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November 17th, 2009

Can the West salvage Karzai’s reputation?

Posted by: Peter Graff

karzai

That sure was fast.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told American TV audiences that Afghan President Hamid Karzai needed to take steps to fight graft, including setting up a new anti-corruption task force, if he wants to keep U.S. support. Less than 24 hours later, there was Karzai’s interior minister at a luxury hotel in Kabul -- flanked by the U.S. and British ambassadors -- announcing exactly that. A new major crimes police task force, anti-corruption prosecution unit and special court will be set up, at least the third time that Afghan authorities and their foreign backers have launched special units to tackle corruption.

There are just a couple of days left before Karzai is inaugurated for a new term as president. Perhaps a few more days after that, U.S. President Barack Obama will announce whether he is sending tens of thousands of additional troops to join the 68,000 Americans and 40,000 NATO-led allies fighting there.

A fraud-tainted election has wrecked Karzai’s reputation in the Western countries whose troops defend him. Support for the eight-year-old war has plummeted over the past few months, even as the death tolls have reached their highest levels yet. For better or worse, Karzai’s Western backers know they are stuck with the veteran leader for another five years, and need to resurrect his reputation fast.

Regardless of how many extra troops Obama sends, the war in Afghanistan is the most important foreign policy issue of his presidency. If he is going to maintain support at home, he needs to show the American people that protecting the Karzai government is a cause worth sending their sons and daughters to die for. That means, after weeks of grumbling about Karzai in public, you should expect to see U.S. officials accentuating the positive in coming days. VIPs who stayed away will be heading to Kabul for the inauguration. Karzai’s new government, expected not to be much different from his old government, will nonetheless be welcomed as an improvement. Hands will be shaken and warm words spoken.

The election was the sort of travesty that can’t be easily swept under a rug. A U.N.-backed probe concluded that nearly a third of votes cast for Karzai were fake. The strong position against vote fraud taken by Peter Galbraith – a former senior U.S. diplomat sacked from his post as deputy head of the U.N. mission in Kabul – showed how deeply divided the Western contingent in Kabul was over the issue. Privately diplomats praise Galbraith for exposing the fraud, but publicly they are struggling to undo the damage to Karzai caused by the debacle.

The ultimate outcome of the election was probably fair. Diplomats say Karzai would probably have won outright in a first round if Taliban threats and rocket attacks had not forced many of his fellow Pashtun voters in the south to stay home on election day in August. He almost certainly would have won in a second round, if his opponent Abdullah Abdullah had not quit six days before it was due to be held.

But the ugly process has yielded only one real winner: the Taliban. An election whose main purpose was to shore up the legitimacy of the Afghan president has instead shredded his reputation and rattled the resolve of his allies. Exactly what the militants hoped for when they sent rockets raining down on voters three months ago.

November 3rd, 2009

Indonesia goes for digital people power

Posted by: Reuters Staff

By Sunanda Creagh

 Some Jakartans protest the traditional way to save the anti-corruption agency

Just over a decade ago, Indonesians took to the streets to protest. Now they can make themselves heard without even leaving home.

A Facebook group supporting two senior officials from the anti-corruption agency, who many people think have been framed, has attracted almost half a million members in just four days.

This digital people power may well be one reason why on Monday, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono launched a probe into the case.

It’s the second time Facebook has played such an important role in a public debate in Indonesia. Earlier this year, thousands “rallied” online in support of a woman who had been charged with defamation for complaining about her treatment in hospital.

Indonesia is the world’s seventh-biggest user of the social networking site, according to Inside Facebook, and 8.23 million of its 8.52 million Facebook addicts joined up in the last year. The new information minister, Tifatul Sembiring, is a daily user of microblogging site Twitter, and says he wants to use it to seek policy ideas.

After decades of authoritarian rule, Indonesia is now a flourishing democracy yet many individuals still feel frustration that their voices and opinions are seldom heeded by politicians. So will online social networking sites contribute to Indonesia’s political future or is this just a passing fad?

PHOTO CREDIT/REUTERS/Beawiharta

August 20th, 2009

Where will Nigerian bank crisis lead?

Posted by: Matthew Tostevin

The list published by Nigeria's central bank of those who owe money to the banks it has just bailed out makes clear that the situation has already gone well beyond just being a banking crisis.

The list cuts across the business elite and Nigeria's regions and also includes many politically powerful figures. (And it doesn't even appear that all those who could have been named as directors of the debtor companies have been identified).

It raises a question as to whether so many of the great and good are simply unable to pay their debts and if so what that means for business in Nigeria as a whole? If they could pay up, then why haven't they?

It also raises a question as to how those 'named and shamed' will react, particularly those with major political sway, in a country where behind the scenes manipulation is a way of life.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has set a deadline for the debtors to start coming up with money or face arrest, but its efforts to prosecute former state governors in the past were sometimes stymied and its former boss Nuhu Ribadu driven from office.

What will be the fate of Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi (left), only recently picked for the post by President Umaru Yar'Adua?

How well do you think the crisis is being handled? Please take your chance to vote below. We welcome your comments too.

Pictures: Akintunde Akinleye (Reuters); Central Bank of Nigeria

 

 

May 18th, 2009

Echoes of Italy’s Clean Hands revolution

Posted by: Stephen Addison

The shockwaves reverberating through Westminster as the MPs' expenses scandal unfolds have been compared with the "Clean Hands" bribery scandal that effectively demolished Italy's post-war political establishment in the space of a couple of years in the early 1990s.

If things are going to get that bad, the guilty politicians are going to have an uncomfortable time.

As a reporter in Rome at the time, I remember how surprise turned to anger then just as it has now as the public began to realise the sheer extent of the corruption that was helping to line the pockets of the country's leading politicians and their parties.

The morning newspapers brought fresh revelations almost daily of how the main political parties routinely demanded kickbacks in return for government contracts. There were the "golden sheets" for example in which invoices for linen and bedding were inflated to thousands of pounds, and the exorbitant demands placed on suppliers to hospitals, which caused particular anger.

People used to demonstrate in the streets wearing white gloves to show they had clean hands. They would try to scare MPs they felt were corrupt by sending them spoof versions of the "avviso," the official notice that warned potential offenders they were under investigation. The avviso itself became one of the enduring symbols of the scandal, almost like the guillotine in revolutionary France. Reproductions of it used to sell well as birthday and Christmas cards.

Another favourite amng the angry public, if any disgraced politician dared show his face his public, was to mockingly shower them with coins.

Such was the fate of one of those held to have been most deeply involved in the corruption, Socialist leader Bettino Craxi, who was forced to flee to his second home in Tunisia to escape jail in Italy. Other disgraced politicians and businessmen even took their own lives.

What was going on in Italy at that time was undoubtedly far more serious than the exploitation of MPs' expenses, but because the British have tended to be less cynical about their elected representatives, the sense of outrage has been much the same.

But before the calls for a complete shake-out of the British political establishment become so loud as to be unstoppable, it might be worth remembering, as former Labour minister Michael Meacher points out in his blog, that political vaccuums often produce surprise results.

Fringe parties, for example, can make big gains, as seems to be happening already in Britain.

And in the case of Italy, the net result of the collapse of its main parties was -- Silvio Berlusconi.

May 11th, 2009

Expenses: They order this matter differently in Sweden

Posted by: Jonathan Lynn

 

A scandal about expenses claimed by British members of parliament has damaged the already low standing of British politicians and helped Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party to its worst opinion poll showing since polling began.

The MPs argue that what they are doing is within the rules – correct, but missing the point that it is out of line with public sentiment especially at a time of national belt-tightening.

While some of the claims run into thousands of pounds for mortgage interest or home decoration, others are for trivial sums for items like dogfood or, bizarrely, a tampon claimed by a male MP. Hardly the stuff of kleptocracy.

But in some countries elected officials face savage retribution if their expense claims do not meet public standards.

Take Sweden. A prosperous, egalitarian country ranked joint 1st (with Denmark and New Zealand) out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s annual survey of corruption. Under constitutionally protected freedom of information rules, even everyone’s tax returns are in the public domain.

Elected in 1982 to Sweden’s parliament for the Social Democrats as the country’s youngest MP, Mona Sahlin rose quickly through the ministerial ranks. When in 1995 Prime Minister Ingvar Carlsson announced his intention to resign, she was the sole candidate to replace him.

But in October 1995 it emerged that Sahlin had used her government credit card to buy a bar of chocolate.

 There would have been nothing wrong with this if Sahlin had paid the money back. And in Sweden everyone uses a credit card for everything because the government discourages the use of cash to prevent evasion of its high, but largely accepted, taxes.

 But the spotlight was now on Sahlin. In the ensuing “Toblerone Affair”, further revelations showed she had used the card to pay for hired cars for private use, had not paid her television licence, had failed to pay parking fines, and had hired a childminder without declaring it for taxes — a misdemeanour that can also be career-limiting for U.S. politicians.

In November Sahlin withdrew her candidacy.  

  

Finance Minister Göran Persson was chosen instead, becoming prime minister in March 1996, a position he held for another 10 years.

 

 

 

Sahlin’s career was not completely over. She had remained an influential figure within the Social Democrats, returning to the cabinet in 2002, and after Persson lost the September 2006 election and resigned his party posts, Sahlin was elected party leader in March 2007.

But her career had been set back 10 years and she may never be prime minister.

PHOTO CREDIT: credit cards REUTERS/Jim Bourg

PHOTO CREDIT: toblerone REUTERS/Ruben Sprich

PHOTO CREDIT: Sahlin 1995 REUTERS/STR New

PHOTO CREDIT: Sahlin 2007 REUTERS/Scanpix

 

 

April 30th, 2009

The Bitter End for South Korea’s Leaders

Posted by: Jon Herskovitz

By Jon Herskovitz

There is almost no such thing as a happy retirement for South Korea’s former presidents.

Former President Roh Moo-hyun, who left office a little more than a year ago, joined the club of troubled ex-leaders on Thursday when he appeared before prosecutors to answer questions about their suspicions his family received at least $1 million in bribes from a shoe company CEO.

Roh came to office pledging to clean up the South Korean presidency. Even his critics say one of his biggest achievements was to make the election process far more open and fair.

But he was not able to change what critics see as a fundamental problem with politics in South Korea — overly strict election laws. After decades of seeing bribery as commonplace in political circles, the country set up tough laws on campaign financing and other electoral reforms that have helped South Korea become one of the most vibrant democracies in Asia but have also led politicians to scramble for funds.  

Yun Chang-hyun, a professor of finance at the University of Seoul explains: “In America, lobbyists are legal but it is not legal here. That said, lobbying is still going on in many ways. We do not officially accept that money is needed for politics, but in reality, politicians and statesmen need a lot of money. A small amount is permitted, but they need a lot of money. “ 

The fate of former President Roh should become clear in the next few months. Here is what history has brought to his predecessors, almost all of whom left office with dismal support rates:

Syngman Rhee served from 1948-1960. An independence movement leader during the 1910-1945 Japanese colonial period, Rhee was a key figure in setting up the Republic of Korea with the help of the United States. In his final year in office, Rhee’s manipulation of the presidential election vote provoked a nationwide student protest, forcing him to step down and seek refuge in Hawaii. He died in exile in 1965.

Yun Bo-seon was a figurehead leader who served from 1960-61 and would later be put on trial for anti-government activities by the strongman who followed him as president.

 Park Chung-hee, a former elementary school teacher and general, took office in a military coup and was the country’s longest-serving president. His 1961-1979 tenure also came to the most abrupt end when he was shot dead by his intelligence agency chief at a private dinner party.

   Chun Doo Hwan, who served from 1980-1988, was another general who forced his way to the presidency but was later forced to step down in face of massive pro-democracy protests. 

His successor and military colleague, Roh Tae-woo, allowed the National Assembly to conduct a humiliating investigation into Chun’s presidency at a time when Seoul was hosting the 1988
Olympics. After his resignation, Chun spent two spartan years in internal exile at a remote Buddhist monastery in the mountains.

Chun and Roh were later convicted of receiving millions of dollars in bribes as well as mutiny and treason for their roles in the 1979 coup and 1980 massacre of civilians in Kwangju.

Chun was sentenced to death, later commuted to life in jail, while Roh’s 22-1/2-year jail sentence was reduced to 17 years on appeal. Both were released from prison in early 1998.

The next president Kim Young-sam, who served from 1993-1998,  was forced to seek a $58-billion bailout led by the International Monetary Fund in his final weeks in  office when the country teetered on bankruptcy. His son was arrested and jailed for corruption but freed under the next president, Kim Dae-jung.

    Kim Dae-jung, who served from 1998-2003 won the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing the divided Koreas closer together but business scandals tarnished his last year in office. Two of his sons were convicted of bribery and tax evasion.

There is only one leader who left office without much fuss, enjoyed a quiet retirement and has also mostly been forgotten.

That would be  Choi Kyu-hah who served as the head of a what was considered a caretaker government from 1979 to 1980. After being forced out by Chun Doo Hwan, and decided he had had enough of political life.  He kept quiet, kept to himself and kept away from the prosecutors office.

(Reuters pictures. From top to bottom: President Roh Moo-hyun. Anti-Roh demonstration outside of the prosecutors’ office in Seoul, file picture of former Presidents Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae-woo on trial.)

April 29th, 2009

Scandal-plagued Greeks shrug off corruption

Posted by: Dina Kyriakidou

Bombarded with revelations of scandals for decades, Greeks have developed a slightly thick skin regarding graft. An opinion poll this week showed corruption was rated fifth among top voter
concerns, coming after the global economic crisis, education, crime and health.

Fed up with years of socialist scandals, Greeks elected the conservative New Democracy government by a landslide in 2004, mostly convinced by its pledges to clean up Greek politics.

Five years later, fresh scandals have made headlines, ranging from selling overpriced government bonds to state pension funds to suspect land deals with a wealthy monastery.

The euro zone member is among the EU’s lowest ranking countries on the Transparency International corruption watchdog’s index, actually worsening a few notches in recent years.

New Democracy, clinging to a one-seat majority in parliament after a narrow re-election in Sept 2008, trails the main socialist PASOK opposition by up to 7 percentage points in opinion polls.

Violent riots in December, partly fuelled by the financial crisis, and unpopular economic measures have prompted talk of a snap election - possibly as early as June 7, along with the European Parliament vote.

“Greeks appear fed up but they are more sophisticated than other Westerners when it comes to political corruption - they don’t seem to mind if the amounts are small but they take offence if they are big,” said a western diplomat in Athens.

Greeks regularly complain about low level graft but appear to have accepted it. They have even invented an expression for the small bribes they often have to put in a public servant’s palm to get things done -”grigorossimo”, meaning fast-stamp.

But the latest wave of political scandals has exasperated even some die-hard New Democracy supporters. At barber shops, cafes and restaurants around the country, the conversation inevitably revolves around political corruption but most agree little can be done under the existing political system.

In the latest case to reach parliament, lawmakers must decide next week whether a former shipping minister must stand trial after charges by a shipowner that he was asked for bribes in order to be awarded lucrative Aegean island ferry routes.

For the conservative deputies, the choice is between appearing determined to fight corruption and showing a solid front, fending off the prospect of early elections. For opposition parties, it’s a chance to eat away at the government’s public support.

Analysts say voters are disillusioned, unconvinced politicians from both major parties really mean to clean up house and this is reflected in opinion polls. Only 14.7 percent of those asked by the GPO polling agency said scandals was a top priority.

“No politician ever goes to jail,” wrote commentator Filipos Syrigos in the liberal Eleftherotypia daily. “Scandals are only a political playing field … until the Greek people really get fed up and look for their own way out.”

(Employees sit behind a stand with souvenirs at a shop for tourists in Plaka neighbourhood in central Athens March 31, 2009. Recession-hit Europeans are trimming travel plans and their absence threatens a vital source of income in a country that relies on tourism for about one in five jobs. Holiday bookings fell about 15 to 20 percent from 2008, according to the Pan-Hellenic Federation of Tourism Enterprises (POET). Hotels have slashed prices to counter the drop, hoping wary consumers may push spending decisions to the last moment. Photo taken March 31, 2009. To match feature GREECE-TOURISM/ REUTERS/John Kolesidis (GREECE TRAVEL SOCIETY BUSINESS))

April 20th, 2009

Will Mandela effect help ANC?

Posted by: michael georgy

Nelson Mandela, a global symbol of reconciliation after the end of apartheid in 1994, appeared at the ruling ANC's last election rally before Wednesday's vote, delivering a last minute campaign boost for party leader Jacob Zuma.

Wearing a Zuma t-shirt, he sat beside the ANC leader, who has been fighting corruption allegations for eight years. The case was just dropped on a technicality and some South Africans still question his innocence.

It's the second time Mandela has appeared at an ANC rally in the run up to the election, seen as the ANC's toughest test since it came to power - it is still set to win by a big margin, but perhaps by not as big a margin as before.

After the first campaign appearance, some of the ANC's foes suggested Mandela had been unfairly exploited and even that his health had been put at risk. But he certainly looked happy enough on Sunday - if as frail as might be expected for a 90 year-old.

Was Mandela's appearance a desperate last attempt by the ANC to gather votes and divert attention from enduring troubles such as poverty, crime and AIDS?

Or was it just a sign of the faith that Mandela still has in Africa's oldest liberation movement?

Fifteen years after the end of apartheid, is South Africa still seen a model of democracy on a continent where freedom is lacking? Or is it headed in the wrong direction?

April 8th, 2009

Indonesia: To hell and back

Posted by: Dean Yates

By Dean Yates

(The author lived in Indonesia from 1992-1995 and 2000-2005, with various assignments in between)

It was not that long ago that Indonesia was lurching from crisis to crisis, even drawing some (misplaced) predictions it could go the way of the former Yugoslavia and break apart. These days it rarely makes the front page. It has a steady president in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, probably the freest press in Southeast Asia and political violence appears to be a thing of the past. The last major bomb attack blamed on Islamic militants was in 2005.

It’s worth recalling how bad things were in Indonesia as this country of 226 million people prepares to vote in parliamentary elections on Thursday, which will set the stage for the more important presidential poll in July. The parliamentary election will be the third time voters in the world’s most populous Muslim nation have elected their representatives at a national level since the downfall of former autocrat Suharto in 1998. As the Wall Street Journal noted in an editorial on April 8, Indonesia
shows that democracy and Islam aren’t mutually exclusive.

All this progress seemed so unlikely early in 1998 when the country’s economy was in freefall. It’s hard to imagine a currency losing 85 percent of its value, but that’s what happened to the rupiah when the Asian financial crisis savaged Indonesia. I remember stunned Indonesian colleagues in the Reuters Jakarta bureau, their hands on their head, as the rupiah crashed to a low of 17,000 to the U.S. dollar. Months before, one U.S. dollar bought 2,500 rupiah. Food prices soared and the “wong cilik”, or little people, rebelled. Food riots hit markets. Protests escalated. Students demanded democratic change. Then Suharto — under pressure from the International Monetary Fund — hiked fuel prices on May 4, 1998. A week later, violence exploded, killing 1,200 people in Jakarta. Suharto was forced out a few days later.   

After three decades of authoritarian rule that combined rapid economic growth with political repression and breathtaking corruption, Suharto’s “New Order” government had collapsed. It was replaced by a vacuum. Communal animosity that had simmered for years in the eastern Moluccas, an idyllic group of islands evenly split between Muslims and Christians, erupted. Thousands
were killed. President Abdurrahman Wahid, an affable moderate Muslim cleric with a penchant for cracking jokes, was toppled in 2001 in an impeachment vote, effectively for incompetence.

International perceptions of Indonesia, already pretty grim, got worse in 2002 when Islamic militants bombed two nightclubs in Bali, killing 202 people, mostly foreign tourists. As I stepped over debris the following morning, bits of flesh still under twisted metal, all I could think of was why? Why Bali? Why this beautiful island? The answer was obvious of course — kill holidaymakers enjoying themselves on one of the world’s most famous islands and you will get the world’s attention.

And then came the Asian tsunami. A massive undersea earthquake of 9.15 magnitude unleashed giant waves that smashed into the Indonesian province of Aceh in December 2004, killing around 170,000 people. The toll was unbelievable. Bodies lay rotting for weeks. I still remember Adnan Ibrahim, who had spent days searching refugee camps in the local capital Banda Aceh for his son, Syawaluddin, 17. “The boy is very smart. He is good with computers,” said Ibrahim, before breaking into sobs. I am sure he never found him.

Beside elections of that year — which brought Yudhoyono to power — the tsunami was a turning point for Indonesia. In the early days after the disaster, Yudhoyono decided to allow foreign militaries and aid workers to descend on Aceh to help with rescue and recovery efforts. He had opened the door to a province that until then was virtually sealed off to foreigners, scene of a vicious conflict between the Indonesian military and separatist rebels that had killed 15,000 people over the past 30 years. The tsunami was a catalyst for a peace deal between the government and the rebels in 2005. It confounded sceptics who predicted it would never last. Former rebels will even run for local office in the elections on Thursday.

Few thought Indonesia would make such strides and be where it is today. Democracy is well entrenched — “taken root and flourished” — in the words of the Economist in its April 2 edition. Sure there are problems. It’s a huge, unwieldy place to govern. Corruption is still a major problem and the country’s infrastructure needs an overhaul. And it is still poor. But compared to a little over 10 years ago, Indonesia has done pretty well. It has a huge civil society. Think of any issue and there will be an NGO in there fighting for justice and accountability. Indonesians are a people of great warmth, humour and openness. They deserve the international praise that now comes their way.

March 26th, 2009

France and Africa. New relationship?

Posted by: Matthew Tostevin

Before Nicolas Sarkozy was elected president in 2007, he made clear he wanted to break with France’s old way of doing business in Africa – a cosy blend of post-colonial corruption and patronage known as “Françafrique” that suited a fair few African dictators and the French establishment alike.

He has made the same point during his past visits to the continent.

“The old pattern of relations between France and Africa is no longer understood by new generations of Africans, or for that matter by public opinion in France. We need to change the pattern of relations between France and Africa if we want to look at the future together,” Sarkozy said in South Africa early last year.

This week he is back in Africa for a visit on which France’s business interests play a very prominent role.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sarkozy called on the country to work with former foes Rwanda and Uganda in a partnership based on exploiting the region’s natural riches.

Another stop was in neighbouring Congo Republic to see President Denis Sassou Nguesso, an old friend of France who seized power in the oil-producing state in 1979, lost it in a 1992 election and then returned five years later via a civil war. In the past, Congo Republic symbolised as much as anywhere the old style of diplomacy.

After the Congos, the schedule takes Sarkozy to Niger, a particularly important country for nuclear power dependent France because of the uranium mining interests of French state-controlled nuclear energy group Areva. It is building a huge new mine in Niger, where the government is fighting Tuareg rebels who demand more of the region’s wealth.

Sarkozy is doing nothing different from other world leaders by bringing along a bevy of executives keen to sign deals. France also faces a great deal of competition from China and others in what it used to treat as its “backyard” and is keen to ensure it does not lose out.

In Brazzaville, Sarkozy repeated the pledge he made a year ago to renegotiate all France’s accords with African countries and to make sure they are published in full. But the pace of progress so far has raised questions over how determined France is to break with the past. What do you think the prospects for change are? Is it important?

France's President Nicolas Sarkozy with Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso in Brazzaville March 26, 2009. REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer