Global News Journal

Sun setting on Merkel coalition?

As the sun started to set on the west side of the Reichstag on Wednesday evening — and perhaps on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right government as well — delegates to the Bundesversammlung (Federal Assembly) began switching to beer from the preferred beverage earlier in the day — coffee, water and apple juice.   There was an unmistakeable air of “Endzeitstimmung” (doomsday atmosphere) on the comfortable rooftop terrace of the historic German parliament building, where the catering is superb and the view of Berlin breathtaking.    The conservative delegates on the Reichstag roof were easy to spot — they were the ones with worried looks on their faces after a couple dozen unidentified “rats” from within their ranks twice failed in votes during the afternoon to give Merkel the votes she needed to get her candidate elected.

The conservatives were drinking their beer and trying to forget the day’s humiliation before going into battle for a third and final round later in the evening.

 ”It was a bit like Germany vs Serbia in the first two rounds,” said David McAllister, a leader in Merkel’s Christian Democrats in Lower Saxony, referring to a 1-0 World Cup loss earlier this month. “But the third round will be more like Germany vs England,” he added with a smile, referring to Germany’s 4-1 win over England on Sunday.   The opposition delegates were also easy to spot on the Reichstag rooftop terrace — they were the ones with smiles on their faces (and beer glasses in their hands) after seeing Merkel humiliated twice by her own coalition. Her candidate, Christian Wulff, fell short of the 623 votes he needed even though there are 644 delegates in the centre-right bloc.

Wulff got 600 in the first round and 615 in the second round. Even if he wins the third round later on Wednesday evening, Merkel has been badly damaged by the debacle.   The question on everyone’s mind is: How can someone lead one of the world’s most important countries if she can’t even keep her own coalition in line?   What is most unsettling for delegates in the centre-right bloc is that they don’t know who the defectors are. It has brought instant comparisons to the beginning of the end of the previous centre-left government of Social Democrats and Greens in 2005.

Early that year, the SPD and Greens were betrayed by someone from their own ranks on three votes in the state assembly of Schleswig-Holstein and state premier Heide Simonis was forced to resign. That humiliation sent tremors through then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s centre-left government and after a similar SPD-Greens government in North Rhine-Westphalia was voted out of power a few months later in May, Schroeder dramatically pulled the plug on his government. He called for snap elections — and ended up losing power to Merkel.   Will Wednesday’s debacle in the Reichstag mark the beginning of the end of Merkel’s reign?

from FaithWorld:

Gunning for Godfried? Belgian abuse probe asks what Danneels knew

Are the Belgian judicial authorities gunning for Godfried? It looks like Cardinal Godfried Danneels, the popular grandfatherly Catholic prelate who stepped down in January as archbishop of Brussels-Mechelen after three decades, is the main target of the incredible "tomb raider" sweeps that shocked the Church last Thursday. The police who swooped down on the diocesan headquarters in Mechelen, Danneels's own apartment nearby and the offices of the Church commission on abuse in Leuven did not suspect the cardinal of abuse himself. But it seems the investigating magistrate behind the raid is convinced that Danneels hushed up cases during his long reign.

The media seem to be too -- just take a look at last Saturday's front page of the Brussels daily De Standaard at the right.

There may be something there. Let's see what the investigators come up with.

Does the magistrate actually think Danneels also crept down to the crypt at St. Rumbold's Cathedral in Mechelen one night and stashed incriminating files in the tombs of his predecessors?  Now we're in Da Vinci Code territory. This would be laughable if it weren't a sign of the Marc Dutroux cloud that hangs over any case like this in Belgium. The Belgian police suspected Dutroux of kidnapping girls in the 1990s and actually inspected his house and missed the dungeon for the girls in the basement. There were huge protests against police incompetence when this came out. Dutroux was arrested and convicted of the murder of four girls. So the police are going to be extra tough and thorough to make sure they don't bungle it again.

The change in tone about Danneels is striking and dates to the April resignation of Bruges Bishop Roger Vangheluwe after admitting he had abused his own nephew. Danneels said at the time that he first learned of Vangheluwe's transgressions only days before they became public, a fact that has been challenged by a Brussels priest, Rik Devillé. In the eight weeks since that shock, 475 people contacted the Church commission on sexual abuse to report their cases. Only 30 cases had been registered with the commission in the previous 10 years and none or almost none with the police. This is a sea change.

That so much information was flowing into the Church commission and so little of it getting out to the judicial authorities seems to have been the trigger for the investigating magistrate following abuse cases to take action. Justice Minister Stefaan De Clerck accused the commission of dragging its feet.

The commission head, Peter Adriaenssens, said it had planned to draw up an initial report on its cases in October. One of the things he had on his agenda was a meeting with Danneels on July 5 to discuss his role. According to Adriaenssens, the cardinal's name came up in about 50 dossiers, not as an abuser, but as someone who knew what was happening.

Japan PM gets face-time with Obama

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who took office earlier this month, hoped to impress voters as he made his debut at a meeting of G8 and G20 leaders in Canada last weekend, but saw media play at home overshadowed by the World Cup and a scandal roiling Japan’s traditional sport of sumo.

Still, Kan did manage to claim one prize from his summit debut – lots of face-time with U.S. President Barack Obama. Kan’s predecessor Yukio Hatoyama quit after just eight months in office in part because he botched up relations with Japan’s biggest ally over the relocation of a U.S. military base on Okinawa. So brief chats with Obama in between sessions, including one on Obama’s love for green tea ice cream, and a full, 30-minute meeting with the U.S. President at the end of his trip should comfort voters. An improvement from a mere 10 minutes Hatoyama was allotted when he met Obama at a nuclear safety summit in April.

Media were super-alert for Kan’s interaction with other leaders, too.  Kan appeared at ease as he talked to Russian Presdient Dmitry Medvedev on their way to an outdoor G8 leaders’ “family photo”. But after the photo, Kan was left standing outside a circle formed by other leaders as they chatted and laughed. “Go, elbow yourself in!” reporters cheered on as they watched footage broadcast into the media centre. But by the time Kan squeezed himself in, leaders had started to disperse and move on.

from Pakistan: Now or Never?:

Pakistan’s policy on Afghanistan: finding the devil in the detail

In the increasingly frenetic debate about what to do about Afghanistan, Antonio Giustozzi has a must-read report on prospects for negotiating with the Taliban. In particular, he offers a rare window into Pakistan's often opaque policy towards Afghanistan by providing the context within which Pakistan might be able to bring the Taliban into a political settlement .

Giustozzi presents a far more nuanced picture than the one commonly assumed, describing significant overlaps between various militant groups - the Tehrik-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP),  the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Muhammad Omar,  the Haqqani network and the Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, with only the latter seen as an independent entity.  (These overlaps are crucial to establishing whether Afghan insurgents could be weakened through a policy of "divide and rule" or whether any negotiations on a settlement would need to involve the Taliban movement, and its leadership, as a whole.) 

"The different networks that comprise the Taliban have somewhat different ideological leanings and allegiances, with some groups being more radical than others, or closer to the Pakistani armed forces and intelligence services, or again closer to trans-national jihadist networks such as al Qaeda," he says.  While the Haqqani network had close ties with the Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, "this closeness is not appreciated by most other Taliban networks, who are either hostile to the Pakistani authorities ... or at the very least are unwilling to be controlled by the Pakistanis.

"In turn, the Haqqani network in particular has been trying to contain the antagonistic attitude of some of the more radical Pakistani Taliban leaders such as Baitullah Mehsud (who was killed last year) and his successors toward the Pakistani armed forces; Mullah Omar himself has made efforts to rein them in, although not as proactively."

But it would be wrong, Giustozzi argues, to assume these different ideological leanings suggested the Taliban movement was fragmented; rather among the different militant groups, only the Hizb-e-Islami could be described as organisationally distinguished. And while there had been some tension between the Haqqani group and Mullah Omar, there was no formal split. Nor indeed was there any evidence that an expansion of operations by the Haqqani group in Afghanistan had created tensions with fighters loyal to Mullah Omar. "This is clearly not the reaction one would expect if the Haqqani network was seen by the Taliban leadership in Quetta as a separate, competing organisation."

The Haqqani network is believed to be based in North Waziristan, a stronghold of the TTP, or Pakistani Taliban. Unlike the TTP, blamed for a string of bomb attacks inside Pakistan, the Haqqani network has focused exclusively on fighting in Afghanistan.  Pakistan has resisted U.S. pressure to launch a military operation against militants in North Waziristan, saying it must first consolidate gains made elsewhere in its tribal areas. According to some media reports, including this one in Dawn newspaper, it has also offered to help broker a rapprochement between the Haqqani group and the government in Kabul.  The implication of Giustozzi's assessment, however, would suggest the Haqqani group would follow Mullah Omar's lead in any negotiations, or at the very least move in tandem.

Giustozzi also highlights the ambivalence towards Pakistan of the Afghan Taliban.  "The Taliban relationship with Pakistan also is difficult to define with precision, despite being undeniable. The Pakistani army clearly sees the Taliban as a useful tool for its geopolitical ambitions in Afghanistan, but among the Taliban, the Pakistani patron is far from being popular. Apart from Haqqani and his network (always the closest to the Pakistanis), the other networks more tolerate Pakistani influence than appreciate it."

If Guinea Can…

If  Guinea can pull off free and fair elections this weekend, it will lay the foundations for what could be one of Africa’s most unexpected and significant good news stories.

True, any new government must still deal with widespread poverty, a shattered economy and an army that just nine months ago was involved in mass killings and gang rapes of opposition marchers.   But such has been the catalogue of military putsches, tainted votes and constitution-tinkering by incumbents in the immediate neighbourhood that a genuine election in Guinea should send a signal across West Africa and beyond.   “If it can happen in Guinea, it’s lesson for other countries and an incentive to (the world) to maintain engagement,” said Rolake Akinola, Africa analyst at Eurasia Group.   On one level, Sunday’s elections are a fluke – the result of a bullet fired by a former aide at former junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, grazing his skull and putting him out of action and in temporary exile in neighbouring Burkina Faso.   But on another level, they stem from a profound hunger among Guineans to put their dysfunctional past behind them and an international awareness that the country — crucial to regional stability — had reached tipping point.   The United States, European Union, France, Japan, Spain and others have piled in with an estimated 40 million euros of funding for the election process.   And Washington and Paris have discreetly but emphatically lent their weight to the regional diplomacy that has kept Dadis Camara out of the picture.   Of course, such direct intervention would be unthinkable in countries which had not plumbed the depths reached by Guinea.   But if things hold together in Guinea, it should bolster the arguments of those in rich world capitals who argue in favour of engagement — whether via targeted sanctions, shuttle diplomacy or outright financial support when merited.   It should also encourage military leaders in Niger to make good on promises to hold elections and return rule to civilians, and Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo to ensure presidential elections in his country that are now five years late.

After all, if Guinea can, why can’t they?

AUSTRALIAN PM RUDD’S FAREWELL

By Michael Perry

Chief Correspondent, Australia

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd promised so much but in the end failed to deliver the generational change voters had hoped for when they swept him to power 2007.

But it was for not want of trying.

In the end, the cut-throat nature of politics, where re-election is all that matters, saw Rudd’s government turn on him on Thursday in favour of his deputy Julia Gillard.

from Pakistan: Now or Never?:

In the drama of the runaway general, don’t forget Pakistan

On a visit to Pakistan in April, two comments stayed in my mind, encapsulating the Pakistani view of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.  One was from a political analyst in Islamabad, which stood out for the unusualness of the imagery.  "Obama," she said, "has tried to put his feet in both boats."  The other was from a senior serving officer, who appeared to be giving a personal opinion rather than reading from the script prepared for more official briefings.  "The Pashtun areas (of Afghanistan) are slipping out of the hands of ISAF and NATO, and everybody knows it," he said.

The Rolling Stone profile of General Stanley McChrystal - the drama aside of firing a top commander in wartime - is remarkable in the extent to which it plays up a similar assessment of the war in Afghanistan.

"Even those who support McChrystal and his strategy of counterinsurgency know that whatever the general manages to accomplish in Afghanistan, it’s going to look more like Vietnam than Desert Storm," it says. “It’s not going to look like a win, smell like a win or taste like a win,” it quotes Major General Bill Mayville, chief of operations for McChrystal, as saying. “This is going to end in an argument."

In that context, McChrystal's departure, and the very public washing of dirty linen over the conduct of the war, is unlikely to change the working assumptions Pakistan has about Afghanistan, and in consequence its policy decisions.  And given that Pakistan (nuclear-armed, population 170 million, base for al Qaeda and many other militant groups) is a bigger strategic nightmare for the United States than Afghanistan if it goes wrong, those policy decisions may well count for far more than the fate of a single general.

True, McChrystal had a tendency to say in public what others said in private.  His leaked assessment of the Afghan war last year was one of the first official U.S. documents to note that "increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani counter-measures in Afghanistan or India.” But him saying that, and indeed for that matter U.S. Special Representative Richard Holbrooke's insistence that he will never mention the word "Kashmir", do not change the underlying dynamic.  The Pakistan Army defines its policies according to its perception of a threat from India - and, to keep the time frame in perspective, has done so since 1947 - and that is not going to change overnight. Many analysts, most recently in this RAND Corporation report, argue that Pakistan and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency will continue to rely on militant proxies it once cultivated to counter India both in Kashmir and in Afghanistan.  Its willingness to help prod the Afghan Taliban into peace talks is seen as at least partly dependent on a reduction of Indian influence in Afghanistan. So this week's talks between the foreign secretaries and interior ministers of India and Pakistan in Islamabad could ultimately prove to be a more significant turning point - or more precisely, given these things move so slowly, the glimmer of a turning point in the distance.

McChrystal was also one of the first to play up publicly the possibility of reconciliation with the Taliban, telling the Financial Times in an interview before the London conference on Afghanistan in January that all Afghans could play a role in the future of the country. But that view has now been echoed by Holbrooke, and the suggestion that the United States might have to negotiate a settlement with its enemies is no longer condemned as heresy in the way it once was.

Arguably the sudden departure of British envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan Sherard Cowper-Coles this week  will have a bigger impact on the chances of negotiating a settlement. The British tend to punch above their weight in South Asian diplomacy, and Cowper-Coles, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia who was believed to favour talks with the Taliban, was well placed to try to find a way towards a settlement.

from Pakistan: Now or Never?:

India and Pakistan – yet again, past is prologue

Given the row over General Stanley McChrystal's comments in Rolling Stone magazine, the slow process of repairing relations between India and Pakistan is unlikely to get much attention. But there is some movement there, which is worth watching closely since the relationship between the two plays such a defining role in the attitudes of the Pakistan Army and by extension, in Pakistan's perceived approach to Afghanistan.

Following up on talks between their prime ministers in April, the foreign secretaries and interior ministers of India and Pakistan meet this week in Islamabad to try to rebuild trust between the two countries and find a way back into more substantive dialogue.

India broke off the formal peace process, the so-called Composite Dialogue, with Pakistan after the November 2008 attack on Mumbai and sporadic efforts since then to resume dialogue have been stuttering at best. 

But since the start of the year, India - which had insisted it would not resume talks until Pakistan acted against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group blamed for Mumbai - has shown some softening in its position.

Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, the country's top diplomat, said earlier this month all issues were up for discussion, although she also stressed that Pakistan must take action against militant groups.  In a speech to a conference organised by the Delhi Policy Group she referred to progress made both in the Composite Dialogue and in informal backchannel diplomacy to resolve the Kashmir dispute -- comments which were interpreted as an indication of India's hopes of building on the achievements made before Mumbai.

The backchannel diplomacy in particular established a roadmap for peace in Kashmir under which there would be no exchange of territory between India and Pakistan but both would work to make borders irrelevant - a formula which had at least the potential to end a 60-year standoff over the fate of the divided former kingdom.

According to The Hindu newspaper, India wanted to find out whether Pakistan too was willing to build on the gains made in negotiations before 2008.  It quoted official sources as saying that if the civilian government in Pakistan acknowledged what had been accomplished through the backchannel diplomacy and was ready to take that process forward, this would give big boost to trust building. “We have to see if they are willing to do that,” it quoted one source as saying.

from AxisMundi Jerusalem:

Writing on the walls

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip may just feel a little less isolated today. Israel is bowing to international pressure and rejigging its embargo on the  enclave in the wake of the bloodshed 3 weeks ago when it enforced a longstanding maritime blockade.

But earlier this month, taking my leave at the end of a 3-year assignment,  I reflected while walking the half-mile (700-metre) cage  (picture, right) that separates Gaza from Israel on  how the barriers that surround and divide this region have, if anything, grown higher, deepening the isolation of the rival parties. That may make any kind of reconciliation more difficult as time goes on. I wrote about this earlier today.

Since Israel pulled out troops from Gaza in 2005 and Hamas took control in 2007, the 1.5 million people in the 40-km (25-mile) sliver of Mediterranean coast, have been cut off. But they're not the only ones. Israel is itself a virtual island in the Arab world. Though it has peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, contact with them seems if anything to be retreating. Relations look little more vigorous at times than they are across the frontlines with Lebanon and Syria. Israeli dreams,  backed by some serious cash lately, of re-establishing a regional rail transport hub, seem far-fetched.

The frontier lines weave their way around and among Israeli and Palestinian populations that live lives in parallel but now rarely meet after a decade in which peace hopes faded amid bloodshed. New divisions among Palestinians, between Hamas and Fatah, have left Gaza virtually at war with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Israelis, too, have seen sharper confrontations within their nation, notably between secular and religious Jews. Inside the West Bank and across Jerusalem,  I've also watched new physical barriers going up and the battle for territory has heated up.  Today's revival of Israeli building plans in the annexed Arab east of the city is the latest development to stir angry passions.

In three years based in Jerusalem, I've been impressed by examples of Israelis and Palestinians who do reach over these rising barriers -- not least my colleagues in Reuters . But it does seem to be getting harder for most ordinary folk to cross those lines without risking a backlash from their own community.  So although the embargo on goods reaching Gaza looks set to ease, the long divide between the peoples on either side of the wall is unlikely to diminish any time soon.

Work starts for Santos after Colombia election win

After weeks of waiting, Colombia’s presidential election run-off was so one-sided it was over in minutes.

Former Bogota mayor and Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus had appealed to voters with his challenge to traditional parties and a call for cleaner government.

But in the end they overwhelmingly chose ex-finance and defense minister Juan Manuel Santos, who promised to continue the security and pro-business policies made popular by his former boss, President Alvaro Uribe.

As soon as results began to flood in from polling stations, the winner was clear: Santos ended up taking 69 percent of votes and a historic record of more than nine million ballots in total.

In an emotional concession speech, Mockus congratulated his rival and thanked supporters who he said had changed the face of Colombian politics forever with their appeal for a fresh approach to running the country.

Then attention shifted to the stadium where Santos’ victory rally was launched by dancers and musicians waving flags.