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September 9th, 2008

The Russians are coming — Caribbean Crisis redux?

Posted by: Angus MacSwan

The 19,000-ton nuclear-powered cruiser “Peter the Great” is seen in this June 2003 file photo. Russia said on Monday it would send a heavily-armed nuclear-powered cruiser to the Caribbean for a joint naval exercise with Venezuela, its first major manoeuvres on the United States’ doorstep since the Cold War. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said on Monday that the naval mission to Venezuela would include the nuclear-powered battle cruiser “Peter the Great”, one of the world’s largest combat battleships. REUTERS/Stringer (RUSSIA)The thought of Russian warships cruising the waters of the Caribbean instinctively revives memories of such Cold War episodes as the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

Russia is sending a heavily armed nuclear-powered cruiser and other ships, aircraft and troops for a joint naval exercise with Venezuela, its first big manoeuvres in the United States’ self-declared backyard since the end of the Cold War.

It is extremely unlikely the deployment will provoke a crisis as dangerous and dramatic as 1962, but it is still an irritant to Washington.

Venezuela under President Hugo Chavez has replaced Fidel Castro’s Cuba as its chief bugbear in Latin America.

Spouting anti-imperialist rhetoric, Chavez has led a socialist revolution aimed at countering a century of U.S. influence — some might say meddling — in the region. He counts as allies leaders such as Bolivia’s Evo Morales as well as many poor people. 

He has backed up his actions with largesse from Venezuela’s oil wealth. Ironically, a lot of those dollars come from the United States. Venezuela is its fifth-largest oil supplier, a trade relationship which has hobbled Washington’s reactions to Chavez’s adventures.

Venezuela has already bought fighter jets, submarines and guns from Russia. And add to the equation Venezuela’s burgeoning friendship with Iran, another bete noire for the Americans.

Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (L) and Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez meet at Novo Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow July 22, 2008. REUTERS/Miraflores Palace/Handout (RUSSIA)Chavez seems to enjoy goading the Bush administration almost for the fun of it. He has variously called President George W. Bush a donkey, a drunk, and in a U.N. speech, the Devil.”

The naval exercises with Russia will not be as easy for Washington to brush off as the name-calling.

Relations between Washington and Moscow are tense because of Russia’s intervention in Georgia in August. The Kremlin was angered by the United States’ sending a naval flotilla to the Black Sea to show support for Georgia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev even asked how Washington would feel if Russian sent aid vessels to the Caribbean.

During the Cold War, Russian had a substantial military presence in Cuba and was involved behind the scenes in the Central American wars of the 1980s. With the Soviet Union’s collapse, all that ended.

But Russian officials have made it clear recently that Moscow is ready to play a role on the world stage again.

Meanwhile the United States’ Fourth Fleet this year began patrolling Latin American waters for the first time in 50 years, a move that Chavez denounced but that has also concerned moderate countries such as Brazil.

The Venezuela-Russia exercises are due to take place days after the U.S. presidential election - an event that will complicate any response from Washington and at the same time divert world attention.

      

   

July 25th, 2008

Mandelson fends off EU’s back seat drivers

Posted by: Robin Pomeroy

Mandelson - keep your hands off the wheelImagine driving a car with 27 people on the back seat trying to steer. That’s the image Peter Mandelson painted of his role negotiating at the World Trade Organisation on behalf of all European Union countries - some of which are not entirely supportive of the way he is taking things.

Although the EU gave the trade commissioner a negotiating mandate for the crunch talks under way in Geneva, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, hardly Mandelson’s greatest fan, said he would not sign up to the deal on the table.

Not only does Mandelson have to put up with public barbs from the French leader, he also has to report back daily to national EU delegates who have followed him to Geneva to ensure he keeps to the mandate they gave him. In his blog, Mandelson says it will increasingly be the case in the EU that member states will have to learn to keep quiet and let their representative do the talking.

“There is no question that the decision to negotiate collectively in the WTO gives European member states much greater weight in the WTO and the global trading system, but it does require 27 proud diplomatic services to take a back seat to the EU’s negotiators at exactly the moment when every instinct tells them to have a hand on the wheel,” he said.

“It’s a reminder that so much of the modern European experience of foreign affairs will involve developing the habits of coordination that give us a united voice and role in the world.”

The European Commission has been negotiating on behalf of EU member states for many years on big ticket issues like trade and climate change, but with Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty to reform the bloc’s institutions and create an EU foreign policy supremo, do Europeans still relish the idea of Brussels representing them on the global stage?

July 23rd, 2008

Do you Doha? Cutting through the jargon at the WTO

Posted by: Robin Pomeroy

Where is green beige, 54 the same as 60, and the potato a tropical vegetable? Welcome to the Through the Looking Glass world of the World Trade Organisation.

Although the issues being discussed in Geneva this week could ultimately affect everyone on the planet in terms of their effect on the economy, prices and employment, understanding the jargon of the ‘Doha round’ is reserved for a privileged few who can decipher its twisted language and countless acronyms.

For those like me who are new to covering the WTO, my advice is don’t look for the ‘Green Room’ where ministers and ambassadors are negotiating the trade liberalisation - it’s actually beige. (You’re not allowed in anyway, so steel yourself for hours pacing the hallway downstairs).wto.jpg

Next: know your NAMA from your TRIPS. Almost every aspect of trade is referred to by its acronym. Why say ‘industrial goods’ when you could be talking about NAMA (Non-Agricultural Market Access)? Make sure you know the difference between an LDC (least developed country) and an SVE (small and vulnerable economy), and remember that an MFN (most favoured nation) is nothing of the sort (under WTO rules, all trading partners have to be treated equally. Having MFN status means you are the same as all the others).

Confused? I can highly recommend the European Commission’s online trade glossary.

As for potatoes, they have been considered for inclusion in a list of ‘tropical products’, alongside papaya and coffee, which could be due for a boost from extra tariff cuts. (Potatoes, after all, originated in tropical areas of the Americas, so it’s only logical …)

And when it comes to the numbers, bring a calculator and a sense of humour. When asked whether the European Union was offering to cut its import tariffs by an average of 54 percent, as previously stated, or 60 percent as proposed by European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, French Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Idrac kept a straight face and replied: “54 and 60, c’est la meme chose” (it’s the same thing).