Strike on Iran: bets are off

November 21, 2012

Spread betters have drastically cut their expectations of a U.S. or Israeli air strike on Iran since Barack Obama’s re-election earlier this month.

Intrade, a Dublin-based online exchange, is showing 20 percent of its clients seeing a strike by June 2013, and 33 percent by Dec 2013.

Those expectations are not tiny, but they are down sharply from 35 and 50 percent, respectively, just before the election.

Analysts think elections in Israel in January – expected to result in victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – and Iran in June also cut the chances of Israel attacking Iran any time soon.

According to Alastair Newton, political risk analyst at Nomura:

Washington and European capitals will not only look to re-engage Tehran at the negotiating table early in the New Year  - a potential brake on military action – but also bring pressure to bear on Mr Netanyahu to hold fire at least until after Iran’s presidential election.

Israel’s air strikes on the Gaza Strip also make an imminent strike on Iran less likely, says Emad Mostaque, strategist at Religare.

 Key impact of the current conflagration is that it reduces the chance of an Iran conflict to almost 0% prior to February. Israel can’t afford a potential four-front conflict – Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and Iran.

Mostaque adds though that:

This does raise a strike probability for Q2 2013

2 comments

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It is time to stop talking and writing about “striking” Iran as if it like going to the supermarket. There is absolutely no justification in even talking about such an idiotic action. So, people should just shut up about all this stupid nonsense.

Posted by Logical123 | Report as abusive

The details of an Israeli attack on Iran are revealed in Jonathan Bloomfield’s award-winning book, “Palestine.”

Posted by Shuayb | Report as abusive