It was a weekend of mixed fortunes for the German
government’s aristocratic AC/DC fan Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.

    In Sunday’s federal election, the 37-year-old conservative
Economy Minister won 68.1 percent of the direct votes in his
constituency — more than any other politician in Germany, and
nearly 20 points more than Chancellor Angela Merkel — and
earning him the nickname “King of the votes” in German media.

    However, his Christian Social Union (CSU), Bavarian sister
party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats, had their worst day at
the polls in 60 years, taking just 42.6 percent of the vote in
the state they have ruled almost single-handedly since the war.

    With turnout at a record low, Merkel’s conservatives secured
a mandate to form Germany’s first centre-right coalition since
1998 with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

    But the success enjoyed by Freiherr Guttenberg — mockingly
dubbed the “Baron from Bavaria” by former Social Democrat
chancellor Gerhard Schroeder — could pose problems for the
CSU’s populist leader, Horst Seehofer.

    Keen to quash any talk of a leadership tussle with the
telegenic hard rock fan and sometime DJ, the 60-year-old
Seehofer told a board of directors in Munich: “You can’t start
coalition talks with questions about staff.”

    Despite its campaign slogan: “What our country needs now: a
stronger CSU in Berlin”, the CSU heads into coalition talks
weakened. Buoyed by its best ever performance, the FDP will
likely have twice as many seats as the CSU in parliament and
hopes to take control of three or four portfolios.

    Guttenberg, who has risen to the top of the popularity
charts since his appointment in February, is viewed as a
potential finance minister and possible chancellor one day –
and increasingly eyed with suspicion by his own party leader.

    Seehofer may therefore find himself in the awkward position
of having to rely on Guttenberg to secure influence in Berlin at
the risk of increasing his party rival’s power.

    This could prompt Seehofer to shore up his own power base in
Bavaria by winning back voters who defected to the FDP in the
vote — even if it means destabilising the coalition in Berlin.

PHOTO: Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg at the Frankfurt IAA exhibition on Sept. 24, 2009. REUTERS/Johannes Eisele

Pressure? What Pressure?

That was German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s message during a 90-minute grilling in Berlin by journalists at her last major news conference before the Sept. 27 election. Even though opinion polls show a narrowing in her re-election campaign and amid a growing nervousness in her conservative party, Merkel was a picture of tranquillity.

Although some of her conservative party allies are pushing for her to raise the volume and intensity of what has been an exceedingly cautious campaign, Merkel made it abundantly clear that she is not at all worried. Perhaps it was all a good bit of acting. But she answered even the most surly of questions from the pack of 100 journalists with a nationwide TV audience watching with smiles and jokes along with the usual assortment of evasive answers.

Like she has so often in the last four years, Merkel managed to find a shimmer of optimism in just about every query hurled her way. She turned each question about opinion polls showing the lead of her preferred centre-right alliance narrowing upside down by pointing out the centre-right still has a lead.

“The opinion polls are quite encouraging for us,” Merkel said even though the centre-right’s lead over a trio of left-leaning parties has shrunk to just two points in two polls and disappeared into a dead heat in a third. Two weeks ago, the centre-right had a six- to eight-point lead in those same polls over the Social Democrats, Greens and Left party. Four years ago, Merkel’s centre-right alliance also had a big lead before the election that evaporated on election day. The conservatives are particularly nervous after having seen their support plunge in the final days of the last two campaigns in 2002 and 2005.

Merkel also skated over questions about her shaky performance in a TV debate on Sunday against her rival Frank-Walter Steinmeier, her decision to go on a long summer vacation last month rather than campaign and her trip to Pittsburgh late next week just before the vote to attend a G20 summit.

“I treated myself to a two-week holiday because I felt it was appropriate and important – so that I could be happy and available right up to the end of the election campaign,” she said at one point. “I actually was quite satisfied with my performance in the TV debate,” Merkel said, disagreeing with the view of even many in her party that Steinmeier got the upper hand because she took such a cautious approach.

“It’s pretty much always the case that there is certain unrest and tension in a party as the election nears,” she said, adding a somewhat ominous warning to those in her party who are causing a commotion: “I’m going keeping a close eye on what everyone’s been saying.“

PHOTO: Angela Merkel smiles during a news conference in Berlin. REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz

With two weeks to go before Germany holds an election, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have unveiled a new set of election posters, depicting Merkel, Merkel, and more Merkel.

Rather than campaigning on the issues highlighted in their election programmes, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) are keeping it simple and hoping to capitalise instead on the popularity of their leader, Germany’s first female chancellor.

(Photo: A new election campaign poster of German Chancellor Merkel is pictured in Berlin, Sept. 14, 2009, Reuters/Fabrizio Bensch)

“The key question is whether Angela Merkel, who has intelligently guided Germany throughout the crisis, should continue to govern,” said Ronald Pofalla, general secretary of the CDU, at a press conference in Berlin.

“With the new posters, we want to make clear to people that they will only get Merkel again as a chancellor if they vote for the CDU.”

The posters show only Merkel, smiling benevolently against a minimalist black background, and feature slogans like: “We vote for the Chancellor” or “We vote for confidence”.

The latest posters are emblematic of the conservatives’ general campaign, which has focused less on hard-hitting issues such as tax cuts and atomic energy than on popular personalities like Merkel and the Economy Minister Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg.

On previous posters, Guttenberg and other well-known conservative politicians were shown against a blurry background, alongside vague slogans such as “economy with reason”, “strong families” and “good education”.

The posters contrast with those of other parties, which make strong statements on specific policies. A poster for the Social Democrats (SPD), the conservatives’ main challenger, shows an anonymous young woman and reads “atomic energy was yesterday, clean energy is the future, and that is why I am voting SPD”.

 With the election looming, the question is whether voters will let the conservatives get away with their refusal to engage on the issues and failure to offer a new vision for the future of Europe’s largest economy.

Analysts said Merkel did worse than her SPD challenger Frank-Walter Steinmeier in a television debate on Sunday — partly because she preferred to echo the vague slogans of her campaign rather than spell out what she plans to do if she is re-elected.

Is she smart to steer clear of controversy and rely on her popularity to win a second term, or could the strategy backfire on Sept. 27 as it did in the TV debate?

(Additional Reporting by Wolfgang Kerler)

Strikingly different election campaign styles in Germany and Britain, especially parties’ contrasting use of the media, provide some intriguing insights into the political traditions of the two nations.

in Britain, the parties hold daily news conferences, broadcast live, where leaders attempt to set an agenda for the day — be it on health, tax or education — and then get grilled by the press corps.

In Germany there is no equivalent. In fact, there are not even regular weekly news conferences with conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Social Democrat (SPD) rival Frank-Walter Steinmeier. 

Instead, they seek direct contact with voters by holding speeches in town squares and, especially in the southern state of Bavaria, beer tents.

The challengers are not interested in playing to the media because the election does not dominate the German headlines as much as it does in Britain.

One reason for the particularly strong contrast this year is the duo fighting the German election. Merkel and Steinmeier are shying away from personal attacks as they know they may have to share power again after the Sept. 27 vote.

And few dispute that either challenger competes with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair or opposition leader David Cameron – let alone U.S. President Barack Obama — on charisma.

Indeed, former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s media instincts — on display in the 2002 campaign when he waded through flooded areas in wellington boots — stood out because they were an exception.

But the differerences run deeper than individuals.

The national media plays a far bigger role for British politicians. Clinching the backing of The Sun tabloid was a pivotal moment for Blair before his 1997 landslide.

In this environment, pictures and soundbites become all-important for politicians to get their message across.

An enduring image of 2005’s UK election was when Blair bought his arch-rival Gordon Brown an ice cream in a show of unity designed to shake off rumours the two were not speaking.

In Germany, the regionally fragmented newspaper landscape means no single headline carries as much weight.

In addition, the overall relationship between politicians and media is very different.

Germany’s top politicians are never subjected to the aggressive, at times irreverent, probing British politicans get from BBC interviewers John Humphrys or Jeremy Paxman. 

Although German reporters do not stand up when Merkel enters the room, as their U.S. counterparts do for the President, there is a high degree of respect discernible among Berlin’s political hacks who tend to ask thoughtful, serious questions rather than try to catch out their subjects.

So what does this reflect?

Germany’s relatively short tradition of parliamentary democracy, compared to that of Britain, France and the United States, has — some commentators argue — nurtured a greater deference to authority than in Britain.

Germany adopted a political system after World War Two carefully designed to avoid the weaknesses of the Weimar Republic — a fragmented system that had enabled Hitler’s rise to power.

Today’s system makes for stable but moderate coalition governments which cannot implement radical reforms in the tradition of, say Britain’s Margaret Thatcher, say analysts.

A series of checks and balances and the distribution of power to the 16 federal states limit politicians in what they can do.

Some commentators argue an unforgiving British media does the job the country’s political system fails to do.

For example, it is almost unthinkable that a German reporter would pose the question: “Do you have blood on your hands?” as a British reporter asked Blair after the death of David Kelly, a government weapons expert who was found dead after being linked to a BBC report stating the government had exaggerated the case for going to war in Iraq.

The political setup suits Germans who these days prefer incremental change and predictable politicians to charismatic leaders with radical ideas, say political scientists, who argue the many merits of the German structure.

But are the benefits of the German system a recipe for a turgid election campaign?

Barack Obama might have unrivalled expertise about the U.S. electorate. But the American president showed he’s something of a fish out of water when it comes to the complex world of German politics — where the seeming winners sometimes end up losing and the losers can end up in power with the right alliance.

Obama recently told Germany’s conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel to stop worrying about the Sept. 27 election: “Ah, you’ve already won. I don’t know what you always worry about,” Obama told her in comments captured by a German TV camera at the White House as the two were on their way to a joint news conference.

Merkel looked surprised by his comments — she knows that she doesn’t have anything in the bag yet — even with what might appear to outsiders to be a comfortable 12- to 17-point lead in opinion polls over her main rivals, the Social Democrats, with just 7 weeks left before the election.

Why is that?

Because under Germany’s “fiendishly complex proportional system” , Merkel’s conservatives could beat her rival Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s SPD and still end up without the centre-right coalition they want — or even more dramatically they could win the vote but end up losing power completely.

(more…)

A technical fault at a German nuclear power station has thrown a spotlight on one of the few issues that divide the two main parties before September’s election — atomic energy.

But the anti-nuclear Social Democrats (SPD), who have shared power with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives since 2005, may be disappointed if they had hoped to win votes from it.

Merkel, forced to accept a phaseout of Germany’s atomic plants under its coalition deal with the SPD, is campaigning on extending the lifespan of nuclear plants which are deemed safe.

By contrast, the SPD is committed to the phaseout which it introduced in a previous alliance with the Greens, and Saturday’s failed restart at the ageing Kruemmel plant in northern Germany has galvanised some of its members into action.

The SPD, trailing Merkel’s conservative camp by more than 16 percentage points and at risk of losing its role in government, is trying to do all it can to mobilise its traditional supporters before the Sept. 27 vote.

SPD Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel pounced on the incident, swiftly taking to the airwaves to push his case that the phaseout should be accelerated. And on Wednesday a Berlin newspaper was strategically leaked a government statement, albeit from 2006-07, which said safety standards at older plants like Kruemmel were not as high as at more modern reactors.

Germans have for decades nurtured an aversion to atomic energy, which supplies just under 30 percent of their power needs.

But as other European countries have started to revive nuclear, opinion has started to shift due mainly to higher energy prices and fears about supply. Pollsters say Germans are now pretty evenly split on whether to support a later decommissioning of plants.

In their campaign manifesto, conservatives argue nuclear is an important part of the energy mix, at least until renewable sources are fully commercially viable.

“If the SPD tries to make this a big election topic, it will not have much success. Public opinion is moving towards an acceptance of atomic energy,” said Klaus-Peter Schoeppner, head of Emnid pollsters.

Suddenly, the outlook has darkened for Chancellor Angela Merkel, thanks to Bavaria’s conservatives who suffered their worst result in half a century in a state vote on Sunday.

Merkel is used to riding high in polls and had looked to be cruising to re-election in a year’s time.

But the disaster in Bavaria, plus a clouded economic outlook due to financial crisis around the globe leave Merkel looking vulnerable and open to attack from within her conservative camp.

The prospect of a reinvigorated Social Democrat (SPD) party, with whom she shares power in a loveless coalition, under its new leadership is yet another headache.

Merkel’s enviable status as Germany’s most popular post-war chancellor isn’t helping her party which is languishing at around 37 percent in polls while the SPD, although weaker, is starting to make gains.

And the 17 percent slump in support for Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU),  is part of a trend.

This year, conservatives have endured heavy losses in all four states that have held elections and lost their absolute majority in Hamburg as well as Bavaria. Within weeks, the CDU could also lose power in Hesse where the SPD is expected to clinch a deal to oust CDU state premier Roland Koch after a knife-edge result in a Janaury vote.

Another left-right “grand coalition” looks more likely than ever as Merkel relies on the CSU – which accounts for more than 20 percent of the conservative bloc in parliament — for power.

If, as usual, the CSU performs worse in federal elections than in the state vote, Merkel could face a struggle to form the coalition she wants — with the liberal Free Democrats.

Merkel, who as the female,  Protestant leader of a predominantly male, Catholic party, has always struggled to fit in, may face still more unrest within the conservative camp.

Already Christian Wulff, a top CDU figure and head of Lower Saxony, has laid the blame for Bavaria on Merkel, saying the losses were partly due to compromises struck by her coalition.

The chancellor may also have made a mistake in slapping down CSU demands for tax cuts as now she will face a more cantankerous CSU which is likely to push harder for those tax cuts and could block other reforms.

Bavarian conservatives probably have the worst behind them but Merkel may have the worst still to come.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel sent a clear “I told you so!” to the United States and Britain at the weekend, criticising them in unusually frank terms for resisting measures that might have contained the current financial crisis. The conservative leader of Europe’s largest economy reminded her partners that she had pushed for steps to boost the transparency of hedge funds during Germany’s presidency of the Group of Eight last year. ”We got things moving, but we didn’t get enough support, especially in the United States and Britain,” she told the Muenchner Merkur newspaper. Merkel expanded on her point in a speech in Austria, suggesting that both Washington and London were only now coming around to her view.

“It was said for a long time ‘Let the markets take care of themselves’ and that there is ‘no need for more transparency’…Today we are a step further because even America and Britain are saying ‘Yes, we need more transparency, we need better standards for the ratings agencies’.

Germany had made greater transparency a key theme of its rotating presidency of the G8, which includes the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Canada and Russia. Berlin had expressed fears that hedge funds could threaten the stability of the financial system through their heavy reliance on borrowing to finance risky trading strategies. But it ran into resistance from the United States and Britain, achieving little.

Whether Merkel’s G8 initiative could have averted or limited the current financial market crisis if it had been successful is certainly debatable. But reminding voters that she had sought to address the problem as early as last year could help Merkel score points on the domestic front ahead of a general election next year. Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) rule in an uneasy grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), and both sides have been trying to play up their own role as crisis manager in the current financial market turmoil.

Both Merkel and her SPD finance minister, Peer Steinbrueck, have tried to take credit for Germany’s efforts last year to agree better transparency rules for financial markets. SPD budget expert Carsten Schneider praised Steinbrueck’s efforts during Germany’s G8 presidency in a newspaper interview on Monday, adding: “At the time, the United States and Britain demonised every effort to agree more transparency and rules.”

As Germany’s election approaches, the “I told you so!” Berlin seemed to send to Washington and London on the weekend could turn into an “I told you so first!”-competition between Merkel’s CDU and her SPD rivals.