Global Investing

Trading Obama and McCain contracts

September 30, 2008

Which one to bet?Politicians are busy blaming betting in financial markets for the recent market turmoil, with Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of euro zone finance ministers, urging investors to stop playing a “casino game” with their shares this week.

But dare-devil operators in financial markets have shown no sign of halting their innovation in financial instruments, which are enabling investors to bet on everything from Academy Award winners to space travelling.

One of the most traded contracts on trading platform Intrade is the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election, due in just over a month.

The Barack Obama contract, based on the U.S. dollar, rose 1.5 points to 62.5, with 5,857 contracts traded on Tuesday. The level is just below a record high set in mid-July.

The John McCain contract fell half a point to 37.6, having hit an all-time high only a few weeks ago.

Die-hard Hillary Clinton fans are still betting on the New York senator to win the presidential election, with the Clinton contract rising 0.4 point to 3.2.

Barack Obama contract:

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Comments
6 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

The Intrade prices really understate Obama’s shift in the past 10 days. On nearly every other betting site and prediction market Obama is trading at up to 70% having made a radical shift from about 55% in the past 10 days.

Here is one such market which links to the other actively traded markets: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_wi n_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election

 

Oh and you can get odds of 150/1 or better in the UK on Hillary winning. That equates to a less than 1% chance of winning. Intrade’s commission structure seems to badly price low probability events.

 

A recent feature on CNBC’s Squawk Box claimed that Intrade has roughly a 2%margin or error…….that’s better than the Gallup Poll.

I think we’re seeing a new form of polling with prediction markets

Posted by Monkey | Report as abusive
 

The perfect picture of the Empty Suit Obama.

He is always stuttering and pausing trying to find the next big word that can make him look smart!
NO OBAMA!
We do like straight talk!
NO OBAMA!

Posted by DEM now IND | Report as abusive
 

OBAMA’S “ACORN” ORGANIZATION IS STILL REGISTERING VOTERS. MANY ARE ILLEGAL, OR DEAD, OR DUPLICATES. MANY COLLEGE STUDENTS ARE VOTING IN THEIR HOME TOWN, AS WELL AS IN THE TOWN WHERE THEY GO TO SCHOOL. HOMELESS PEOPLE, DEMENTIA RESIDENTS IN NURSING HOMES, ETC. ARE BEING REGISTERED AND VOTING EARLY. ALL STATES SHOULD REQUIRE A PHOTO ID AND A WAY TO CHECK OFF VOTERS (VIA SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, ETC.).

DURING THE DEBATE, SENATOR JOHN McCAIN SHOWED HIS REAL LIFE EXPERIENCE. HIS REMARKS WERE FROM PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE.

THE JUNIOR SENATOR OBAMA SOUNDED LIKE HE WAS MAKING A BOOK REPORT FROM SOMETHING HE HAD JUST READ.

UNTIL THE BAILOUT SITUATION IS RESOLVED — THEY BOTH NEED TO GET BACK TO DC TO DO THEIR SENATE JOBS. THAT’S WHAT THEY’RE BEING PAID TO DO.

I believe the people who walked away with tons of money should be responsible for the bail out.

If the government agrees to pay off mortgages for people who bought homes they could not afford — then the government needs to pay off ALL mortgages for ALL legal American citizens.

I don’t want my tax payments used to pay off somebody else’s home!

I PERSONALLY AM AGAINST A WALL STREET BAILOUT BUT AT LEAST FORKING OVER A THIRD OF THE MONEY — WITH THE REST CONTINGENT ON EFFECTIVENESS — MAKES SENSE.

I AM TOTALLY AGAINST GIVING 10% TO ORGANIZATIONS LIKE “ACORN”. PEOPLE SHOULD NOT BUY HOMES THEY CAN’T AFFORD. DO NOT BAIL THEM OUT.

Junior Senator Obama is a ZERO – “OBAMA FIRST”!

Senator McCain is a HERO – “COUNTRY FIRST”!

TELL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE in THE HOUSE & SENATE HOW YOU FEEL – Email THEM NOW
SAVE These Websites on Word to your DESK TOP FOR FUTURE USE:

Email your House of Representative: (THIS IS AN IMPROVED WEBSITE)
https://forms.house.gov/wyr/welcome.shtm l

Email your Senator(S)
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_in formation/senators_cfm.cfm?State=FL

Or use Drop down list here:
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_in formation/senators_cfm.cfm?OrderBy=state &Sort=ASC

Here is Nancy Pelosi email
AmericanVoices@mail.house.gov, sf.nancy@mail.house.gov

Dean Howard
Deanh@DNC.org
howarddean@dnc.org

Posted by REPLACE DO-NOTHING DEMS IN CONGRESS | Report as abusive
 

Judging by the \”REPLACE DO-NOTHING DEMS IN CONGRESS\” comments the Republican party has it\’s own share of the mentally debilitated on its rolls. It is much more interesting to read about the probability of the polls or the calculations bettors are using to predict the outcome of the election, on this web site at least, than to have to read such sophmoric, or should I say moronic, drivel.

 

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