Russia’s bear-paw swipe at Georgia has got many people drawing comparisons with the Cold War, but personally I like to look for parallels in the 19th century.
At the time the faultlines between Russian and British imperial interests ran from the Balkans through the Crimea and the Caucasus to Central Asia and Afghanistan. That is remarkably similar to some of the faultlines creating upheavals today.
Angered by western support for the independence of Kosovo in the Balkans, Russia is at loggerheads with NATO over Georgia in the Caucasus. The row over Georgia has raised fears Russia may halt vital transit of NATO cargoes to Afghanistan – though this has been denied by Moscow – threatening the U.S.-led campaign against al Qaeda and the Taliban. Such is the geographical sweep of the world’s problems, that British commentator Simon Jenkins even suggested we may be drifting towards a new global war.
So what are the lessons of history? And what can we learn about what Russia’s motives really are in the current crisis?
According to Lawrence James’s history of the British Raj, the Russians in the 19th century were experts at applying in war and diplomacy a technique adapted from a chess manoeuvre known as a “Maskirovka”. This aims to deceive your opponent into expecting an attack in one place in order to gain strategic advantage elsewhere. In particular, he says, they tried to trick the British into fearing a Russian invasion of India to divert their attention so that Russia itself could focus on securing its European flank.
The Russians considered this gambit during the Crimean war when Britain and its allies fought Russia for control of the Black Sea (the scene of tensions today between U.S. and Russian ships off the Georgian coast) — eventually driving the Russians out of the port of Sebastopol in 1855 (now known as Sevastopol in Ukraine and leased to Moscow as the base of its Black Sea fleet). It seems history has a way of repeating itself when it comes to choosing its faultlines.
They tried it 20 years later, prompting Britain to invade Afghanistan in 1878 to secure a buffer state between Russia and India. It was Britain’s second attempt to take over Afghanistan and like its earlier invasion from British India ended in humiliation and defeat. But then history has repeated itself so often when it comes to unsuccessful invasions of Afghanistan that it’s a wonder that any foreign army would choose to set foot in the country ever again.
Reading between the lines of James’s account, it’s easy to reach the conclusion that western powers — from the old British empire to the United States of today – have so consistently underestimated Russia’s sense of vulnerability on its European flank that they have misread the signals on other fronts to the point of making foolish counter-moves of their own. Indeed James says one of the few rulers of British India not to have fallen for Maskirovka adopted a policy of “masterly inactivity”.
Perhaps time to take a long hard look at what matters to Russia, and to work out what it is trying to achieve, rather than interpreting its every move as a potential step towards a new Cold War?
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Coming from the region, I would perhaps suggest that it would be timely for Europe to intercede and bring the parties to a negotiating table: there needs to be a cooling off period, and U.S. activities in the region have not been helpful to the region at large. Note that Russians and Georgians have lived side by side for centuries and are close in culture, religion, world view and such; once the dust settles I am sure they will find a path forward to peace with dignity.
- Posted by Andre ZI do agree with the comments, and even would add, that there are in my view some very similar elements to those that faced Germany between wars, Russia was forced to make significant commercial concessions in its bid to join the WTO, it lost strategic territory to NATO, its influence in Central Asia reduced, in other words it was boxed in politically, militarly, and commercially by the West on all its flanks.
Today its is willing to flatten the side of the box at whatever costs, in short it does not care what Europe or the USA might think or might do, it is flattening the box. In flattening this box, China,India, Syria, SudanNorth Korea, Iran and others are of greater tactical importance than any given Western European
country.
I think the West needs to stop playing and step back and look at the board, before grave mistakes are made. The error of the Georgian President was very grave, he let the bear out of the cage. North Korea is now misbehaving, who else will follow suit. They need Russia as a bargaining piece, Russia needs them in breaking down the walls of this box.
Basil Fletcher,
- Posted by Basil FletcherKingston,
Jamaica W.I.
I think you are all misguided and misinformed.
- Posted by HalThe United States and the 200 families that run this world have been manipulating countries and their governments for decades!
The US made China what it is today by inventing and building companies there, so that they can be the Worlds importer, which they are today!
Every war that we have been in, has been bought by the US meaning we have funded both sides!
Saddam, Usama, Mao, you name it. We put them in power, gave them the weapons and when they went rogue, we killed them. All for profit. Mr.Bennett is not long winded and rambling on. He makes good points. My point is,is that you all need to learn some real history instead of what was fed to you in the government controlled education system.
Am informed public is a dangerous public and I am not afraid of most of the people that I meet because they are very uninformed.
It’s time for everyone to wake up!
Just a little remark about David Khabuliani’s comment.
- Posted by AlexeyWhy do you deprive ossetian and abhazian people the right to live and to be free? It is well known that freedom of person or a group of persons end where begins freedom of others.
“Ricochet”!!!
- Posted by S St LaurentOpinion from the “region Russia (USSR) once occupied for decades” or Georgia: all big emperies and conquerors of the continent fought and some times “occupied for decades” my country but those sink into oblivion (and Russia will) when Georgia counts thousands of years and will survive Russians prolonged agony too.
- Posted by Maia KhelashviliI do not understand about what you here speak.
- Posted by ch3o3hUS has put the weapon to Georgia through Turkey
US have trained the Georgian armies.
Georgia has attacked Ossetia.
Ossetia has asked Russia to interfere. R
ussia has interfered and has released Ossetia from Georgian army.
These are the facts.
And about what you speak - delirium.
it’s funny that some gentlemen said russian should not dictate his neighbor’s friendship matters, but as a matter of fact uncle sam not only dictated and controlled friends of his neighbors, but controlled and dictated his neighbor’s internal business for decades. this is the beautiful logic of the double standard of the uncle sam followers. please explain why us needs 170 military bases over 140 countries? what for? george orwell made it very clear, all animals are equal, but some are more equal. all mankind is equal, but being amercian is more equal on this planet!!
- Posted by hargawDear Mr. Bennett, thank you for the interesting and historically accurate comment. As for those stating that Russia has done these and those much more evil things to other nations… Well, they are welcome to give examples. The only difference between Russian and Western behaviour on the world playground is that Russia is quite clumsy and naive sometimes, unlike bold and solid US or cunning UK.
- Posted by YuryNow Kosovo,Abkhazia and South ossetia are independent states.
- Posted by rubenBob, your piece was excellent and, very relevant. Russia has apparently learnt a great deal from the United States. It cannot however, rely upon a compliant media to report its actions, except at home. This will be perhaps the greatest weakness in an otherwise very strong position. Though I hear that they are reliant upon oil to further their strategic goals throughout the next twenty years. After that their importance is destined to shrink rapidly as this resource runs out. Still, what is likely to take place must surely bring an inevitable balancing of American power. Your eloquent words on the dangers posed by the United States are well chosen. However the danger they present are also in cultural, social and environmental factors grave indeed. As brutal as Russia can be and looks increasingly like being, we can at least console ourselves to some extent that the iniquitous aims of the American right are likely to be blunted for some time to come.
- Posted by AllanI am a little concerned that the article’s emphasis was on the West’s need to divine the intentions of Russia. Perhaps if Russia chose to be open in their intentions and objectives, if Russia accepted that playing the maskirovka game invites unreasoned and irrational responses, genuine diplomacy could proceed.
- Posted by E. Van CourtWell, speaking about what Russia’s behaviour should have been, I think that Russia is learning the ‘good old american way’, which is: 1st we provoke the “victim”(in our case, Georgia) to war, which the victim obviously can’t win, then we tear apart it’s territory by supporting any national- separatist movements and block any UN decisions that goes against this, while launching a full-scale propaganda war…
- Posted by Leoall about mental differences: georgians build free and tollerant open society, once one tastes a freedom, there is no way back… so russian leaders try to keep own people and all arround as they are now: slaves, shovinists dreaming of III Rome… america deserved world leadership breaking down such attempts of russians, nazzis and others… I think
- Posted by David KhabulianiWars only serve the weak minded, and we humans ruin our own existance.
Russia and the US serve no one with another cold war, or a hot one for that matter.
Enough of the war like clatter..it serves no purpose
- Posted by TroyDear Bob Bennet, you have posted a very good comment well prepared by Russian intelligence services. I will not be surprised if your or your boss’ name is Ivanov, Serdyukov or the like.
The US behavior is by far not the most correct, but this shall not be treated as the base giving right to Russians to generate conflicts in the nations they pretend to be a friend to.
- Posted by IvanMr Bennett seems to echo the sentiments of Lord Toynbee regarding the post WW2 place of the US in the world, ie taking on the mantle of Rome. Toynbee referred to the US taking on the role of Prince Metternich. All of this may well turn out to be spot on. However, there is always mega-blame to be shared in most modern conflicts.
- Posted by Paul YoungsPerhaps if instead of looking at the 19th century for clues to Russia’s sense of the world you go back to the pre-Metternich Europe and look at the Russian invasion of Poland. Russia did not like the choice of the Polish diet in 1733 for the crown (Leszczyski) so they invaded and put their own puppet in place (Augustus III). The opportunity was there and Ostermann seized it just as Putin seized the opportunity and dealt a political defeat to his rivals. Augustus III was supported by France and Sweden and neither had the support inside Poland to hold out against the Russian aggression. Today Putin does not want Sashkavilli’s Western slant just as Ostermann did not want Augustus III and his pro-Western slant. Same story line and it seems that the result may very well end up the same.
the situation in the georgia black sea region is so serious with mis-steps by the USA state dept. in it’s support for a vocal anti-Russian Georgia, that no one will even comment on it. It must be stated here and now that the United States has no right to tell the USSR or Russia what it can or cannot do in a region Russia (USSR) once occupied for decades. The Americans are eager to aid allies and friends but are not able to vocally show disdain for Georgian political leaders who openly try to embroil the USA and Russia in to a shooting war. Do the Leaders of Georgia actually believe the Russians will ignore the bellicosity of Georgia if it is engaged in war with the USA ? even if it is minor battles and not a nuclear war ?… The USA has made many mistakes in securing an ally in a former territory of the USSR, and it is now paying the price for this ignorance of regional affairs. The next weeks and months are severe and close to serious wars in not only the Black Sea area but also a Russian invasion of Poland the moment USA missiles are landed in Poland, for defensive use or not Russia will not sit idly by. Once the Russian invade Poland they will take the American missiles if possible ( for intelligence purposes ) and then agree to ceasefires and treaties but make no mistake, Russia will agree to pull back but will try to occupy a 12 mile wide buffer zone on Polish terrritory stretching the entire north to south border of Poland with the Russian Army firmly entrenched and occupying bordering nations to the East nearest Russian soil…All because the USA state dept believed it can do anything it pleases in the post 911 world… Time will show it can not…Russia may not be well known to the USA but the Russian Govt and the Russian People must be respected. The sons of Russia in uniform are not to be viewed any differently than the sons of America in uniform . If the world and Russia and America can achieve this distinction and view we can have long term peace between the USA and the Russian People. This is my hope and I have outlined what will occur the moment missiles arrive in Poland from the USA. That is my nightmare. Peace to All.
- Posted by Cynara DerrWell that’s nice. The first comment is a long rambling totally off topic screed about the evils of the US.
The US has done bad things. It’s gotten away with lots of them. Russia has done far far worse, as has China. The West is morally imperfect, but it’s head and shoulders above the alternatives.
Regarding what Russia wants. While understanding is beneficial, It’s tiresome accommodating the craziest person in the room. Russia doesn’t have the right to dictate to it’s neighbour who they can be friends with. It doesn’t have the right to bomb, seize or otherwise molest pipelines and oil shipments that compete with it’s commercial interests.
Russia needs to “grow up” and learn to behave like a modern civilized nation.
- Posted by BorThe United States supported and in many cases engendered every right wing military dictatorship in the world after the end of the Second World War. I refer to Indonesia, Greece, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, Haiti, Turkey, the
- Posted by Bob BennettPhilippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, and, of course, Chile. The horror the United States inflicted upon Chile in 1973 can never be purged and can never be forgiven. Hundreds of thousands of deaths took place throughout these countries. Did they take place? And are they in all cases attributable to US foreign policy? The answer is yes they did take place and they are attributable to American foreign policy. But you wouldn’t know it. It never happened. Nothing ever happened. Even while it was happening it wasn’t happening. It didn’t matter. It was of no interest. The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few
people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty,
highly successful act of hypnosis. I put to you that the United States is without doubt the greatest show on the road. Brutal, indifferent, scornful and ruthless it may be but it is also very clever. As a salesman it is out
on its own and its most saleable commodity is self love. It’s a winner. Listen to all American presidents on television say the words, ‘the American people’, as in the sentence, ‘I say to the American people it is time to
pray and to defend the rights of the American people and I ask the American people to trust their president in the action he is about to take on behalf of the American people. It’s a scintillating stratagem. Language is actually employed to keep thought at bay. The words ‘the American people’ provide a truly voluptuous cushion of reassurance. You don’t need to think. Just lie back on the cushion. The cushion may be suffocating your intelligence and your critical faculties but it’s very comfortable. This does not apply of course to the 40 million people living below the poverty line and the 2
million men and women imprisoned in the vast gulag of prisons, which extends across the US. The United States no longer bothers about low intensity conflict. It no longer sees any point in being reticent or even devious. It puts its cards on the table without fear or favour. It quite simply doesn’t give a damn about the United Nations, international law or critical dissent, which it regards as impotent and irrelevant. It also has its own bleating little lamb tagging behind it on a lead, the pathetic and supine Great Britain. The invasion of Iraq was a bandit act, an act of blatant state terrorism, demonstrating absolute contempt for the concept of international law. The invasion was an arbitrary military action inspired by a series of lies upon lies and gross manipulation of the media and therefore of the public; an act intended to consolidate American military and economic control of the Middle East masquerading - as a last resort - all other justifications having failed to justify themselves - as liberation. A formidable assertion of military force responsible for the death and
mutilation of thousands and thousands of innocent people. The US have brought torture, cluster bombs, depleted uranium, innumerable acts of random murder, misery, degradation and death to the Iraqi people and call it
‘bringing freedom and democracy to the Middle East’ How many people do you have to kill before you qualify to be described as a mass murderer and a war criminal? One hundred thousand? More than enough, I would have thought.
Therefore it is just that Bush and Blair be arraigned before the International Criminal Court of Justice. Death in this context is irrelevant. Both Bush and Blair place death well away on the back burner. At least 100,000 Iraqis were killed by American bombs and missiles before the Iraq insurgency began. These people are of no moment. Their deaths don’t exist. They are blank. They are not even recorded as being dead. ‘We don’t do body counts,’ said the American general Tommy Franks. I have said earlier that the United States is now totally frank about putting its cards on the table. That is the case. Its official declared policy is now defined as ‘full spectrum dominance’. That is not my term, it is theirs. ‘Full spectrum dominance’ means control of land, sea, air and space and all attendant resources. The United States now occupies almost 750 military installations throughout the world in 140 countries, with the honourable exception of
Sweden. We don’t quite know how they got there but they are there all right. Poland is now just another US pawn. US defense contractors are set to make
many billions of dollars from the US Poland missile defense deal.