takuji Okubo, Chief Japan Economist for French bank Societe Generale, said in a research note to clients that the Japan earthquake would have a negative impact on regional equities markets over the short term but in the long run, it may help Japan’s economy grow, given the government’s big efforts to rebuild infrastructure, homes and so on.

What does that mean to China? Can Chinese materials and construction companies help? Because of growing concern about nuclear radiation, food safety is becoming another big challenge for Japan, especially to exports and this may be another angle worth studying about what a role China can play in and after the crisis.

We won’t be always in danger so your opportunity should come in next.

George Chen is a Reuters editor and columnist based in Hong Kong.

Photo: A man steps over a crack in the road as he walks towards the devastated area of Rikuzentakata, northern Japan after the magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami struck the area, March 13, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won

COMMENT

Rebuilding Japan will create lot of business opportunities and boost the economy. Now Japan has to build alternative sources of energy to prevent future nuclear accidents. Planning & building large energy generation plants from solar, wind, wave, etc. will bring back the country to economic power.

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