Next week: Half time…
QE, some version of it or even the thought of it, seems to have raised all boats yet again — for a bit at least. You’d not really guess it from all the brinkmanship, crisis management and apocalyptic debates of the past month, but June has so far turned out to be a fairly upbeat month – weirdly. World equities are up more than 6 percent since June, lead by a 20 percent jump in European bank stocks and even a 20 percent jump in depressed Greek stocks. The Spanish may found themselves at the centre of the euro debt storm now, but even 10-year Spanish debt yields have returned to June 1 levels after briefly toying with record highs above 7% in and around its own bank bailout and the Greek election. And the likes of Italian and Irish borrowing rates are actually down this month. Ok, all that’s after a lousy May that blew up most of the LTRO-inspired first-quarter market gains. But, on a broad global level at least, stocks are still in the black for the year so far. It was certainly “sell in May” yet again this year, but it’s open question whether you stay away til St Ledgers day in September, as the hoary old adage would have it.
On the euro story, the Greeks didn’t go for the nuclear option last weekend at least and it looks like there are some serious proposals on the EU summit table for next week – talk of banking union, EFSF/ESM bond buying programmes, euro bills if not bonds, EIB infrastructure/project bonds to try and catalyse some growth, and reasonable flexibility from Berlin and others on bailout austerity demands. The Fed has announced that it will twist again like it did last summer, by extending the Treasury yield curve programme by more than a quarter of a trillion dollars, and there are still hopes of it at least raising the prospect of more direct QE. The BoE is already chomping at that bit, as well as lending direct to SMEs, and most investors expect some further easing from the ECB in the weeks and months ahead.
Of course all that could disappoint once more and expectations are getting pumped up again as per June market performance numbers. The EU summit won’t deliver on everything, but there is some realization at least that they need to talk turkey on ways to prevent repeated rolling creditor strikes locking out governments out of the most basic of financing — only then have those very same creditors shun countries again when they agree to punishing fiscal adjustments. A credible growth plan helps a little but some pooling of debt looks unavoidable unless they seriously want to remain in perma-crisis for the rest of the year and probably many years to come. It may be a step too far before next year’s German elections, but surely even Berlin can now see that the bill gets ever higher the longer they wait.
The EBA deadline for 9% bank capital ratios next week may also bear some watching. While it should be a formality at this late stage, you’d wonder whether the passing of June 30 marker might see some of the cash hoarding at banks leak back to other financial markets (rather than being deposited straight back at the ECB as window dressing dominates)
And the half-year mark for investors will be a sobering review, meantime. H1 showed clearly how transitory QE and liquidity pumping is, even if it’s necessary to ward of deflationary spiral associated with the ongoing deleveraging of banks, households and governments and broad money contraction in developed world economies. The second half looks like it will tilt back toward the US elections and fiscal issues there – but it’s hardly a good news story stateside now either.
Next week’s global financial events diary includes the following
US May new home sales/permits Mon
Israel rate decision Mon
Belgium govt bond auction Mon
French June consumer confidence Tues
UK May govt borrowing data Tues
US June consumer confidence/May house prices Tues
Hungary rate decision Tues
US 2-yr Treasury auction Tues
German June inflation Weds
Italy June biz confidence Weds
US 5-yr T auction Weds
German June unemployment Thurs
EZ June biz/consumer sentiment Thurs
Italy govt bond auction Thurs
US/UK Q1 GDP revisions Thurs
Czech rate decision Thurs
US 7-yr T auction Thurs
Japan May unemployment/June CPI Fri
EU Summit Thurs/Fri
EZ June flash CPI/May M3, credit data Fri
BoE financial stability report Fri
US June Chicago PMI/UoMich sentiment Fri
EBA deadline for 9% European bank capital buffers Sat
Cyprus takes EU Presidency Sun
Mexico Presidential elections Sun