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12:06 August 18th, 2008

Georgia: How close did Europe come to a wider war?

Posted by: Janet McBride
Tags: Global News, , , , , , , , , ,

ferdinand.jpgA poster at the entrance to the World War One exhibition at London’s Imperial War Museum depicts the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, minutes before they were shot dead as they toured the streets of Sarajevo in an open topped car. The two bullets triggered World War One. Alliances quickly came into play and an argument between Austria and Serbia drew in Russia, Germany, France, Belgium and Britain.

Europe was at war.

On August 8 this year Russia sent its forces into Georgia to repel Tbilisi’s attempt to wrest control of the pro-Russian, breakaway region South Ossetia. Georgia, like Ukraine, has been pressing to join NATO but has only been promised membership of the alliance at an unspecified future date. What would have happened if Georgia had already secured NATO membership, as it wished, at the alliance’s meeting in Bucharest back in April?

Would the conflict have dragged in fellow NATO members including the United States, Britain and Germany? By invoking NATO’s Article V mutual defence clause, the Georgians could have required other nations to come to their assistance.

Could this have led to another European war at a time when the West’s guard was down and the Cold War years seemed consigned to history?

In the days after the conflict began, a senior envoy from a European state opposed to Georgian NATO entry told Reuters: “Thank heavens we didn’t take them in… No one in NATO wants to be dragged into a war in the Caucasus because of (President Mikheil) Saakashvili’s miscalculations.”

What do you think? 

24 comments so far

I ‘ve just finished reading the whole blog. My general impression is that all anti-russian posts look either stupid or hysterical, at the least. Can anyone give serious “nay” to pro-russian side of the story?

- Posted by Alex K.

Let me give a few history facts:
1) Whatever you say, DO NOT CONFUSE Russia with Soviet Union. Russia had suffered from communists more than anyone else in the world. Especially from two Georgians, - Stalin (real name Jugashvili) and Beria (the bloodiest head of KGB). By the way, they gave Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia, - these two countries were never under Georgian jurisdiction.
2) There were always small-scale skirmishes along the Ossetia-Georgian border, that’s why Russian peacekeepers were there separating sides. I don’t think Ossetians were firing at villages, but even if it is so, a massive attack in response to a few shots (possible provocation?) simply cannot be spontaneous and must have been planned ahead.
3) Georgian forces leveled Tskhinvali, a capital of South Ossetia with population ~30,000. More than 1000 civilians (according to Russian officials) were killed. And it took almost 24 hours of bloodshed before Russia has intervened, - that doesn’t look like they were planning the war ahead.

- Posted by Alex K.

Even if all of Europe and the US were in war, it would not have triggered a ‘World’ war. This could only be a Nato-Russia war. During WWI and WWII most of Asia and Africa were under European control. So these regions were also dragged into the wars. Now its not the case. Anyway, this may lead to a nuclear war in Europe and N.America.

But why do you people want to put the lives of millions of people around Europe for the sake of Georgia’s territorial integrity. Is Georgia a divine land that must not be divided?

- Posted by Shaan

Hello People!!!!
This has been coming for a few years now!!! As the sleeping Bear has slowly regained its former military. Russia has been looking at going back to its old ways! Putin is and always will be KGB on the front it has been disband. But when was the last time anyone has heard of freedom of elections in Russia? Required for the G-8 Membership the EU wanted. Every opposition was arrested and Putin put his puppet on stage for the world to see.
I think that a strong statement from Nato and the USA needs to be delivered to Russia NOW!!! If we let them continue to think that the world will stand by and watch!!
We will have many more lives at risk!!! The Ukraine will be next, then Poland and Moldova. Are we a free society willing to let that happen? I hope to god that the USA will respond and make clear that Georgia is free and will remain a free county. My heart bleeds Red White and Blue and I think people need to see the long term affects of this invasion by a hostile force. Russia is already reneging on its signed agreement to withdraw troops and only leave peace keepers

- Posted by JonChris

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