Comments on: Is the war in Iraq over? http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/ Beyond the World news headlines Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:18:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: OK Jack http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-711 OK Jack Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:19:36 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-711 The war has been over in Iraq since Mr. Bush announced it was over, Mr. & Mrs. Reader. In that, Mr. Bush was correct (although he really didn't know it at the time). What are not over are the occupation and counterinsurgency in Iraq. One must make a clear distinction between a conventional war and an unconventional counterinsurgency. A counterinsurgency is by definition designed to quell an insurgency, but unfortunately is unwinnable by that very definition as well. In other words, the last man standing is always the insurgent...no matter how many human resources, how much time & how much money is poured into what is a perpetual and unreachable goal of stamping out an insurgency. Most people generally focus on the counterinsurgency operations that have been conducted by the United States in Iraq and in Afghanistan since 2003 and 2001, respectively. However, an even more obvious and very long string of counterinsurgency operations have been conducted by the Israelis against Palestinian insurgents since 1947 when the United Nations saw fit to partition Palestine on behalf of the wave of Jewish immigrants into Palestine who had been emigrating mostly from Europe for decades prior to World War II. When the partition occurred, Palestinians outnumbered Israelis (Jews) by 2 to 1. The Palestinian insurgency is destined to go on into perpetuity because of the unique way in which the Israelis have gotten the United States to support the modern Jewish state unconditionally. In other words, there will never be a withdrawal of Jews from Israel proper (the unthinkable)...and the same is almost certainly true of Gaza and the West Bank. Other more recent (but just as unwinnable) counterinsurgencies were those conducted by the Russians in Afghanistan for some 10-11 years in the late 1970's and 1980's...and by the Americans in Vietnam (Cambodia & Laos) for 10-11 years in the 1960's and early 1970's. Unlike the counterinsurgency being waged by the Israelis, the Afghan and Vietnam insurgencies finally wore the populations and governments of Russia and the United States down after only a relatively short period of time. Yes, I said "short". After all the Palestinian insurgency has been waged against the Israeli counterinsurgency for 60 long years. OK Jack The war has been over in Iraq since Mr. Bush announced it was over, Mr. & Mrs. Reader. In that, Mr. Bush was correct (although he really didn’t know it at the time).

What are not over are the occupation and counterinsurgency in Iraq.

One must make a clear distinction between a conventional war and an unconventional counterinsurgency. A counterinsurgency is by definition designed to quell an insurgency, but unfortunately is unwinnable by that very definition as well. In other words, the last man standing is always the insurgent…no matter how many human resources, how much time & how much money is poured into what is a perpetual and unreachable goal of stamping out an insurgency.

Most people generally focus on the counterinsurgency operations that have been conducted by the United States in Iraq and in Afghanistan since 2003 and 2001, respectively.

However, an even more obvious and very long string of counterinsurgency operations have been conducted by the Israelis against Palestinian insurgents since 1947 when the United Nations saw fit to partition Palestine on behalf of the wave of Jewish immigrants into Palestine who had been emigrating mostly from Europe for decades prior to World War II. When the partition occurred, Palestinians outnumbered Israelis (Jews) by 2 to 1.

The Palestinian insurgency is destined to go on into perpetuity because of the unique way in which the Israelis have gotten the United States to support the modern Jewish state unconditionally. In other words, there will never be a withdrawal of Jews from Israel proper (the unthinkable)…and the same is almost certainly true of Gaza and the West Bank.

Other more recent (but just as unwinnable) counterinsurgencies were those conducted by the Russians in Afghanistan for some 10-11 years in the late 1970’s and 1980’s…and by the Americans in Vietnam (Cambodia & Laos) for 10-11 years in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. Unlike the counterinsurgency being waged by the Israelis, the Afghan and Vietnam insurgencies finally wore the populations and governments of Russia and the United States down after only a relatively short period of time.

Yes, I said “short”. After all the Palestinian insurgency has been waged against the Israeli counterinsurgency for 60 long years.

OK Jack

]]> By: Patrick http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-706 Patrick Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:02:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-706 The war in Iraq is not over by any means. I see this as just another 'lull' in the overall fighting as past trends show. The past 5 years has shown its ups and downs, progress versus regress, and gains versus losses. The Sunni insurgency has been suppressed for now (but not defeated), and the Shia elements have continued to solidify their power throughout the country (for good or ill). The Kurdish position continues to be volatile in the north as Turkish forces openly battle Kurdish separitists. Once the summer months continue to abate, Ramadan will come, and after that, we will see a resurgence of violent activity throughout the country. The Sunni insurgency has largely been suppress due to increased cooperation with Coalition Forces, funding friendly Sheiks and religious leaders, and Shia political consolidation in Central and Southern Iraq. If Sunni elements within Iraq continue to see their position eroded at the national level, there will be another phase in their violent activities against both Coalition Forces and Shia militias. It will matter not what president eventually gets elected in January of next year because they will merely inherit this whole conflict and deal with it from that point forward. As to how this conflict will turn in the coming years will largely depend on several external factors; the current stance towards Iran and their nuclear program, the survival of the dollar as the reseve currency of choice, OPECs decision to continue to peg oil sales in US dollars, and the United States ability to continue to sustain military operation in both OIF and OEF. America must take a critical look into both the Soviet (and Russian) and British experiences in both Iraq and Afghanistan over the past 100 years or so. This will enable us to provide a picture as to what went wrong with both of their experiences in those campaigns. When talking about the Iraqi situation, it was the Shia elements that ultimately drove the British out in the early 1920's which resulted in a 'negotiated peace'. One of the things that have changed in Iraq is the fact that after 80 years of Sunni rule, the Shia are now more or less in charge of the affairs of the country. This will change the political landscape of the country, and at the same time, solidify Iranian influence throughout the 'Shia Cresent' from Iran to Lebanon. The future is rather uncertain, but we can indeed change the political and religious environment so that all parties involved can benefit in the end. America can succeed in this War On Terror if we have the right leadership, choose the right allies, and set clear objectives (with an eventual endstate) in mind. The war in Iraq is not over by any means. I see this as just another ‘lull’ in the overall fighting as past trends show. The past 5 years has shown its ups and downs, progress versus regress, and gains versus losses. The Sunni insurgency has been suppressed for now (but not defeated), and the Shia elements have continued to solidify their power throughout the country (for good or ill). The Kurdish position continues to be volatile in the north as Turkish forces openly battle Kurdish separitists.
Once the summer months continue to abate, Ramadan will come, and after that, we will see a resurgence of violent activity throughout the country. The Sunni insurgency has largely been suppress due to increased cooperation with Coalition Forces, funding friendly Sheiks and religious leaders, and Shia political consolidation in Central and Southern Iraq. If Sunni elements within Iraq continue to see their position eroded at the national level, there will be another phase in their violent activities against both Coalition Forces and Shia militias.
It will matter not what president eventually gets elected in January of next year because they will merely inherit this whole conflict and deal with it from that point forward. As to how this conflict will turn in the coming years will largely depend on several external factors; the current stance towards Iran and their nuclear program, the survival of the dollar as the reseve currency of choice, OPECs decision to continue to peg oil sales in US dollars, and the United States ability to continue to sustain military operation in both OIF and OEF.
America must take a critical look into both the Soviet (and Russian) and British experiences in both Iraq and Afghanistan over the past 100 years or so. This will enable us to provide a picture as to what went wrong with both of their experiences in those campaigns. When talking about the Iraqi situation, it was the Shia elements that ultimately drove the British out in the early 1920’s which resulted in a ‘negotiated peace’. One of the things that have changed in Iraq is the fact that after 80 years of Sunni rule, the Shia are now more or less in charge of the affairs of the country. This will change the political landscape of the country, and at the same time, solidify Iranian influence throughout the ‘Shia Cresent’ from Iran to Lebanon.
The future is rather uncertain, but we can indeed change the political and religious environment so that all parties involved can benefit in the end. America can succeed in this War On Terror if we have the right leadership, choose the right allies, and set clear objectives (with an eventual endstate) in mind.

]]> By: Nu'man El-Bakri http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-705 Nu'man El-Bakri Thu, 31 Jul 2008 13:33:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/31/is-the-war-in-iraq-over/#comment-705 Dean, The population of Iraq is slighter larger than 5 young men chilling in a park. How about asking the same question to relatives of the 600,000+ civilians murdered since the invasion? I think the answer is obvious. It is far from 'mission accomplished' Peace will come to Iraq when the last U.S. soldiers leaves, The Iraqis are managing their own affairs, and George Bush is sentenced to death for crimes against humanity. Dean,

The population of Iraq is slighter larger than 5 young men chilling in a park. How about asking the same question to relatives of the 600,000+ civilians murdered since the invasion? I think the answer is obvious. It is far from ‘mission accomplished’

Peace will come to Iraq when the last U.S. soldiers leaves, The Iraqis are managing their own affairs, and George Bush is sentenced to death for crimes against humanity.

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