Euro falls to near two-year low as Greece, Spain weigh
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro tumbled to nearly two-year lows against the dollar on Friday, and remained on track for its worst weekly showing in five months, rattled by fears of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and the risk other debt-plagued countries could also leave the regional bloc.
A plea from Spain’s wealthiest autonomous region, Catalonia, for help from the central government to refinance its debt this year became the latest headline to hit the euro.
Catalonia’s appeal affected almost all asset classes as Spanish and Italian bonds sold off, equities fell, and U.S. crude futures turned negative.
“The Catalonia news was a big deal because it implies that the Spanish government may have to take on more debt and it cannot afford to do so,” said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Securities in New York.
“It looks like all the euros that were bought need to be resold. For now, it’s all about contagion,” he added.
In early New York trading, the euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.2523, after earlier falling to a nearly two-year low of $1.2495 on trading platform EBS, taking out a key options barrier at $1.25, placing the euro on pace for its worst weekly performance in five months.
The common currency has lost more than 5 percent against the dollar so far this month and is facing its fourth straight week of losses, raising the possibility of a test of the 2010 low of $1.1875.
Forex-Euro edges up after hitting nearly 2-year low
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro edged up from nearly two-year lows against the dollar on Thursday as investors consolidated bearish positions on the common currency ahead of a long U.S. holiday weekend, although any bounce could be fleeting as the market frets about Greece’s possible exit from the euro zone.
Dour German manufacturing data on Thursday reminded investors that no country in the region was immune from the debt crisis. The German report further unnerved investors already worried not only about Greece but also by the risk that other similarly indebted countries such as Spain could also exit the regional bloc or default on their debt.
Paul Dietrich, chief executive officer at Foxhall Capital Management in Orange, Connecticut said, however, that Greece’s problems have already been priced in by the market.
“What investors are worried about is a banking crisis in Europe. Mainly they are looking at who is the next one to exit,” said Dietrich. “If Spain starts looking likely that it could leave the European Union or default on its debt, then you’re going to see a major banking crisis in Europe because European banks hold massive amounts of Spanish debt.”
Dietrich has retained a defensive stance in his portfolio, with 70 percent of holdings in short-term U.S. Treasuries.
The unexpectedly weak Ifo business climate index and manufacturing PMI data for May suggested that the growth in Europe’s largest economy that had helped the euro zone dodge recession may be starting to slow.
Signs of a downturn across the region, along with banking sector problems in Spain and the risk of contagion ensnaring bigger economies are combining to keep euro bears firmly in control, with some investors targeting $1.20 in coming weeks.
Forex-Euro falls to almost two-year low on Greek fears
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro plunged against the dollar to its weakest level in nearly two years on Wednesday on growing fears Greece will leave the euro zone and widespread doubts about the outcome of a European summit later in the day.
European Union leaders are expected to discuss growth-boosting measures, but are not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany’s strong opposition to joint euro bonds.
Euro zone officials have told members of the currency area to prepare contingency plans in case Greece quits the bloc, an eventuality which Germany’s central bank said would be testing but “manageable,” three officials told Reuters.
“The euro is mostly selling off because of the dysfunctional process. We don’t know what’s going to happen and we don’t know what the European leaders want – there is no leadership,” said Axel Merk, portfolio manager of the $650 million Merk Hard Currency Fund in Palo Alto, California.
He said talk about a Greek exit assumes that Greece could realistically pull it off. “The market is giving Greece way too much credit. I don’t know how it can engineer an exit without Germany’s help.”
The euro fell to $1.25638 on trading platform EBS, its lowest level since July 2010 as real money investors, corporates and macro funds stepped up euro selling. It was last at $1.25883, down 0.8 percent.
The common currency also fell against the yen, dropping below 100 yen and hitting its lowest level since early February The euro last changed hands at 99.80 yen, down 1.6 percent.
Searching for yield in uncertain times
NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) – The hunt for yield in a low-interest-rate world is driving investors into markets such as U.S. junk bonds and Japanese stocks as they shrug off the risk the global recovery could stall.
Many asset managers remain upbeat about prospects for the global economy and have kept allocations to riskier assets intact despite the latest round of turmoil in Europe.
Of course, investors are hedging against possible losses. These assets have their drawbacks, including a dependence on easy money from the Federal Reserve, and they are highly vulnerable to a worsening of Europe’s debt crisis.
However, managers have been forced to become creative in their search for yield after nearly four years of zero interest rates in the United States. For now, income is trumping risk.
“Yes, there would be bumps in the road, but it helps that we have central banks in the world whose No. 1 goal is to prevent a crisis,” said Sara Zervos, senior portfolio manager and global head of international fixed income at Oppenheimer Funds.
The euro zone’s debt woes remain at the forefront of investor worries including the possible exit of Greece from the currency bloc after political leaders failed to reach agreement on a coalition government.
Seven Investment Management co-founder and director Justin Urquhart Stewart, however, believes euro zone leaders will somehow find a way to “manage the Greek situation.” The firm’s view remains that the euro will survive, although it remains to be seen whether Greece will stay in the club.
Euro sinks to 21-month low as Greek exit fears rise
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro plunged to a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as investors dumped the currency on growing fears of a Greek euro zone exit and widespread doubts about the outcome of an EU summit later in the day.
EU leaders are expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but are not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany’s strong opposition to joint euro bonds.
Investors are doubtful that the leaders will come up with any measures to calm fears that have grown since an inconclusive Greek election earlier this month left the country on the path to bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro zone.
“The whole problem of Greece, of fiscal retrenchment in the euro zone, the lack of growth across the region, and the reactive nature of the authorities are all ongoing,” said Richard Batty, investment director for multi-asset investing at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, Scotland.
“We just don’t think there’s a quick fix. The unresponsive nature of the authorities with the markets seemingly forcing authorities to action, to our mind is very unhealthy for the euro zone.”
Standard Life, which manages assets of around $240 billion, has not owned European assets for some time.
The euro fell to $1.2615 on trading platform EBS, dropping below the 2012 low of $1.2624 set in January to mark its lowest since August 2010 as real money investors, corporates and macro funds stepped up euro selling. It was last at $1.2668, down 0.1 percent.
Euro falls vs. dollar as EU summit hopes dim
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday after two days of gains as investors pared back expectations that an informal meeting of European leaders would yield much progress in tackling the region’s debt crisis.
However, given the market’s stretched bearish positioning and oversold signals on the technical charts, the euro could see a short-term squeeze higher ahead of the European summit.
While there have been hopes in some quarters that Wednesday’s summit may lead to agreement on measures to boost growth, investors were not confident of a breakthrough given apparent differences in opinion between Germany and France.
French President Francois Hollande is expected to push for a joint euro zone bond, a measure backed by Italy, Spain and the European Commission.
However Germany, Europe’s largest economy and paymaster, has so far opposed the move and continues to champion austerity measures. A German official said on Tuesday euro bonds did not offer a solution to the region’s problems.
“The string of summit meetings that have been called to address the euro crisis thus far have more often than not failed to live up to market hopes for quick and decisive action and this one will be no exception,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
In early New York trading, the euro was down 0.4 percent against the dollar at $1.2757, though it held above last week’s four-month low of $1.2642.
Euro dips vs. dollar but may see short-term bounce
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro slipped against the dollar on Monday, weighed down by concerns about Greece and Spain’s debt problems, although key technical signals and overextended bearish positioning suggested a short-term bounce.
Speculators who had piled up a record amount of bets against the euro cut some of those positions, as the euro zone common currency rose from last week’s four-month low, giving it some relief from this month’s relentless selling.
The euro has fallen in six of the last seven sessions, down 3.6 percent so far this month.
“Euro/dollar made an important double bottom and the positioning is definitely getting stretched,” said Brad Bechtel, managing director, at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.
“Many will not shake out too much on the positioning given deep imbedded gains, but it is a currency that likes its double tops and bottoms, so we could be in a for a good-sized bounce.”
In midday New York trading, the euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.2770 (0.808 pounds), well above Friday’s low of $1.2640. A break below the nearby 2012 low of $1.2624 would take the shared currency back down to levels not seen since August 2010. The euro’s generally steady performance was helped by gains in European and U.S. stocks after being sold off last week.
Bechtel, however, said offers on the euro are thick above $1.2880 and above $1.2950.
Euro slides but may see short-term bounce
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday, weighed down by concerns about Greece and Spain’s debt problems, although key technical signals and overextended bearish positioning suggested a short-term bounce.
Speculators who had piled up a record amount of bets against the euro cut some of those positions, rising from last week’s four-month low and giving the currency a respite from this month’s relentless selling.
The euro has fallen in six of the last seven sessions, down nearly 4 percent so far this month.
“Euro/dollar made an important double bottom and the positioning is definitely getting stretched,” said Brad Bechtel, managing director, at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.
“Many will not shake out too much on the positioning given deep imbedded gains, but it is a currency that likes its double tops and bottoms, so we could be in a for a good-sized bounce.”
In early New York trading, the euro fell 0.4 percent at $1.2734, well above Friday’s low of $1.2640. A break below the nearby 2012 low of $1.2624 would take the shared currency back down to levels not seen since August 2010.
Bechtel said offers on the euro are thick above $1.2880 and above $1.2950.
Yen advances; Greece, Spain woes slam euro
NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) – The safe-haven yen posted sharp gains against the euro and dollar on Thursday on concerns about banks in Spain and Greece, chances of contagion if Greece leaves the euro and disappointing U.S. economic data.
The Japanese currency earlier jumped to a three-month high against both the dollar and euro as talk of possible Spanish bank downgrades pushed European equities sharply lower and kept the single currency under pressure.
The euro had also fallen to a four-month low versus the dollar but recovered by early afternoon to trade slightly higher on the day. Troubles in Greece and Spain added to concern the euro zone lacks a firm plan to deal with its debt problems.
“We … view the risk skewed significantly to the downside in euro/dollar over the next two months,” said Jens Nordvig, global head of currency and fixed income strategy at Nomura Securities in New York.
“The second round of the Greek election may well put the actual exit process in motion, and we would likely see euro/dollar test $1.20 in that scenario.” Greece will hold fresh elections on June 17 after last weekend’s polls ended in a deadlock.
The euro dropped to 100.54 yen, the lowest since February 7. It was last at 100.59, down 1.5 percent.
The dollar also fell sharply against the yen, sliding to 79.12 yen, its weakest level since February 17. By late afternoon trading, the greenback was down 1.3 percent at 79.24 yen.
Yen rises; Greece, Spain fears slam euro
NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) – The yen posted sharp gains against the euro and dollar on Thursday, bolstered by safety bids on concerns about banks in Spain and Greece, chances of contagion if Greece leaves the euro and disappointing U.S. economic data.
The Japanese currency earlier jumped to a three-month high against both the dollar and euro as talk of possible Spanish bank downgrades pushed European equities sharply lower and kept the single currency under pressure.
The euro had also fallen to a four-month low versus the dollar but recovered by early afternoon to trade slightly higher on the day. Troubles in Greece and Spain added to concern the euro zone lacks a firm plan to deal with debt problems. That led to anxiety the crisis could eventually endanger the currency bloc itself.
“We … view the risk skewed significantly to the downside in euro/dollar over the next two months,” said Jens Nordvig, global head of currency and fixed income strategy at Nomura Securities in New York.
“The second round of the Greek election may well put the actual exit process in motion, and we would likely see euro/dollar test $1.20 in that scenario.” Greece will hold fresh elections on June 17 after last weekend’s polls ended in a deadlock.
The euro dropped to 100.54 yen, the lowest since February 7. It was last at 100.94, down more than 1.0 percent.
The dollar also fell sharply against the yen, sliding to 79.12 yen, its weakest level since February 17. By early afternoon trading, the greenback was down 1.2 percent at 79.33 yen.

