Revitalised West knocks Brazil, Russia off global growth Top-30

November 27, 2013

By Shadi Bushra

Yet another sign of the growth convergence between developed and emerging markets. Two  of the “BRIC’ countries have dropped out of the Top-30 in a growth index compiled by political risk consultancy Maplecroft, while several Western powerhouses have nudged their way onto the list.

Maplecroft’s 2014 Growth Opportunities Atlas showed that Brazil and Russia — the B and R of the BRIC bloc — had dropped 26 and 41 places, respectively – due to slow economic reforms and diversification.  The United States, Australia and Germany meanwhile broke into the top 30 on the  index, which evaluates 173 countries on their growth prospects over the next 20 years.

The study’s results are indicative of the broader pattern this year of an emerging markets slowdown after years of robust growth fuelled by cheap money from the West and a decade of booming trade. But the two other BRIC countries — India and China — have retained their top spots, albeit with lower absolute scores. And India overtook China for first place due to its “catch-up growth potential,”  Maplecroft’s report said.

The index also highlights a view that has been gaining increasing currency in recent times — that the term emerging markets is a actually a convenient catch-all phrase that masks the diversity within the group it supposedly describes. So although the report disparages Brazil and Russia’s failure to use a decade-long commodity boom to invest in long-term growth, it offers Indonesia (3rd), Turkey (13th) and Nigeria (18th) as possible alternatives.

Meanwhile the significant improvement in key Western economies, including France and Britain, appears to signal that Europe is ready to join the global recovery.

There may be clouds on the horizon however.  Maplecroft warns that the so-called tapering of U.S. monetary stimulus could have “uncertain” effects. That is a prospect that should worry the West as well as the emerging markets that rely on it for investment.

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