More EM central banks join the easing crew
Taiwan and Philippines have joined the easing crew. Taiwan cut interbank lending rates for the first time in 33 months on Friday while Philippines lowered the rate it pays banks on short-term special deposits. Hardly surprising. Given South Koreas’s shock rate cut on Thursday, its first in over three years, and China’s two rate cuts in quick succession, the spread of monetary easing across Asia looks inevitable. Markets are now betting the Reserve Bank of India will also cut rates in July.
And not just in Asia. Brazil last week cut rates for the eighth straight time and Russia’s central bank, while holding rates steady, amended its language to signal it was amenable to changing its policy stance if required.
Worries about a growth collapse are clearly gathering pace. So how much room do central banks have to cut rates? Compared with Europe or the United States, certainly a lot. And with the exception of Indonesia and Philippines, interest rates in most countries are well above 2009 crisis lows. But Deutsche Bank analysts, who applied a variation of the Taylor rule (a monetary policy parameter stipulating how much nominal interest rates can be changed relative to inflation or output), conclude that in Asia, only Vietnam and Thailand have much room to cut rates. Malaysia and China have less scope to do so and the others not at all (Their model did not work well for India).
Deutsche said of Korea:
After this week’s rate cut, our model suggests rates are essentially in line with the rule as defined by the past behaviour of the Bank of Korea
But there are also doubts that the doves can deliver.
I wrote here last week about how Brazil’s 11-month long easing cycle has borne little fruit and questioned how much immediate benefit Korea’s export-reliant economy will derive from a rate cut. Equity markets have reacted poorly to the rate cuts, interpreting them as proof of central banks’ nervousness rather than as a catalyst for spurring growth. Societe Generale analysts are pessimistic of emerging central banks’ ability this time to stem the rot. They write:
Investors are scared about the seriousness of the disease, it seems, but no longer trust the doctors.