Russia’s bear-paw swipe at Georgia has got many people drawing comparisons with the Cold War, but personally I like to look for parallels in the 19th century.
At the time the faultlines between Russian and British imperial interests ran from the Balkans through the Crimea and the Caucasus to Central Asia and Afghanistan. That is remarkably similar to some of the faultlines creating upheavals today.
Angered by western support for the independence of Kosovo in the Balkans, Russia is at loggerheads with NATO over Georgia in the Caucasus. The row over Georgia has raised fears Russia may halt vital transit of NATO cargoes to Afghanistan – though this has been denied by Moscow – threatening the U.S.-led campaign against al Qaeda and the Taliban. Such is the geographical sweep of the world’s problems, that British commentator Simon Jenkins even suggested we may be drifting towards a new global war.
So what are the lessons of history? And what can we learn about what Russia’s motives really are in the current crisis?
According to Lawrence James’s history of the British Raj, the Russians in the 19th century were experts at applying in war and diplomacy a technique adapted from a chess manoeuvre known as a “Maskirovka”. This aims to deceive your opponent into expecting an attack in one place in order to gain strategic advantage elsewhere. In particular, he says, they tried to trick the British into fearing a Russian invasion of India to divert their attention so that Russia itself could focus on securing its European flank.
The Russians considered this gambit during the Crimean war when Britain and its allies fought Russia for control of the Black Sea (the scene of tensions today between U.S. and Russian ships off the Georgian coast) — eventually driving the Russians out of the port of Sebastopol in 1855 (now known as Sevastopol in Ukraine and leased to Moscow as the base of its Black Sea fleet). It seems history has a way of repeating itself when it comes to choosing its faultlines.
They tried it 20 years later, prompting Britain to invade Afghanistan in 1878 to secure a buffer state between Russia and India. It was Britain’s second attempt to take over Afghanistan and like its earlier invasion from British India ended in humiliation and defeat. But then history has repeated itself so often when it comes to unsuccessful invasions of Afghanistan that it’s a wonder that any foreign army would choose to set foot in the country ever again.
Reading between the lines of James’s account, it’s easy to reach the conclusion that western powers — from the old British empire to the United States of today – have so consistently underestimated Russia’s sense of vulnerability on its European flank that they have misread the signals on other fronts to the point of making foolish counter-moves of their own. Indeed James says one of the few rulers of British India not to have fallen for Maskirovka adopted a policy of “masterly inactivity”.
Perhaps time to take a long hard look at what matters to Russia, and to work out what it is trying to achieve, rather than interpreting its every move as a potential step towards a new Cold War?
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I think it is finally time to stand up and be counted. for far too long the politicians in the US, and latterly in the UK and right-leaning governments in the EU, have taken it for granted that we in the west will automatically accept their word. This time they conveniently gave their blessing to the aggressor in Georgia, avoiding any mention of his criminal act which started this off. Not only lies are dangerous in this context, what is simply written out of history because it is strategically inconvenient is also, highly dangerous. I would have thought after the debacle of Iraq the US and UK politicians in particular would have realised we can see through their schemes. The times when we blindly accepted what they said because we happen to be within their sphere of influence, are over.
- Posted by AllanTHIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION IN THE WORLD TODAY THAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED RIGHT NOW. Why does the USA have almost 750 foreign military war bases spread across 140 countries throughout the world??? What are these bases there for??? Why are they there??? Does the US intend to have a military war base in every country in the world??? Is there a US military war base in your country that you don’t know about??? What is their goal??? World domination??? Why are we all sitting back and allowing this to happen??? The next US military war base will probably be in Georgia or Ukraine to stir up more trouble. We all better wake up real fast
- Posted by RobHere is a simple fix. Deport any “Russian”, ethnic or otherwise, that is unwilling to recognize the authority of the government of the nation in which they live. If they don’t like it let them move to Russia! Neither Georgia, Ukraine or Moldavia should allow itself to be put in a position where Russian “citizens” can compromise that nations territorial integrity. There should be no such thing as “breakaway regions”. If these “separatists” are unwilling to renounce Russia and submit to the governing body of that nation then they do not deserve to live in that nation. Russia is intentionally stoking that fire by encouraging its “citizens” to rebel against the governments of those nations who step out of line with Russia. These “Russian citizens” living across eastern Europe need to be forced to make a choice because neither they nor Russia can be allowed to have it both ways.
- Posted by VaughnIf the russians want to play this game,let’s remind them that they have a lot more to loose than the West.Russia is a country where dozens of different cultures and nationalities are still yearning for recognition and ultimately independence from the mujiks.Has anybody heard about Chechenia lately?
- Posted by wllmsgndMr. Bob Bennett’s diatribe sounded like a pathetic piece of communist and despot propaganda that we’ve heard before. For much of the latter half of the 20th century, communist and leftist, self-elected leaders around the world used the same anti-West, anti-American rhetoric in order to brainwash the little people into supporting their causes and legitimizing their regimes. How can we forget the millions of deaths caused by Stalins and Mao, the brutality of systematic agression inflicted on former Soviet satellite countries, the material and human cost of proxy wars around the world, the toppling of old world order to be replaced by ruthless communistic systems, on and on? Sadly, the same mentality exists today and in the minds of failed ex-Soviet politicians looking for opportunity to revenge what they somehow thought they’ve been wronged by the West.
The US is not perfect, but it offers the better alternative and a force of good versus the evils of the world as well as those who are too blind to see otherwise. Why would anybody be afraid of the United States? Only those with a lot to lose which they didn’t deserve to gain in the first place. Even China, which at times does not agree with the US, ultimately would make a wise choice in becoming a collaborative partner, rather than being a bully in this day and age.
- Posted by TrevorRussia is in a good position to call the shots. the “new Russia” has emerged as a stronger power, europe needs its resources and energy, Russia carries a lot of american debt, Russia has lots of oil, gold, diamonds, investors, know how, ect. America is bogged down in Iraq, Afganistan, Iran is on the back burner for America, and russian custom is to sacrifice millions for a national cause. Hmmmmm. Now is a good time for Russian
- Posted by rlsaggression, however, why? Who would want to manage these former warsaw pact loser countries, and who would to waste energy trying to do so when big profits could be made selling energy to everyone. This new wealth could be invested in Russia, bring russia up to first world status, then these border countries would WANT TO JOIN mother russia again. Much like hitler did in WWII. After that, crush all pockets of resistance as America slips deeper and deeper into chaos. Easy. AND, “mother russia” looks like a loving country with lots of new wealth and just wanting its children to come home. Read a book, “48 laws of power” by robert green.
Happy trails, one and all!
I see, people start to open there eyes. I agree with Maximilian - when will politians follow?
- Posted by Russian@Sergey
Very good post!
It is interesting to me that the western press - after a few days of pro-georgian emotionality now starts to decribe the real facts in and about Ossetia, the sufferings and feelings of the ossetian and abkhasian people and how they see the situation.
So we now have a situation in which western politicians (not all!) still keep on talking about “russian aggression” and “georgian integrity” while the press and the people are far more close to reality - especially about Mr. Saakashvili and his Washington friends.
I really wonder who will be the first western politician to speak out clearly that Georgia is not a victim without guilt, that both sides made mistakes and a fair compromise had to be reached.
- Posted by Maximilian10 interceptor missiles in Poland by 2012, another 10 by 2015, then a few years later with the site manned by 100 US servicemen they can conceal nuclear missiles. Who in their right mind would trust republican neo-cons after they invaded the sovereign country of Iraq under false pretenses with no UN mandate and caused the deaths of over 100,000 civilians??? Russia basically just wants to be left alone. The US has almost 750 foreign military war bases around the world controlled by GW Bush a man with an IQ of 92. Now that is dangerous. The president of Georgia was trained by the US CIA and came to power through the so called Rose revolution instigated by US billionaire George Soros. Russia basically would like to live in peace and not be encircled by US missiles or US militiamen in Georgia. I believe that’s a fair call, especially considering the US feel the same way about their country. But now we are going to witness a massive unstoppable nuclear arms race. Russia will install nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad, Belarus, Syria and Iran. They will arm their submarines and warplanes with nuclear missiles. With nuclear weapons everywhere Al Qaeda may be in a position to acquire atom bombs & wreak havok by sending nuclear suicide bombers all across Europe and with no border security could kill millions of people. That is the war of the future and no missile site in Poland will be able to stop it. The best way to deal with this problem is to disband NATO as agreed after the fall of the USSR and set up a new security organization that encompasses all of Europe including Russia and China. The Georgian president must go. We don’t need loose cannons running around that area. Russia is Georgia’s neighbour therefore Georgia needs a president that promotes good policies and strong friendship. The US should stay out of Russia’s backyard and deal with problems closer to home.
- Posted by RobMy university degrees are in international politics. I did thesis work on the cohesion of the Russian Federation with a specific focus on the Chechnya conflict while living in Finland. I’m not going to go into points regarding the rights and wrongs of Russia’s actions and history. It is has been made clear to me once again after reading the comments left here that facts and reason can be distorted to suit any taste, no matter how distateful the taste or the distortions. I want to simply make a strong declaration that I hope sinks in to those who wish to cripple the will of westerners: if Russia and NATO fall into a proxy war over Russia’s actions, I’m joining the US military and demanding that they send me to the front lines. And I am more than sure that many other westerners - North Americans and Europeans - will do the same. No matter how and how much Putin spins his actions and ambitions. He thinks nobody in the West is willing to fight; he is wrong.
- Posted by Houston - an EU and US citizenreply to ET — I am giving the impression I have of how the Russians will perceive the missiles…I am aware of the difference of the 1962 era missiles and the anti-missile systems the USA wants to place in Poland now. The Russians will not look upon it as anything but provocation and a way to place secret missiles in Poland. The Russian view will be always suspicious and attempting to stop any encroachment on their territory defense strategies which the Russians assume any missiles in Poland will represent, whether their view is accurate or totally wrong.
- Posted by Cynara Derr— Cynara Derr
I think most are missing the point of the article in that Russia is strutting and pounding its chest but little more, using this bravado as a bargaining chip. I would hope most people would understand that to imply “we” shouldn’t be following suit and reacting. Yet all I hear are calls for reaction. Let Russia rot in the stinch of its failures instead of giving them “victories”. Corruption is a way of life in Russia, and they have inflation problems on the horizon. The West “starved” the wall down in the 70s and 80s, and we will do it again. Just watch and wait.
Anytime a US-backed country has any kind of a crisis, the US will take the blame. Why? Cause its kinda pointless to point fingers at Russia, China, etc. These countries don’t care what others think, and usually won’t allow their own people to disagree with them. Its kinda like giving a terminal cancer patient a life sentence in jail. So exactly what kind of a “punishment” could we give a country that is its own worst nightmare?
How about a consolation hug (and in a few years, probably a loan)?
- Posted by PtrizzleCynara, There is no way in hell Russia will resort to Military action against Poland because of Defensive Missles (Anti-Missle System) being put in place by NATO. Big difference when compared to Offensive Nuclear Strike capability in Cuba circa 1962. Poland is part of NATO. Any action against Poland is an action against the organization. It might help if Russia would step up to the plate and pressure Iran for the rest of us. The missle defense system might not be needed. But Noooooooooo, they want to peddle their Military Hardware, and support the mad man Ahmadinejad.
- Posted by ETPoland may accept security cooperation from the USA (in the form of missile shields etc), and this would be their own issue. By driving a wedge between such cooperation- by saying Russian military power on such missile sites may be warranted- the Kremlin and FSB (they are one and the same) hope to instill a sense of fear on the Polish side of the talks and (by extension) to the American side to dampen their push for hardware.
This Russian administration was raised with this sort of thinking, and it is rather early to say that the Americans are swallowing it whole.
- Posted by Peter MaitlandAs an American I can say that sometimes I am dismayed by the ignorance of my fellow yanks. We invaded Granada for basically the same thing that Russia went into those regions for: Protect Americans (Russians). We illegally invaded Panama, and ended up being duped into Iraq because of supposed WMD issues. Then the west decides that Kosovo MUST be independent. Russia warned the west that it was Pandora’s box…and it was. Now we have Georgia invading the automonous regions (albeit still part of Georgia) and Russia stepping in. Very little has been said of the timing of the invasion by Georgia (Olympics et al) or of the arbitrary use of Grad rockets on civilians etc. They should be admonished for this mess. That being said, Russia needs to stop the intimidation and accept that “THEIR” form of democracy will not work with some of their neighbors including Poland, Ukraine and Georgia. I can guarantee that the EU and NATO will not sit idle if an episode like this happens in the Crimea. If anything Russia has pushed Georgia and Ukraine closer to NATO and the west. The best thing now is diplomacy, and hitting the corrupt oligarchs hard in the wallet & ego….embargo Bentley, Porsche, and Mercedes from going into the country.
- Posted by Donny BakerPeople are here showing rational and reasonable assessments of the situation.
- Posted by Cynara DerrIf the USA places missiles in Poland it will be the most provocative mistake since Russia long ago tried to aid Cuba with the wrong type of weapon– namely long range missles that can carry nuclear warheads. The USA is making many mistakes in the region as if Russia no longer exists. This again is a mistake. My letter last night was affirmed today with the Russian President asserting that Military force may have to be used if USA Missiles arrive in Poland. I am the one who understands these matters. Am I not to be believed ? Trust me and re- read my comments at top of this report. You can see what will happen soon if NATO does not demand the USA act more responsibly and with less arrogance. Thank You, please ask your nation’s newspapers to print my letters so that all may see my words. I am an American Citizen . - - Cynara Derr
Russia, like the U.S., has already come to know that the world board is not akin to a chess board; with the latter, moves are made via a formal structure and nullified otherwise; with the former, such formal and pre-determined rules of engagement are actual impediments to propagating certain policies, e.g. unfavourable policies to the masses would not become actual if within formal engagements. Advantage is the name of the game- as it always has been- and the disadvantage is making mistakes out of kindness or consideration. This is the mainstay of the post-Soviet think tank- capitalistic, aggressive, and fearful of any coalition that may destabilize its SOI. We call this full-circle.
- Posted by Peter MaitlandLOOK! Open you eyes everyone! Go to Ossetia and ask the people there who the agressor is! People were saved by Russians! Russians in Moscow opened their doors in front of the refugees, let them sleep in their own small flats! And after that Russia is an agressor??? People in Ossetia are cheering RUSSIA but not the US for help! Why isn’t this shown on our TV? HAH? It was just a cheap provocation from our country and I feel ashamed for our “government”. Just go there and you’ll see everything there with your own eyes!
- Posted by FerryDear Sirs,
- Posted by SergeyI’m a Russian Citizen and I have nothing to do with Russian intelligence services. I would like to raise a few questions having read this article and some other articles of the UK and US press.
But before that I would like to say a few words about myself and Russians in general.
I have a strong feeling that European and US people have quite wrong impression about Russians.
We should not forget that Cold War has ended decades ago and generations has been changed. None of common people in Russia likes or wants wars, as I’m sure none of US or European citizens as well. There is no ambition from Russia and from Russians to become a super-power and rule the world. I believe such statements in the press looks quite silly and even funny for intelligent people both in Russia and in US or Europe. Such statements looks like taken from James Bond movies (I like this movie a lot, but I don’t treat it seriously as this is just a movie). People would like to work, cooperate with each other. People likes to travel. Russians like to travel to Europe and US, and there is a lot of foreigners visiting Moscow and other cities in Russia. If you have such friends - ask them, do they still believe that Russians are that evil?
I believe that the issue is with the foreign policy between the governments and certain interests of particular politicians. So let us all be very careful judging the newspapers we read and weight the real facts that can be sorted out from the press. Otherwise we will become a victims of mind manipulation.
Don’t you think that recent articles in US and European press were, say, a bit one sided? So coming back to the questions that I would like to raise… here they are for your consideration.
1. Was it the case that Georgian military troops were the one who attacked Tskhinvali (South Ossetia) on August 7th 2008? (by the way it is even admitted by “The Economist” in a very “anti-Russian” article, but this they couldn’t argue [See The Economist August 23-29, 2008 p. 23].
2. Is this true that lots of civilians has been murdered on that day? (August 7th)
3. Is this true that Russian peace-keeping troops (who has the authority from UN) has been attacked and murdered as well?
4. Is this true that most of the civilian buildings of the town of Tskhinvali were destroyed even before Russian reinforcement has arrived from Russia?
5. What would you do (were you a military general) if you need to protect your solders and civilian citizens of your country? Don’t you think that Russian swift reinforcement has prevented even more victims? Georgian forces has just stepped back as it was useless to fight. So actually the long running bloody turmoil has been prevented.
6. Why Georgian forces abandoned so much US weapon? Actually why it was there in that much quantities.
7. Do you know if there were any refugees? (I’m sure, I should help you with the answer)
8. Don’t you think that it is quite strange that Mr. Saakashvili has started to make announcements in the US and European press that Russian tanks has attacked Georgia and its CAPITAL even before Russian tanks has entered into South Ossetia.
… and some more general questions.
9. Why USA is so much interested to see Georgia and Ukraine in NATO?
10. Why does USA need to have anti-missile radar in Poland? Do you really believe that this is because they afraid Iran’s nuclear attack or there was some other reason? (by the way, I’m not a specialist in nuclear physics, but I’m wondering what will happen to nearby environment if say Poland will hit Iran’s nuclear rocket right above their head?)
11. Do you think that military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan were properly justified? (I can remind that the reason for the Attack on Iraq was that US intelligence service reported about nuclear weapon in Iraq. Later it was confirmed by UN investigation that Iraq didn’t have nuclear weapon).
12. Do you think that there is a democracy now in Iraq or Afghanistan? Do you think that common people now live better there?
13. Are common US citizens happy with the results of military operations in Iraq or Afghanistan?
14. Don’t you think that it is a good step taking into account presidency race in US. Do you agree with the fact that people in US now become more afraid of Russians? Don’t you think that this is a good opportunity to unite US nation against an “enemy” and as a result get huge support from the people on elections? Who can benefit from that?
15. Please answer honestly. Those people in US who didn’t like recent military policy in Iraq and Afghanistan, who has suffered from mortgage crises – do you give support to your government in the fight against “evil” Russia? I’m afraid that most of US and Europeans might answer “yes” (I hope that I’m wrong in that but I’m afraid I’m not)
16. Do you think it is normal when Iraq reconstruction tender was won by the company owned by one of the Senior Governmental officers in US who initially took the decision to send troops to Iraq?
And the last comment in term of democracy. Everybody claims that Mr. Saakashvili is a democratic elected president of Georgia. Do you know the fact that Russian TV channels are cut off from broadcasting in Georgia? Do you know that TV channels supporting opposition has been cut off as well?
And as regards Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev. I can assure you being a Russian citizen that the majority of the people did supported Putin during his elections and presidency and majority people do support Mr. Medvedev as newly elected president. I haven’t voted for Mr. Putin myself during the elections (I was voting for Mr. Yavlinskiy) but that doesn’t mean that most of the Russian population do not support either Mr. Putin when he was a president or Mr. Medvedev now. So don’t you think that at least it is not polite from the US and European press to claim that there is a democracy in Georgia and tyranny in Russia. We are about 140 M people in Russia and if most of the population do support their president – isn’t it a democracy? Why it is worse than in Georgia?
And all that recent attempts to compare Putin with Stalin or Hitler - this is just ridiculous! I’m sure that all intelligent and educated people in US and Europe should well understand that. Stalin and Hitler were bustards and evil people who has murdered millions of people who has tortured and spoiled lives of millions of millions of people. As a Russian citizen having been in Europe many times, working in international company, communicating with Americans and Europeans on a daily basis I can assure you that life in Russia is far from that you are reading in most of the articles today. By the way, if to read carefully one can notice that not absolutely all US and European press hates Russia that much.
I can easily admit and fully realize that there a lot of issues in Russia, such as corruption, huge bureaucracy end many other… Actually the same as in other countries for higher or lower extent. But this doesn’t mean that Russians are evil and this doesn’t mean that Russian president was not elected democratically.
So what I’m trying to say is let’s not be one-sided, let’s rely on facts but not rumors and speculations (though it is not that easy).
No normal human would like to live in war or cold war or whatever you call it. Do you think that 140 million Russians are that crazy so they want to fight with all the world, to rule the world?! Come on…
Thank you and sorry for quite a long story
Here’s a little speech I prepared for GW Bush:
- Posted by Bob Bennett Australia‘God is good. God is great. God is good. My God is good. Bin Laden’s God is bad. His is a bad God. Saddam’s God was bad, except he didn’t have one. He was a barbarian. We are not barbarians. We don’t chop people’s heads off. We believe in freedom. So does God. I am not a barbarian. I am the democratically elected leader of a freedom-loving democracy. We are a compassionate society. We give compassionate electrocution and compassionate lethal injection. We are a great nation. I am not a dictator. He is. I am not a barbarian. He is. And he is. They all are. I possess moral authority. You see this fist? This is my moral authority. And don’t you forget it.’