Russia’s bear-paw swipe at Georgia has got many people drawing comparisons with the Cold War, but personally I like to look for parallels in the 19th century.
At the time the faultlines between Russian and British imperial interests ran from the Balkans through the Crimea and the Caucasus to Central Asia and Afghanistan. That is remarkably similar to some of the faultlines creating upheavals today.
Angered by western support for the independence of Kosovo in the Balkans, Russia is at loggerheads with NATO over Georgia in the Caucasus. The row over Georgia has raised fears Russia may halt vital transit of NATO cargoes to Afghanistan – though this has been denied by Moscow – threatening the U.S.-led campaign against al Qaeda and the Taliban. Such is the geographical sweep of the world’s problems, that British commentator Simon Jenkins even suggested we may be drifting towards a new global war.
So what are the lessons of history? And what can we learn about what Russia’s motives really are in the current crisis?
According to Lawrence James’s history of the British Raj, the Russians in the 19th century were experts at applying in war and diplomacy a technique adapted from a chess manoeuvre known as a “Maskirovka”. This aims to deceive your opponent into expecting an attack in one place in order to gain strategic advantage elsewhere. In particular, he says, they tried to trick the British into fearing a Russian invasion of India to divert their attention so that Russia itself could focus on securing its European flank.
The Russians considered this gambit during the Crimean war when Britain and its allies fought Russia for control of the Black Sea (the scene of tensions today between U.S. and Russian ships off the Georgian coast) — eventually driving the Russians out of the port of Sebastopol in 1855 (now known as Sevastopol in Ukraine and leased to Moscow as the base of its Black Sea fleet). It seems history has a way of repeating itself when it comes to choosing its faultlines.
They tried it 20 years later, prompting Britain to invade Afghanistan in 1878 to secure a buffer state between Russia and India. It was Britain’s second attempt to take over Afghanistan and like its earlier invasion from British India ended in humiliation and defeat. But then history has repeated itself so often when it comes to unsuccessful invasions of Afghanistan that it’s a wonder that any foreign army would choose to set foot in the country ever again.
Reading between the lines of James’s account, it’s easy to reach the conclusion that western powers — from the old British empire to the United States of today – have so consistently underestimated Russia’s sense of vulnerability on its European flank that they have misread the signals on other fronts to the point of making foolish counter-moves of their own. Indeed James says one of the few rulers of British India not to have fallen for Maskirovka adopted a policy of “masterly inactivity”.
Perhaps time to take a long hard look at what matters to Russia, and to work out what it is trying to achieve, rather than interpreting its every move as a potential step towards a new Cold War?
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there has never been a military dictatorship in turkey. there has been a military coup in 1980 to restore law and order, because in those days on average 200 person a day were getting killed in political infighting in cities, not even countryside. and politicians of the day had been totally inert, some even openly encouraging violence against opposing political ideologies. it was a war in between right wing and left wing, and ordinary citizens were put in danger. army intervened, brought martial law, and ‘accidental’ deaths of innocent, politically unaffiliated citizens in right and left wing extremists strifes happening here and there around the cities IMMEDIATELY ceased that day. in a few months a cabinet was in charge, and in 2 years a new constitution was put to public vote, and then general elections were held in 3 years time. it was NOT a military dictatorship in any respect, regardless of what many right and left wing writers and journalists and ‘intellectuals’ purport today. almost all of those people who rant and rave about 1980 coup were members of right or left wing political factions at that time, and they got apprehended.
- Posted by unity100`“August Syndrome” has bitten westerners from their worries about how Nabucco pipeline project - a pipeline from the Caspian Sea carrying gas through Turkey to the West to avoid the traditional route through Russia and its satellites - would be jeopardized by the independence of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia. Such Syndrome can be seen in the history - invasion of Iraq – for creating collective security and safeguards from Weapons of Mass Destruction.
- Posted by andrey2) 1492 is a number that S.Ossetian officials insist on. 133 is just what the Red Cross have managed to identify.
133 - that is the number of identified corps.
“S.Ossetian officials” - which are Kremlin puppets, can insist upon whatever number they choose - but unless they have some proof to show - their arguments will be valid only for the Russian biased audience.
I do not think there is “a normative of victims”, to follow by the Russian agressors when they feel like killing and looting. Any number would go.
The point is that the officials manipulated the information about the number of casualities, as they did with all other information. They can not be trusted, and they are not.
- Posted by Angela4) No it is not true. There are many witnesses to it (including US citizens).
You mean the interviewed on the FOX channel “US citizens” - a 12 years girl and her aunt? The interview, which was later manipulated by the Russian TV?
By the way, the mentioned “US citizen” have earlier lied to the US Immigration, and for this particular reason was even deported from the US in 1996.
Once a lier, always a lier.
- Posted by AngelaAlex,
You just called me a lier - still, I insist that Russia have never had a peacekeeping mandate from the UN, or any other international organisation. (Of course, if we do not consider HAMAS and Hesbolah international peacekeeping organisations). You seem to be pretty sure of the contrary, if so, please check once again the above claim —
3) You’re lying again, - Russia does have mandate from UN and among 3 peacekeeping battalions one was from Georgia.
— and search on the internet for the UN resolution which provided Russia with a peacekeeping mandate in South Ossetia. You will not find it, because it never existed. So, I will repeat my point - THE RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN OSSETIA WAS NOT LEGITIMATE.
The only UN involvement in Georgia was UNOMIG -the observing (not peacekeeping!) mission in Abhazia (not Ossetia!).
You lied about this particular issue like you lied about everything else in your posts here. But, I hope, your lies are less efficient with better informed western audiences, who are able to look for information by themselves, instead of just believing what Russian propagandists tell them.
- Posted by AngelaSome corrections to Myra McDonald:
“Maskirovka” in Russian means “a disguise” or “a camouflage”, and certainly not a chess term.
Crimea was a Russian territory since 13-th century and just in 1959 Nikita Khrushchev decided to give it to Ukraine in commemoration of 300-th anniversary of Ukraine joining Russian Empire (seeking protection from Poland, btw).
- Posted by AlexHello Angela (aka Kate) changing names in blogs makes me dizzy. I don’t even wannna know your real name.
It’s pretty sad that you have resorted to lies. Hope that you aer not a hired blogger.
Reluctantly I wasted my time to check you claims.
1) I couldn’t find such article in the reference you supplied. None of witnesses have ever doubt that Georgia was shelling Tskhinvali on Aug.7. So, the answer to your first question is, - NO, it’s a lie.
2) 1492 is a number that S.Ossetian officials insist on. 133 is just what the Red Cross have managed to identify. Nevertheless, I think that 133 civilian deaths is enough to justify Russian actions. How about 30,000 refugees? There is not a single confirmed civilian killed by Russian army (btw., your language is inappropriate here). So, civilian casualties S.Ossetia - 133-1492, Georgia - they do not separate civilians from soldiers at bodycount, probably - 0.
Although you lie about 40,000 civilians deaths in Chechnya (that was a number of refugees), but I admit that Gorbachev-Eltsin’s inept moves in Chechnya makes nowadays Russian government’s moral ground a bit shaken.
3) You’re lying again, - Russia does have mandate from UN and among 3 peacekeeping battalions one was from Georgia.
4) No it is not true. There are many witnesses to it (including US citizens).
5) It took two days for Russian army to overpower Georgian forces in Tskhinvali.
And S. Ossetia rebelled, when in 1991 Z.Gamsahurdia (not sure about correct spelling) decided to remove their autonomy by force. Russia did not arm anyone, at the time Russian government had their hands full with crisis and Chechnya.
- Posted by Alex4. Is this true that most of the civilian buildings of the town of Tskhinvali were destroyed even before Russian reinforcement has arrived from Russia?
The western reader would have known that, if western media representatives were not restricted from going to the town of Tskhinvali by the Russian Red Army. What are you, Russians, hiding in the town of Tskhinvali? Is it the truth that the city was not destroyed as much as you claimed? Is it another lie, compared to the one about 2000 civilians, which proved to be 133?
5. What would you do (were you a military general) if you need to protect your solders and civilian citizens of your country? Don’t you think that Russian swift reinforcement has prevented even more victims? Georgian forces has just stepped back as it was useless to fight. So actually the long running bloody turmoil has been prevented.
The point is that as a military general you had neither the legal right to be there, nor the authority to protect whoever by invading and loooting another country. There are hundreds of ways to protect your citizens (including the ones living on your own territory) without shooting the innocent civilians, citizens of another country.
As a peacekeeper, you have the mission to enforce a ceasefire, not the mission to protect the side which you think to be “the good guys”. Georgians would have never applied force if the Russians wouldn’t have armed the ossetians and encouraged them to shoot upon georgian villages since early 90s.
It is Russia who started this bloody turmoil - long before the 8th of August.
- Posted by Angela1. Was it the case that Georgian military troops were the one who attacked Tskhinvali (South Ossetia) on August 7th 2008? (by the way it is even admitted by “The Economist” in a very “anti-Russian” article, but this they couldn’t argue [See The Economist August 23-29, 2008 p. 23].
No, it is not. You can see the articles in Komsomol’skaia pravda (a Russian newspaper, http://www.kp.ru) in the week commencing 1 August. One of the articles was entitled “Ossetia ready to attack georgian towns”. In another, Kokoity was very proud of an attack of ossetians over georgians. He was also saying that there are 30 thousand ossetians who are ready for war with Georgia. What you are saying is pure soviet styled lie.
2. Is this true that lots of civilians has been murdered on that day? (August 7th)
Although the newly Soviet propaganda manipulated the figure of 2000 civilians murdered, later it appeared that only 133 corpes were identified. This is less then the civilians killed by Russian army of barbarians and looters in Georgian cities of Gori and Poti. But this figure of 2000 was used as an excuse for the military intervention in Georgia.
I would also remind you of 40 thousand civilians killed in Cechenya, and about the city of Groznyi, which was also heavily attacked by heavy artillery.
3. Is this true that Russian peace-keeping troops (who has the authority from UN) has been attacked and murdered as well?
The Russian troops in Ossetia NEVER had the UN peacekeeping mandate, neither they had a mandate from any other international organisation. Moreover, Georgian Parliament have always seen them as an occupation force, and demanded many times that they should leave its territory. They were NOT peacekeepers nither according to the letter of the law, nor to the spirit of the law, as they were NEVER neutral, and were taking the side of ossetians and arming them. The “peacekeepers” in Georgia were always an occupation force, and what happened in August have only provided a proof for that. They were in fact, “war keepers” - doing everything possible to keep the conflict alive.
By the way, UN peacekeepers are often attacked and killed in many places of the world, and NEVER this was seen as a good enough reason to violate the borders of a souvereign state.
Even if the West is not perfect, it acts from good will and it provides for solutions.
Russia wants to copy the West, but it has no capacity to act as a global policemen. Instead, it acts like a global bully and alchoolic, and provides the whole world with a caricature of what the West has done in Kosovo or in Iraq.
Russia has no other argument except “Do it like they do it on Discovery channel”.
- Posted by Angela