Global Investing

Pickens sees oil at $150… here’s a look at his track record

May 20, 2008

T. Boone Pickens told broadcaster CNBC he expected crude oil prices to keeping going up. “I think we’ll get to $150 this year,” he said. Analysts at Birinyi Associates, Inc. today put his projections over the past two years against the movement in the price of oil. They concluded the oil investor’s views shouldn’t be ignored.

oil_price_pickens1.jpg

1 Was surprised oil went down this much (19 month low) still thinks oil will average $70 in 2007
2 Could exceed $70 in 2007
3 Oil will reach $75 before $55
4 Oil will likely reach $78 this year
5 Says $4.50 gasoline will be possible this summer
6 Oil will average $70 for rest of 2007pickens_image.jpg
7 “No way you can be short oil”
8 Oil may surpass $100 on a geopolitical event and will rise to $80 within 6 months
9 $80 oil could push US into recession
1 0 Oil to retreat before hitting $100
1 1 Oil to hit $100 within a year
1 2 Oil to hit $100 within 6 months
1 3 $100 oil will be routine
1 4 Oil to decline by $10 to $15 in 2nd quarter, which would be to $83
1 5 Oil to stay above $100 in 2nd quarter
1 6 Reversed bet on oil and thinks it will now rise. Covered his short and is now long
1 7 Thinks oil wil rise to $150 by end of 2008
1 8 Thinks oil will go to $150 in 2008

– Graphic courtesy of Birinyi Associates, Inc.

Comments
36 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

in 2-3 years oil will reach 300 dollars.
the price of oil is going up since 1996 logaritmicly.
the reason for that is not enough supply.
after 300 $ more solar energy will be produced.

Posted by dr zagli | Report as abusive
 

Simple way to quiet Mr. Pickens …

Force the NYMEX Board to raise margin requirements on the front 3 delivery months to 50% and you’ll see most of the 138 milliion barrels Goldman, Merrill, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have been hoarding in collusion with their refining clients. These guys should be in jail for putting our country and the world in this financial state.

Posted by John P. Crowley | Report as abusive
 

Pickens was talking oil down just a couple of months ago on the “Squawk box” when it was hovering around $100 per barrel. He emphatically stated a short position on oil at this level.
Goldmine – a hole in ground with a liar at the top

Posted by PantsOnFire | Report as abusive
 

We must all take renewable energy from wind, tide, wave and solar seriously. It’s time that governments see this and put the fiscal framework in place to provide some alternative to the finite fossil resources that the world has become so dependent on.

Posted by Paul Mc Sweeney | Report as abusive
 

19 I Think oil will go to $150 in Nov 2008

Posted by uberoill | Report as abusive
 

The only way to reduce oil prices is to reduce usage. Cut use in every way possible. Restrict supply where necessary.

Posted by P S Lak | Report as abusive
 

We must restrict the use of fossils. Put a ceilling on manufacturing of four wheelers, raise taxes on four wheelers manufacturing, it will be painfull in the short term but long term only answer is renewables and we must learn to reduce our dependance on fossil fuels.

Posted by j jani | Report as abusive
 

wait you will see oil falling to$75. it is game of speculation. They(mighty four)pass on their long position to us.Donot be long .

Posted by rajesh | Report as abusive
 

The old school of thought says short oil at this high level. That what i have been doing.I STOP DOING THIS LAST NIGHT.The new thoughts are oil is cheap at this level and imagine 129 to 500 is just a number that it is trying to reach.No economics just PURE numbers AT THIS STAGE.WITH IMMENSE CAPITAL PUSHING IT,IT IS LIKE 13CENTS GOING TO 50CENTS.

Posted by neo | Report as abusive
 

I feel hedge fund manager like T.Boon.Pickens should refrain from commenting on future oil prices. Such speculation will lead to high prices and may benefit those parties who have huge investment in oil futures. Speculative comments on such sensitive matters which affects the economies across the world should be prohibited.

 

Not to boast…I picked oil at 100 last August and bought 25k of options to back it up.
I expect to see Oil @ 145 by July and 150 by Aug in anticipation of hurricane season. Maybe sooner if Chavez or Iran gets hit by Bush..
The train left the station at 120 abd its gaining speed……T

Posted by Anthony R | Report as abusive
 

You can use a linear regression from jan/07 to see when oil will get to 150, 200, etc. You dont need to be a billionaire to notice that. I make less than 20K per year and can make this kind of prediction with the same precision.

Posted by Mark Woelfert | Report as abusive
 

I told people last year in Government departments that this 50% rise is to be i said last year oil is going to $150 and if you want to make completely sure of this follow it up! So sines I had all ready seen this coming you can tack it from me that for the governments in power now all over the world can make magic happen so it really is a good thing globally as they have the ultimate advantage of trying what they want to help their own economics with out to much interference from opposition.

 

Oil should weaken from this levels, but I see strong support at $100, and eventually reaching $150. The chart shows a beautiful Elliot Wave progression and we should currently be in the first wave.

Posted by Albert Judah | Report as abusive
 

While it is laudable putting more emphasis on “renewable” energy resources isn’t not the answer. Wind, tide, solar, and biofuels combined can supplement but will never equal or replace coal and oil now or ever. There is oil available off our shores and under our lands. We should be tapping it. Why are we sitting idly by smacking the hands of American companies waiting to drill while China drills for oil off shore of Cuba?? I think the global warming carbon hysteria is also partly to blame. We can’t accurately predict wx from day to day but we can stop global warming if we’re willing to hamstring our economy.

Posted by Steve C. | Report as abusive
 

Just by looking at the graph, we all know that oil prices will surely go up be it at $140, $150, or $200. Today, it peaked up to $134. So, a $150 prediction is not at all improbable. What we should look into are renewable sources of energy, not to replace oil completely but as alternative sources so as not to exhaust the present supply in oil.

 

I think Oil will jump above $140, coz of it’s limited in the world, and the demand increase continuesly. Try to find an alternative energy perhaps will help world economy.

 

it’s all a speculation game. oil will be back down to 75… that is its IV.

Posted by GQ | Report as abusive
 

A famous saying attributed to Benjamin Disraeli is, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics”.

Crude oil may cross $160 a barrel at the time of Beijing Olympic. That is the time of high demand for this year. Crude oil price already crossed $134 a barrel this week. At the current trend if we add 40% than it may cross $187.6 a barrel in January 2009.

Thank god there is no major war at present. I am afraid if war or something starts in the world than crude oil may cross $300 a barrel.

Posted by A.Y. | Report as abusive
 

The best technicain in the world has predicted the exact high for the last 6 months. That is $135 per barrel, we hit it yesterday!

Now the market will be down until June 23rd. Lookout below here we come mr speculator. Look for a $22 drop.
Ant techy can see it on the chart.

I rest my case>

Check out harborinvestments.com you will see.

 

Indonesia has raised prices at the pump by nearly 30 per cent because of the surging cost of oil and gas on the global market, the government said.

Posted by Sandy | Report as abusive
 

I predict the upward trend to weaken, especially when notable speculators like Pickens come out to say such words, they are trying to offload their positions while encouraging the general public to go long on oil.

Oil will rise to $150 but profit-taking is due in the short term.

http://jeflin.net

 

It’s look like oil will heavy to break $135.xx, if so it will fall to 124.34 correction area.

 

Just by looking at the graph, we all know that oil prices will surely go up be it at $140, $150, or $200. Today, it peaked up to $134. So, a $150 prediction is not at all improbable. What we should look into are renewable sources of energy, not to replace oil completely but as alternative sources so as not to exhaust the present supply in oil.

http://www.efm.lk

 

My happiest moment will be when I see all of you oil hucksters try to sell at the same time. I am going to buy a new digital camera and sit in the park to record your arrival with earthly belongings in shopping carts.Pickens types will win. While hyping hyping in public they are selling in private. They will sell until it hits $100 and then the hold cycle with the buying cycle setting in again at $57. You manipulated folks are going to make a few rich. The OPEC folks are the only ones recognizing the manipulation. I love the linear regression guy. A classic case of being logical with faulty logic.

Posted by D.Barber | Report as abusive
 

He doesn’t know what he is talking about and I am not interested in his track record. This kind of reporting is useless. Why don’t your ask the President to do something about it. The republicans don’t have a chance this fall.

Posted by T R Newman | Report as abusive
 

It will go up up up, I think $180 by year end, $250 year end 2009, they have declared economic war in the US, they know we will pay any prive until we all get 4 cylinder 1.6 liter engines, good luck on getting rid of the SUV’s.

Posted by john taylor | Report as abusive
 

if everyone just cuts back on gas and energy use 20 percent which is easy enough for most of us, it will collapse demand at the margin and bring oil back down. If done globally it will have a profound effect and the speculators will bet the other way further pushing down the price of oil rapidly.

Posted by Brian | Report as abusive
 

as I predict before, oil just turn around 124.xx – 133.xx, this is consolidation area. any break this area may change tje minor trend

 

I am seriously doubtful about the demand-supply theory. At least one third of the current oil price is driven by speculation.

 

Written my thoughts on the oil trend here.
http://jeflin.net/2008/06/05/bull-versus -bear-battle-rages-on/

 

Oil significantly spike previous high. Now $137.750 according to 261 FE, oil will be reach $164.14.
What will significantly effect for global economy.

 

Immigration will obliterate any loss of demand, current immigration levels exceed 2%

Posted by Smitty | Report as abusive
 

Oil market still trying goes up as spekulan pressure. for a while it will around up from 136.00 to reach next target 147.17.

 

Here we are, and T boon was correct in his oil price prediction.

It shot up to the headline’s call for a while, then came back down, then back up. Oil companies are still making tons of money, with the unstable perception of the middle east and all.

To compare oil companies in all exchanges you can always visit a website like google finance, or this one that lets you check how corps are doing like this one:

http://www.stockmarketquotelist.com

Posted by Stock Market | Report as abusive
 

Tboone was correct in his assertion of the price of oil… for a time. then the oil companies realised that no one was buying any oil. Crazy prices only lead to a nice environmentally friendly conservation. Oil hovered at $150 yes, then crashed back down again when the reserves kept increasing.

 

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