Weekly Radar: A ‘sudden stop’ in emerging markets?
Turkey’s lira, South Africa’s rand and South Korea’s won have all lunged, local currency debt yields have suddenly surged, there’s an intense investor focus on domestic political risks again and governments like Brazil who were taxing what they feared were excessive foreign investment over the past couple of years have U-turned as those flows evaporate.
What some have feared for many months may well be materializing – a ‘sudden stop’ in financing flows to emerging markets as the makings of a perfect storm gathers. With the Fed mulling some reduction in the amount of dollars it’s pumping into the world, the prospect of a rare and protracted rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields potentially changes entire EM investment metrics for U.S. funds (who make up almost half of the world’s private institutional investors) and from markets which have willingly or not been some of the biggest beneficiaries of QE in recent years but also to where where , by some estimates, nearly $8 trillion of FDI and portfolio flows have flowed over the past decade. It doesn’t even have to mean a reversal of capital already in emerging markets, but even a sudden stop in new flows there could seriously undermine the currency and debt markets of countries heavily dependent on rolling foreign financing – those with large current account gaps to finance. As emerging and global economic growth has eased and return on equity sinks, emerging equity markets have already underperformed for three years now. But the biggest wave of recent investment in EM had been into its bond markets, most recently to higher-yielding local-currency debt markets. And it’s these flows that could dry up rather quickly and shockingly, with all the attendant pressure on currency rates and vice versa. For context, a record of more than $410 billion new sovereign and corporate bonds from emerging economies were sold last year alone, according to JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley estimates show emerging companies alone have sold some $130 billion worth of new debt so far this year – up 30 percent on last year and more than twice the same period in 2011.
Already we’re seeing big hits to big current account deficit countries Turkey and South Africa in this region and, as is so often the case in emerging markets, the withdrawal of capital leads to an intense focus on domestic and political risks. These are two of the five biggest destination for bond flows over the past four years, a list –measured on flows as share of GDP – also includes Poland and Czech Republic. Mexico is top of the list, but many see its geographic and financial proximity to the US insulating it.
So, is this a 1997/1998 redux? That’s certainly a big fear. The similarities are obvious – building dollar strength, higher US Treasury yields and a repatriation of US investment to a domestic ‘emerging market’ (Silicone Valley and the dot.coms in the late 1990s); a sharp drop in Japan’s yen which upset the competitive landscape in Asia; narrowing global growth differentials; some signs of excessive monetary easing in emerging economies and concern about credit bubbles in China and elsewhere; the sudden magnifying of domestic political, social and policy risks etc etc.
Of course, it’s also very different from then in many ways – fewer currency pegs to concentrate and magnify the shocks; huge hard cash reserves built up as buffers against sudden stops; still superior underlying growth rates; more robust market structures; better government and corporate balance sheets etc etc.
However, emerging markets still suffer from two things 1) being bucketed together in EM-labelled investment piles which feed contagion despite obvious differences between countries 2) relative illiquidity of these markets – it’s been straightforward and smooth in marketing and selling bonds to investment firms with a big appetite for risk and yield - but there is a real fear that if these funds suddenly wanted to liquidate many of these bonds in a hurry, the increasingly risk-averse banking/broker community is in no shape to intermediate the flows – risking sharp price moves and outright price disappearance.
The Fed’s direction may hold the key, but the anxiety is already clearly having an impact.
Next Week’s global financial events and data:
China May trade data Sat
China May inflation/industrial output/retail sales Sun
Swiss May jobless Mon
BoJ decision/presser Tues
Malaysia rate decision Tues
UK April industrial/manufacturing data Tues
UK 10-yr gilt auction Tues
US 2-yr Treasury auction Tues
German 2-yr govt bond auction Weds
UK May jobless Weds
EZ April production Weds
US 10-yr Treasury auction Weds
Iceland/Croatia rate decisions Weds
Italy govt bond auction Thurs
UK 20-yr gilt auction Thurs
US May retail sales Thurs
US 30-yr Treasury auction Thurs
Chile rate decision Thurs
Iran Presidential elections Fri
Japan 5-yr govt bond auction Fri
Belgian govt bond auction Fri
EZ May inflation/Q1 jobless Fri
US May production/PPI, Q1 current account Fri
G8 summit, Mon 17th